2024 US Presidential Election

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Thought we should have a thread on it, as Ron DeSantis is expected to launch his campaign on Twitter this evening. He's trailing Trump by a big margin for the Republican nomination, around 37% behind in the polling average. But there's a lot of time for things to change and the oddsmakers only have DeSantis as a 2/1 outsider, against Trump's 2/5. Doesn't appear to be any other serious contenders for the Republican nomination at this point.

Biden is expected to run again and defend his crown, but his advancing age (he's into his 80s now) and low approval ratings means he may be vulnerable to a Democratic challenger. The most likely challenger seems to be Robert Kennedy Jr. who has already announced his candidacy and has polled as high as 21%, but that was still 49% behind Biden. As such, Biden's a 2/9 clear favourite to be the Democrat nominee in 2024, but if he drops out for whatever reason then the race is wide open.

Only 531 days until the election...

JuliusHMarx wrote:Not that I think Biden should run

mountain man wrote:I cannot believe you are still defending Biden.

?

JuliusHMarx wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Not that I think Biden should run

mountain man wrote:I cannot believe you are still defending Biden.

?

Not you, I was referring to navyblueshorts. I can't be bothered to quote every response as page gets horrendously messy!

mountain man wrote:Trump does and has made similarly bad gaffes but he at least looks robust whereas Biden is plainly frail so looks even worse when he does say wrong thing.
81 is old but there are 81 year olds who are fine, show no signs of mental or physical decline. The same cannot be said of Biden.

Come on, I cannot believe you are still defending Biden. The evidence is out there for all to see.

I'm not defending him re. public speaking gaffes. I am saying that there's no evidence equating those gaffes w/ the more serious policy decisions etc etc. I submit that the latter is more important.

What I'm seeing is a 'where there's smoke, there's fire' assumption about Biden's competence. In other words, there's no actual evidence of issues re. anything other than some memory lapses etc in his public speaking.

Fair enough, none of us know what goes in policy meetings etc but given everything we can see and hear just from his media appearances and also so many calls from those who do know what he's like behind closed doors the evidence is pretty overwhelming.

Trouble for Biden is that it almost no longer matters how sound he is in policy meetings , etc. He may well be fine except for these "moments" in public speaking (though I am less confident of that recently ; and more so about where he might be in three or four years) ; but if the public perception of him as seriously past it continues to grow - and many in his own party either offer lukewarm support or outright call for him to step down - his chances of running a successful campaign even against a barely credible opponent like Trump are pretty slim. At the point where all the conversation is about Biden's competence so it hardly matters whether his colleