2024 US Presidential Election
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Noble-Surfer
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GDC
lostinwales
Derek Smalls
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Soul Requiem
navyblueshorts
JuliusHMarx
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Duty281
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2024 US Presidential Election
First topic message reminder :
Thought we should have a thread on it, as Ron DeSantis is expected to launch his campaign on Twitter this evening. He's trailing Trump by a big margin for the Republican nomination, around 37% behind in the polling average. But there's a lot of time for things to change and the oddsmakers only have DeSantis as a 2/1 outsider, against Trump's 2/5. Doesn't appear to be any other serious contenders for the Republican nomination at this point.
Biden is expected to run again and defend his crown, but his advancing age (he's into his 80s now) and low approval ratings means he may be vulnerable to a Democratic challenger. The most likely challenger seems to be Robert Kennedy Jr. who has already announced his candidacy and has polled as high as 21%, but that was still 49% behind Biden. As such, Biden's a 2/9 clear favourite to be the Democrat nominee in 2024, but if he drops out for whatever reason then the race is wide open.
Only 531 days until the election...
Thought we should have a thread on it, as Ron DeSantis is expected to launch his campaign on Twitter this evening. He's trailing Trump by a big margin for the Republican nomination, around 37% behind in the polling average. But there's a lot of time for things to change and the oddsmakers only have DeSantis as a 2/1 outsider, against Trump's 2/5. Doesn't appear to be any other serious contenders for the Republican nomination at this point.
Biden is expected to run again and defend his crown, but his advancing age (he's into his 80s now) and low approval ratings means he may be vulnerable to a Democratic challenger. The most likely challenger seems to be Robert Kennedy Jr. who has already announced his candidacy and has polled as high as 21%, but that was still 49% behind Biden. As such, Biden's a 2/9 clear favourite to be the Democrat nominee in 2024, but if he drops out for whatever reason then the race is wide open.
Only 531 days until the election...
Duty281- Posts : 34052
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
But it's going to return the same voting shares as 'moderate New Hampshire'.
GDC- Posts : 10
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Shows that the Republican party nationwide - regardless of states - is probably heavily Trump-ifed.
GDC- Posts : 10
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
1) Create an account on the 12th May 2020.
2) Make first post on the 18th January 2024.
3) Make nine more posts in the space of three minutes.
4) ??
2) Make first post on the 18th January 2024.
3) Make nine more posts in the space of three minutes.
4) ??
Duty281- Posts : 34052
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lostinwales likes this post
Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Certainly encourage any new posters to try to fit their points in to fewer posts for sure..
Trump has certain factors going in to his favor at the moment..
1. Trump's age........While one assumes if Haley and Desantis were to unite against Trump as a ticket though their chances would be enhanced and quite favorable should they lose both are off any potential VP slot under Trump...Or any other position of power.....Trump is what 76 ?? has a crap diet and is in danger of impeachment anyway....
The Trump VP slot is enticing...Last one in has a chance of a deal with Trump.
2. VP is very enticing....Biden is tanking with Muslims over Gaza......and though they don't contribute greatly as a whole in regards to population....Michigan and Pennsylvania are two of the States where concentration is highest.....Both swing States.
Should Biden pivot to appease them.....Then his war chest will diminish greatly.....While I think Biden has mishandled Israel I do have some sympathy for his predicament..
3. TV debates......Huge problem for the Democrats is Biden struggles to be coherent for 5 minutes how is he going to get through 3 debates ??.......Since 1976 they have been written in to the electoral cycle.......Think they may get written out this time and that brings in trouble with the Establishment media that love them and the notion of fairplay.
Certainly polls featuring Biden v opponent are meaningless before these debates....and they are still 8 months away.
You see Trump's VP slot will be very appealling.......DeSantis/Haley can beat him but would they want to take the chance ??
4. Have a great weekend.
Trump has certain factors going in to his favor at the moment..
1. Trump's age........While one assumes if Haley and Desantis were to unite against Trump as a ticket though their chances would be enhanced and quite favorable should they lose both are off any potential VP slot under Trump...Or any other position of power.....Trump is what 76 ?? has a crap diet and is in danger of impeachment anyway....
The Trump VP slot is enticing...Last one in has a chance of a deal with Trump.
2. VP is very enticing....Biden is tanking with Muslims over Gaza......and though they don't contribute greatly as a whole in regards to population....Michigan and Pennsylvania are two of the States where concentration is highest.....Both swing States.
Should Biden pivot to appease them.....Then his war chest will diminish greatly.....While I think Biden has mishandled Israel I do have some sympathy for his predicament..
3. TV debates......Huge problem for the Democrats is Biden struggles to be coherent for 5 minutes how is he going to get through 3 debates ??.......Since 1976 they have been written in to the electoral cycle.......Think they may get written out this time and that brings in trouble with the Establishment media that love them and the notion of fairplay.
Certainly polls featuring Biden v opponent are meaningless before these debates....and they are still 8 months away.
You see Trump's VP slot will be very appealling.......DeSantis/Haley can beat him but would they want to take the chance ??
4. Have a great weekend.
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40654
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
5. Civic.
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
You say Biden cant stay coherent for 5 minutes when Trump hasnt said a coherent thing for the better part of a decade.
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navyblueshorts and lostinwales like this post
Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Trump got Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi mixed up the other day. Mind you, he also sexually assaults women and then doesn't remember meeting them, so he seems to have a problem in that general area.
JuliusHMarx- julius
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Ron DeSantis has thrown in the towel. Slightly surprising he's done this this early - clearly the effort of campaigning in 99 counties and not winning a single one has taken it out of him.
He was briefly ahead in the race, perhaps, around November 2022-January 2023, and his star looked very ascendant after the midterms. But he collapsed very quickly as his campaign reminded everyone of Jeb in 2016.
It's a tidy boost for Trump, not that he really needs it. DeSantis has endorsed Trump and most of his vote should go to the former President.
He was briefly ahead in the race, perhaps, around November 2022-January 2023, and his star looked very ascendant after the midterms. But he collapsed very quickly as his campaign reminded everyone of Jeb in 2016.
It's a tidy boost for Trump, not that he really needs it. DeSantis has endorsed Trump and most of his vote should go to the former President.
Duty281- Posts : 34052
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
DeSantis endorsing Trump, hmmm. I'd find it hard to stomach endorsing a candidate who openly mocked me! I guess politics is a different matter as no doubt DeSantis keeping his hopes on 4 years time so doesn't want to alienate Trump support/far right which could scupper his chances in future but just shows no prinicples.
mountain man- Posts : 3140
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
JuliusHMarx wrote:Trump got Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi mixed up the other day. Mind you, he also sexually assaults women and then doesn't remember meeting them, so he seems to have a problem in that general area.
I imagine 90% of Men are sexual predators with the criteria surrounding sexual misconduct these days...I'm sure well known "Groper Biden" would agree with me..
As for being found guilty in Manhattan the most Liberal borough of New York well that was a surprise...Just like the verdict in Georgia will be..
As for New Hampshire.........The race would be dead if it was a closed primary...Trump leads 65-25 with Republicans there........
Not sure there are enough independents for Haley to overturn that....Hope not anyway.
Speaking to my brother yesterday he thinks Biden can avoid the debates by saying he doesn't want to debate with a criminal.....Whether that washes or not we will see....Pretty much acknowledged that Biden won't survive three debates.
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40654
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
90% of men are sexual predators?
Erm no don't think so.
Erm no don't think so.
mountain man- Posts : 3140
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navyblueshorts likes this post
Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
mountain man wrote:90% of men are sexual predators?
Erm no don't think so.
91% then.
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40654
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
mountain man wrote:DeSantis endorsing Trump, hmmm. I'd find it hard to stomach endorsing a candidate who openly mocked me! I guess politics is a different matter as no doubt DeSantis keeping his hopes on 4 years time so doesn't want to alienate Trump support/far right which could scupper his chances in future but just shows no prinicples.
DeSantis' platform is very similar to Trump's, so I can see why he'd endorse Trump over Haley, especially with Trump looking overwhelmingly likely to carry the nomination. DeSantis' whole pitch was him bringing Trumpism without the baggage of Trump himself. DeSantis failed to realise that you also need campaigning ability and big energy.
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Duty281 wrote:mountain man wrote:DeSantis endorsing Trump, hmmm. I'd find it hard to stomach endorsing a candidate who openly mocked me! I guess politics is a different matter as no doubt DeSantis keeping his hopes on 4 years time so doesn't want to alienate Trump support/far right which could scupper his chances in future but just shows no prinicples.
DeSantis' platform is very similar to Trump's, so I can see why he'd endorse Trump over Haley, especially with Trump looking overwhelmingly likely to carry the nomination. DeSantis' whole pitch was him bringing Trumpism without the baggage of Trump himself. DeSantis failed to realise that you also need campaigning ability and big energy.
Only one reason he is endorsing Trump.....and its the same reason he'd be endorsing Haley if she was ahead.
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
If you look at elections in the US over the last 100 years generally you will find the most charismatic politician wins....generally.
Only Nixon who basically was a shoo in after the Vietnam disaster and Coolidge who was VP and ascended when one of the thickest and most corrupt Presidents in history Warren Harding died while being read a bedtime story by his Wife (Harding was asked if he had many skeletons in his closet when being told he was probably going to be nominee in 1920...He replied with a request to have 24 hours so he could remember them all)
Maybe Bush v Dukakis....McKinley v Cleveland are questionable..Can't remember who Hoover beat !!
Biden.....Bush..Obama....Carter....Reagan.....LBJ...Truman....Trump.....Kennedy....Eisenhower.....Clnton...Roosevelt x 2......Cleveland... all were more charismatic than their opponents or equally so...
DeSantis didn't have much going for him........Stiff.
Not sure Trump like with Christie will have to reward him either........Might have to give Haley something.
Only Nixon who basically was a shoo in after the Vietnam disaster and Coolidge who was VP and ascended when one of the thickest and most corrupt Presidents in history Warren Harding died while being read a bedtime story by his Wife (Harding was asked if he had many skeletons in his closet when being told he was probably going to be nominee in 1920...He replied with a request to have 24 hours so he could remember them all)
Maybe Bush v Dukakis....McKinley v Cleveland are questionable..Can't remember who Hoover beat !!
Biden.....Bush..Obama....Carter....Reagan.....LBJ...Truman....Trump.....Kennedy....Eisenhower.....Clnton...Roosevelt x 2......Cleveland... all were more charismatic than their opponents or equally so...
DeSantis didn't have much going for him........Stiff.
Not sure Trump like with Christie will have to reward him either........Might have to give Haley something.
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40654
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
The New Hampshire primary is today. Haley's last chance, in all probability.
Unfortunately for her, after a brief bit of excitement with the polls, it appears Trump is on course for another resounding win. The latest polls are putting Trump up by 22%, 18%, 27%, 16%, 19%, 16%, and 11%. Even the American Research Group, once polling a tie, is now forecasting a Trump lead, albeit by just 2% (in a poll that has DeSantis on 6%).
Trump is currently 1/33 to win NH on Betfair. So it would be a monumental shock if Haley were to win.
If Trump does win tonight the race is surely all over (barring legal/health issues) and it'll only be a matter of time before Haley joins DeSantis and Ramaswamy in dropping out. The South Carolina (Haley's home state) primary is in a month's time, and she probably wants to avoid a humiliation in her own territory.
Unfortunately for her, after a brief bit of excitement with the polls, it appears Trump is on course for another resounding win. The latest polls are putting Trump up by 22%, 18%, 27%, 16%, 19%, 16%, and 11%. Even the American Research Group, once polling a tie, is now forecasting a Trump lead, albeit by just 2% (in a poll that has DeSantis on 6%).
Trump is currently 1/33 to win NH on Betfair. So it would be a monumental shock if Haley were to win.
If Trump does win tonight the race is surely all over (barring legal/health issues) and it'll only be a matter of time before Haley joins DeSantis and Ramaswamy in dropping out. The South Carolina (Haley's home state) primary is in a month's time, and she probably wants to avoid a humiliation in her own territory.
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Duty281 wrote:The New Hampshire primary is today. Haley's last chance, in all probability.
Unfortunately for her, after a brief bit of excitement with the polls, it appears Trump is on course for another resounding win. The latest polls are putting Trump up by 22%, 18%, 27%, 16%, 19%, 16%, and 11%. Even the American Research Group, once polling a tie, is now forecasting a Trump lead, albeit by just 2% (in a poll that has DeSantis on 6%).
Trump is currently 1/33 to win NH on Betfair. So it would be a monumental shock if Haley were to win.
If Trump does win tonight the race is surely all over (barring legal/health issues) and it'll only be a matter of time before Haley joins DeSantis and Ramaswamy in dropping out. The South Carolina (Haley's home state) primary is in a month's time, and she probably wants to avoid a humiliation in her own territory.
Like I said wait until the dust settles on Iowa..........People like to back winners....
South Carolina is a month away and the last poll had Trump 39% up in her home state which is quite disastrous.
Still weird things happen in NH.........Independents may turnout in record numbers...some Trump supporters who think it's over may not bother turning up...
Who knows..........After all Thomas Dewey took the Presidency of Truman in 1948 according to the Chicago Tribune first edition.
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Trump wins, but not as big a margin as most of the polling companies were indicating.
He appears to have won by 11.5%. If DeSantis and Ramaswamy had stayed in, Haley might have nicked it...
All over bar the shouting now, though Haley has signaled her intention to remain in the race. The next main event is SC in a month's time, where Trump had a 30% lead in the last poll conducted at the start of January.
He appears to have won by 11.5%. If DeSantis and Ramaswamy had stayed in, Haley might have nicked it...
All over bar the shouting now, though Haley has signaled her intention to remain in the race. The next main event is SC in a month's time, where Trump had a 30% lead in the last poll conducted at the start of January.
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
It's surely a done deal Trump will get nomination and we get to see play out a bitter, attack driven campaign between Trump and Biden.
Oh joy....
Oh joy....
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Which kind of suggests how stupid the system is. I'm sure TRUSS could let us know, but I wonder what the polls suggest in terms of a Trump vs. Biden likelihood of success cf. a Haley vs. Biden likelihood. If Haley looks a more likely winner, it would seem stupid in the extreme to have Trump as the Republican candidate, but they've shown themselves to be so wet and craven, it'd be no surprise if it's a Trump rubber stamping exercise.Duty281 wrote:Trump wins, but not as big a margin as most of the polling companies were indicating.
He appears to have won by 11.5%. If DeSantis and Ramaswamy had stayed in, Haley might have nicked it...
All over bar the shouting now, though Haley has signaled her intention to remain in the race. The next main event is SC in a month's time, where Trump had a 30% lead in the last poll conducted at the start of January.
It's interesting. Trump's an awful individual (he couldn't even speak w/ grace last night after his win and adopted the approach of the pathetic bully, again), but whatever anyone thinks of him, his popularity reflects an apparent genuine interest in his sickening approach from many Americans. What a beacon of light they are. Still, idols are often made of clay.
Last edited by navyblueshorts on Wed 24 Jan 2024, 12:26 pm; edited 1 time in total
navyblueshorts- Moderator
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
navyblueshorts wrote:Which kind of suggests how stupid the system is. I'm sure TRUSS could let us know, but I wonder what the polls suggest in terms of a Trump vs. Biden likelihood of success cf. a Haley vs. Biden likelihood. If Haley looks a more likely winner, it would seem stupid in the extreme to have Trump as the Republican candidate, but they've shown themselves to be so wet and craven, it'd be no surprise if it's a Trump rubber stamping exercise.Duty281 wrote:Trump wins, but not as big a margin as most of the polling companies were indicating.
He appears to have won by 11.5%. If DeSantis and Ramaswamy had stayed in, Haley might have nicked it...
All over bar the shouting now, though Haley has signaled her intention to remain in the race. The next main event is SC in a month's time, where Trump had a 30% lead in the last poll conducted at the start of January.
It's interesting. Trump's an awful individual (he couldn't even speak w/ grace last night after his wind and adopted the approach of the pathetic bully, again), but whatever anyone thinks of him, his popularity reflects an apparent genuine interest in his sickening approach from many Americans. What a beacon of light they are. Still, idols are often made of clay.
Polling appears to be better for Trump against Biden than Haley against Biden. The RealClearPolitics average has Trump leading Biden by 2.9%, while Haley's lead over Biden is 1.1%.
But there's less polling data around Haley, plus it's a bit too far out to be useful at this point.
I do think Trump has a better chance of beating Biden than Haley does. Trump, for better or for worse, fires up his base of voters and drives a good turnout. I'm not sure Haley can do the same.
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Morning Consult have spewed out some polls from the key states for Trump v Biden.
Trump leading by 3% in Arizona, 8% in Georgia, 5% in Michigan, 8% in Nevada, 10% in North Carolina, 3% in Pennsylvania, and 5% in Wisconsin.
These leads generally have a minor increase when Kennedy is on the ballot. If Kennedy had been on the ballot in 2020 and posted his current numbers, Trump would have won, which shows the potentially pivotal effect that Kennedy could have on the 2024 election if he stays in the race until November.
Winning those states would see Trump win by 312-226 on the EC, presuming he holds the likes of Ohio and Florida which are currently deemed to be fairly safe Republican.
It's a very solid position for Trump and shows how much work Biden has to do to retain the Presidency, with about 40 weeks to go. Trump is in a better position at this stage of the race than he was at the comparative point in both 2016 and 2020. This can be credited, at least in part, to Trump currently campaigning, while his opponent is not in campaign mode (unlike the previous two elections).
Trump leading by 3% in Arizona, 8% in Georgia, 5% in Michigan, 8% in Nevada, 10% in North Carolina, 3% in Pennsylvania, and 5% in Wisconsin.
These leads generally have a minor increase when Kennedy is on the ballot. If Kennedy had been on the ballot in 2020 and posted his current numbers, Trump would have won, which shows the potentially pivotal effect that Kennedy could have on the 2024 election if he stays in the race until November.
Winning those states would see Trump win by 312-226 on the EC, presuming he holds the likes of Ohio and Florida which are currently deemed to be fairly safe Republican.
It's a very solid position for Trump and shows how much work Biden has to do to retain the Presidency, with about 40 weeks to go. Trump is in a better position at this stage of the race than he was at the comparative point in both 2016 and 2020. This can be credited, at least in part, to Trump currently campaigning, while his opponent is not in campaign mode (unlike the previous two elections).
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Duty281 wrote:
It's a very solid position for Trump and shows how much work Biden has to do to retain the Presidency, with about 40 weeks to go. Trump is in a better position at this stage of the race than he was at the comparative point in both 2016 and 2020. This can be credited, at least in part, to Trump currently campaigning, while his opponent is not in campaign mode (unlike the previous two elections).
Bernie Sanders beat Joe Biden in the New Hampshire primary in 2020 around this time.....So Trump would have been in a bettter position in 2020..I imagine.....
Anyways it's off to Nevada in a few days.......They have a Primary and a Caucus two days later.......Last polls showed Trump with a big lead and even if Haley wins the Primary she isn't on the Caucus candidate sheet which disqualifies her from delegates....26 of them.
Trump will be probably 40 or so ahead this time next week and is likely to win SC.....
With Super Tuesday approaching and 5 out of 14 declaring being Southern States like delegate rich Texas...It's neighbor Oklahoma, red neck Alabama, Tennessee and Virginia in Trump's pocket before we examine the rest....It's a struggle to see Haley staying in even if she gets there..
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Duty281 wrote:navyblueshorts wrote:Which kind of suggests how stupid the system is. I'm sure TRUSS could let us know, but I wonder what the polls suggest in terms of a Trump vs. Biden likelihood of success cf. a Haley vs. Biden likelihood. If Haley looks a more likely winner, it would seem stupid in the extreme to have Trump as the Republican candidate, but they've shown themselves to be so wet and craven, it'd be no surprise if it's a Trump rubber stamping exercise.Duty281 wrote:Trump wins, but not as big a margin as most of the polling companies were indicating.
He appears to have won by 11.5%. If DeSantis and Ramaswamy had stayed in, Haley might have nicked it...
All over bar the shouting now, though Haley has signaled her intention to remain in the race. The next main event is SC in a month's time, where Trump had a 30% lead in the last poll conducted at the start of January.
It's interesting. Trump's an awful individual (he couldn't even speak w/ grace last night after his wind and adopted the approach of the pathetic bully, again), but whatever anyone thinks of him, his popularity reflects an apparent genuine interest in his sickening approach from many Americans. What a beacon of light they are. Still, idols are often made of clay.
Polling appears to be better for Trump against Biden than Haley against Biden. The RealClearPolitics average has Trump leading Biden by 2.9%, while Haley's lead over Biden is 1.1%.
But there's less polling data around Haley, plus it's a bit too far out to be useful at this point.
I do think Trump has a better chance of beating Biden than Haley does. Trump, for better or for worse, fires up his base of voters and drives a good turnout. I'm not sure Haley can do the same.
Working out who has a better chance for the Republicans isn't helped by polling like this:
CNN's polling says (nationally) Trump leads Biden by 4%, but Haley leads Biden by 13% (!). But Yahoo News' polling reckons Trump has a 1% lead, while Haley trails Biden by 5%.
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Duty281 wrote:Duty281 wrote:navyblueshorts wrote:Which kind of suggests how stupid the system is. I'm sure TRUSS could let us know, but I wonder what the polls suggest in terms of a Trump vs. Biden likelihood of success cf. a Haley vs. Biden likelihood. If Haley looks a more likely winner, it would seem stupid in the extreme to have Trump as the Republican candidate, but they've shown themselves to be so wet and craven, it'd be no surprise if it's a Trump rubber stamping exercise.Duty281 wrote:Trump wins, but not as big a margin as most of the polling companies were indicating.
He appears to have won by 11.5%. If DeSantis and Ramaswamy had stayed in, Haley might have nicked it...
All over bar the shouting now, though Haley has signaled her intention to remain in the race. The next main event is SC in a month's time, where Trump had a 30% lead in the last poll conducted at the start of January.
It's interesting. Trump's an awful individual (he couldn't even speak w/ grace last night after his wind and adopted the approach of the pathetic bully, again), but whatever anyone thinks of him, his popularity reflects an apparent genuine interest in his sickening approach from many Americans. What a beacon of light they are. Still, idols are often made of clay.
Polling appears to be better for Trump against Biden than Haley against Biden. The RealClearPolitics average has Trump leading Biden by 2.9%, while Haley's lead over Biden is 1.1%.
But there's less polling data around Haley, plus it's a bit too far out to be useful at this point.
I do think Trump has a better chance of beating Biden than Haley does. Trump, for better or for worse, fires up his base of voters and drives a good turnout. I'm not sure Haley can do the same.
Working out who has a better chance for the Republicans isn't helped by polling like this:
CNN's polling says (nationally) Trump leads Biden by 4%, but Haley leads Biden by 13% (!). But Yahoo News' polling reckons Trump has a 1% lead, while Haley trails Biden by 5%.
Bellwether polling is more constructive....
Wisconsin
Trump 42
Biden 39
Biden 37
Haley 28
Georgia
Trump 45
Biden 37
Biden 35
Haley 29
CNN is just 24 hours each day of Trump hate.....Best to ignore.
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Hahahaha. I know it'll go to the SC, but:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-68023315
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-68023315
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Nikki Haley loses to none of the "above" in Nevada.......In a poll that Montgomery Brewster would be proud of...
She is going to need his millions very soon..
She is going to need his millions very soon..
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
All elections should have a 'none of the above' more often I reckon. There should be a way to express dissatisfaction w/ candidates w/o spoiling a ballot.TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Nikki Haley loses to none of the "above" in Nevada.......In a poll that Montgomery Brewster would be proud of...
She is going to need his millions very soon..
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Trump wasn't on the ballot for that Nevada vote, except as the 'none of the above' option, which crushed Haley again.
She's only staying in in case Trump ends up dropping out/forced out due to his legal troubles.
But the longer the race goes on the more humiliating it gets for Haley with these heavy defeats.
She's only staying in in case Trump ends up dropping out/forced out due to his legal troubles.
But the longer the race goes on the more humiliating it gets for Haley with these heavy defeats.
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Biden's telling stories of talking to Mitterrand in 2021, and Trump is asking people if he looks like Elvis.
Sounds like parody, but it's the reality of the two choices for American President.
I think Biden's stories are more entertaining.
Sounds like parody, but it's the reality of the two choices for American President.
I think Biden's stories are more entertaining.
Duty281- Posts : 34052
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
NBC poll has Trump 20 points ahead of Biden on the economy....Which is alarming for the "It's the economy stupid" brigade and quite surprising given inflation is falling and the Job market growing...
But perception is 9/10 of the law..
Trump has big leads on immigration which is becoming a bigger issue all the time......and Biden's poll rating of 37% approval is in losing-by-landslide territory.
Early days in the cycle but Trump was 45% at the same point 4 years ago.
I see Haley is staying in and campaigning in California for super Tuesday..........The Southern States all looking a waste of time.....Delegate rich but milder GOP-types in California are her only hope......If you get more than 50% of the vote state wide you get the lot......all 169.......She will be 50 down by Super Tuesday.
That's the good news..
Trump 77%
Haley..19%......In the Golden state.
Is the bad..
But perception is 9/10 of the law..
Trump has big leads on immigration which is becoming a bigger issue all the time......and Biden's poll rating of 37% approval is in losing-by-landslide territory.
Early days in the cycle but Trump was 45% at the same point 4 years ago.
I see Haley is staying in and campaigning in California for super Tuesday..........The Southern States all looking a waste of time.....Delegate rich but milder GOP-types in California are her only hope......If you get more than 50% of the vote state wide you get the lot......all 169.......She will be 50 down by Super Tuesday.
That's the good news..
Trump 77%
Haley..19%......In the Golden state.
Is the bad..
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40654
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Guess the Dems will have to work very hard on the economy message.
Might be me, but often seems to be the case that right wing parties stuff an economy up, leaving it to be picked up by the 'socialists', which if it then happens, the credit is stolen by the next right-of-centre administration. If right wing administrations do any good economically, they always overdo it (i.e. don't ensure increased wealth is distributed and/or taxed/invested etc), causing a car crash to which a centralist/left-of-centre administration has to administer CPR.
Not just an issue in the U.S.
Might be me, but often seems to be the case that right wing parties stuff an economy up, leaving it to be picked up by the 'socialists', which if it then happens, the credit is stolen by the next right-of-centre administration. If right wing administrations do any good economically, they always overdo it (i.e. don't ensure increased wealth is distributed and/or taxed/invested etc), causing a car crash to which a centralist/left-of-centre administration has to administer CPR.
Not just an issue in the U.S.
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
super Tuesday polls......South..
Oklahoma
Trump 88
Haley..11.............43 proportionally shared delegates.
Alabama
Trump 87
Haley..12.............50 proportional...
Texas
Trump 84
Haley 15..............161 winner takes all if reach 50% statewide..
Tennessee
Trump 81
Haley 18..............31 proportional
Virginia
Trump 78
Haley 19..............48 proportional....
Haley is doing better up North.........But you can see her problem.....
I can't see a road...... can't see Trump being kicked off either..
Oklahoma
Trump 88
Haley..11.............43 proportionally shared delegates.
Alabama
Trump 87
Haley..12.............50 proportional...
Texas
Trump 84
Haley 15..............161 winner takes all if reach 50% statewide..
Tennessee
Trump 81
Haley 18..............31 proportional
Virginia
Trump 78
Haley 19..............48 proportional....
Haley is doing better up North.........But you can see her problem.....
I can't see a road...... can't see Trump being kicked off either..
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Report into Biden released.
Finds Biden willfully retained and disclosed classified materials, but he is not guilty beyond reasonable doubt.
The report also shows that Biden couldn't remember when he was Vice President, couldn't remember within several years of when his son died, and forgot the nature of classified documents when reading them aloud to his ghostwriter.
Biden's not fit to be President.
If the Democrats could find some 40/50 something, halfway competent, with some positive ideas, then they'd walk the election. Instead they're plugging on with the most unpopular President ever seen. Madness.
Finds Biden willfully retained and disclosed classified materials, but he is not guilty beyond reasonable doubt.
The report also shows that Biden couldn't remember when he was Vice President, couldn't remember within several years of when his son died, and forgot the nature of classified documents when reading them aloud to his ghostwriter.
Biden's not fit to be President.
If the Democrats could find some 40/50 something, halfway competent, with some positive ideas, then they'd walk the election. Instead they're plugging on with the most unpopular President ever seen. Madness.
Duty281- Posts : 34052
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
2020 US Presidential Election: Joe Biden: 81,283,501 votesDuty281 wrote:... Biden .... the most unpopular President ever seen ....
Surpassing Barack Obama's record of 69.5 million votes from 2008. Biden received more than 81 million votes, the most votes ever cast for a candidate in a U.S. presidential election.
Joe Biden was the most popular candidate for President ever and by a significant margin given the number of people that voted for him.
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Duty281 wrote:Report into Biden released.
Finds Biden willfully retained and disclosed classified materials, but he is not guilty beyond reasonable doubt.
The report also shows that Biden couldn't remember when he was Vice President, couldn't remember within several years of when his son died, and forgot the nature of classified documents when reading them aloud to his ghostwriter.
Biden's not fit to be President.
If the Democrats could find some 40/50 something, halfway competent, with some positive ideas, then they'd walk the election. Instead they're plugging on with the most unpopular President ever seen. Madness.
Yep that's what I think, he is also increasingly physically frail. He looks like to has to concentrate hard just to walk properly but the mental decline by far biggest issue.
mountain man- Posts : 3140
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
No name Bertie wrote:2020 US Presidential Election: Joe Biden: 81,283,501 votesDuty281 wrote:... Biden .... the most unpopular President ever seen ....
Surpassing Barack Obama's record of 69.5 million votes from 2008. Biden received more than 81 million votes, the most votes ever cast for a candidate in a U.S. presidential election.
Joe Biden was the most popular candidate for President ever and by a significant margin given the number of people that voted for him.
I was actually referring to Biden's very low approval rating, which is currently about 8% lower (Fivethirtyeight) than Trump's at the same stage of his Presidency.
Most of Biden's votes in 2020 were from people who were primarily concerned with getting Trump out, not out of any particular love for Biden.
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
mountain man wrote:Duty281 wrote:Report into Biden released.
Finds Biden willfully retained and disclosed classified materials, but he is not guilty beyond reasonable doubt.
The report also shows that Biden couldn't remember when he was Vice President, couldn't remember within several years of when his son died, and forgot the nature of classified documents when reading them aloud to his ghostwriter.
Biden's not fit to be President.
If the Democrats could find some 40/50 something, halfway competent, with some positive ideas, then they'd walk the election. Instead they're plugging on with the most unpopular President ever seen. Madness.
Yep that's what I think, he is also increasingly physically frail. He looks like to has to concentrate hard just to walk properly but the mental decline by far biggest issue.
Indeed. Couldn't make it up either, but when Biden did a briefing yesterday to defend himself against criticisms of his memory, he managed to call the President of Egypt, Sisi, the President of Mexico.
Can't imagine what Biden will be like in four years, if he wins again in November.
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Aside from the fact that there's an increasing amount of blatant age discrimination entering the general conversation around Biden, whether the substance of that report re. classified document retention is true, or not, the idea that Hur thinks it's even remotely appropriate to talk about Biden's memory in the way he apparently has is a joke. It's so far outside his remit, it's ridiculous.
While not wanting to ignore all of what's apparently included, I think it's reasonable to ask why a Trump appointed DoJ Special Counsel just coincidentally includes incendiary comment re. Biden's apparent memory lapses in his report, knowing full well that Biden's age/memory are a known target for the Republicans. Hmm....
While not wanting to ignore all of what's apparently included, I think it's reasonable to ask why a Trump appointed DoJ Special Counsel just coincidentally includes incendiary comment re. Biden's apparent memory lapses in his report, knowing full well that Biden's age/memory are a known target for the Republicans. Hmm....
navyblueshorts- Moderator
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
navyblueshorts wrote:Aside from the fact that there's an increasing amount of blatant age discrimination entering the general conversation around Biden, whether the substance of that report re. classified document retention is true, or not, the idea that Hur thinks it's even remotely appropriate to talk about Biden's memory in the way he apparently has is a joke. It's so far outside his remit, it's ridiculous.
While not wanting to ignore all of what's apparently included, I think it's reasonable to ask why a Trump appointed DoJ Special Counsel just coincidentally includes incendiary comment re. Biden's apparent memory lapses in his report, knowing full well that Biden's age/memory are a known target for the Republicans. Hmm....
Age discrimination?! Yes, a man in his 80s with severe memory lapses, who invents stories of conversations with people who have long been dead, shouldn't be President of the USA. If that's age discrimination, sign me up.
Biden's memory was brought up as a reason for not finding him guilty e.g. "In a case where the government must prove that Mr. Biden knew he had possession of the classified Afghanistan documents after the vice presidency and chose to keep those documents, knowing he was violating the law, we expect that at trial, his attorneys would emphasize these limitations in his recall."
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
On the other hand we have a man in his late 70s who, in a grand delusion, actually believes the last election was rigged, and who mistook Nikki Haley for Nancy Pelosi.
I find it astonishing and sad that anyone thinks either one is fit to be President.
I find it astonishing and sad that anyone thinks either one is fit to be President.
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
JuliusHMarx wrote:On the other hand we have a man in his late 70s who, in a grand delusion, actually believes the last election was rigged, and who mistook Nikki Haley for Nancy Pelosi.
I find it astonishing and sad that anyone thinks either one is fit to be President.
Agreed. It's a terrible situation for the American people.
Trump is as bad as Biden these days.
Duty281- Posts : 34052
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Duty281 wrote:JuliusHMarx wrote:On the other hand we have a man in his late 70s who, in a grand delusion, actually believes the last election was rigged, and who mistook Nikki Haley for Nancy Pelosi.
I find it astonishing and sad that anyone thinks either one is fit to be President.
Agreed. It's a terrible situation for the American people.
Trump is as bad as Biden these days.
No he isn't........Biden can't remember being vice president or when his Son died.....
As for fitness to be President.......Considering there has been....Harding....Nixon....Fillmore....Clinton........Bush jr.......Tyler....Buchanan....in the role of President..
No one should be disqualified..
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40654
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
They nearly ran out of ballots for the Nevada Caucus.........Even though it was a formality people were queuing and queuing to get in and join the play..
Trump won the Virgin Islands caucus too last night 74% - 26%
26 + 4 more delegates in the pot..... Trump 62 v 17 Haley...............
Trump won the Virgin Islands caucus too last night 74% - 26%
26 + 4 more delegates in the pot..... Trump 62 v 17 Haley...............
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40654
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Duty281 wrote:JuliusHMarx wrote:On the other hand we have a man in his late 70s who, in a grand delusion, actually believes the last election was rigged, and who mistook Nikki Haley for Nancy Pelosi.
I find it astonishing and sad that anyone thinks either one is fit to be President.
Agreed. It's a terrible situation for the American people.
Trump is as bad as Biden these days.
No he isn't........Biden can't remember being vice president or when his Son died.....
As for fitness to be President.......Considering there has been....Harding....Nixon....Fillmore....Clinton........Bush jr.......Tyler....Buchanan....in the role of President..
No one should be disqualified..
Unless you are under 35.
JuliusHMarx- julius
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
navyblueshorts wrote:Aside from the fact that there's an increasing amount of blatant age discrimination entering the general conversation around Biden, whether the substance of that report re. classified document retention is true, or not, the idea that Hur thinks it's even remotely appropriate to talk about Biden's memory in the way he apparently has is a joke. It's so far outside his remit, it's ridiculous.
While not wanting to ignore all of what's apparently included, I think it's reasonable to ask why a Trump appointed DoJ Special Counsel just coincidentally includes incendiary comment re. Biden's apparent memory lapses in his report, knowing full well that Biden's age/memory are a known target for the Republicans. Hmm....
Nothing to do with age discrimination! It's fact there have been so many recorded incidents where he gets confused, doesn't know what's going on etc etc. If he was 60 I'd say the same.
mountain man- Posts : 3140
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
JuliusHMarx wrote:TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Duty281 wrote:JuliusHMarx wrote:On the other hand we have a man in his late 70s who, in a grand delusion, actually believes the last election was rigged, and who mistook Nikki Haley for Nancy Pelosi.
I find it astonishing and sad that anyone thinks either one is fit to be President.
Agreed. It's a terrible situation for the American people.
Trump is as bad as Biden these days.
No he isn't........Biden can't remember being vice president or when his Son died.....
As for fitness to be President.......Considering there has been....Harding....Nixon....Fillmore....Clinton........Bush jr.......Tyler....Buchanan....in the role of President..
No one should be disqualified..
Unless you are under 35.
Blatant age discrimination.
Duty281- Posts : 34052
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
Talk again of Biden retiring and Michelle Obama the darling of the liberal media becoming the candidate......
No doubt she wins and she would be welcome as a new poll has Biden's rating at minus 33..Considering Nixon was at minus 40 when he was resigning over watergate it is quite sobering.
But try telling Kamala Harris to step out of the way..
No doubt she wins and she would be welcome as a new poll has Biden's rating at minus 33..Considering Nixon was at minus 40 when he was resigning over watergate it is quite sobering.
But try telling Kamala Harris to step out of the way..
TRUSSMAN66- Posts : 40654
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Re: 2024 US Presidential Election
I didn't think you'd get the age discrimination comment. No matter though.Duty281 wrote:navyblueshorts wrote:Aside from the fact that there's an increasing amount of blatant age discrimination entering the general conversation around Biden, whether the substance of that report re. classified document retention is true, or not, the idea that Hur thinks it's even remotely appropriate to talk about Biden's memory in the way he apparently has is a joke. It's so far outside his remit, it's ridiculous.
While not wanting to ignore all of what's apparently included, I think it's reasonable to ask why a Trump appointed DoJ Special Counsel just coincidentally includes incendiary comment re. Biden's apparent memory lapses in his report, knowing full well that Biden's age/memory are a known target for the Republicans. Hmm....
Age discrimination?! Yes, a man in his 80s with severe memory lapses, who invents stories of conversations with people who have long been dead, shouldn't be President of the USA. If that's age discrimination, sign me up.
Biden's memory was brought up as a reason for not finding him guilty e.g. "In a case where the government must prove that Mr. Biden knew he had possession of the classified Afghanistan documents after the vice presidency and chose to keep those documents, knowing he was violating the law, we expect that at trial, his attorneys would emphasize these limitations in his recall."
Given the nature of the Special Counsel (whom I accept could actually be scrupulously professional no matter how he was appointed), I'll defer judgement on whether Biden behaved as he did until I hear verbatim recordings and/or confirmation from a reliable witness, if it's OK with you.
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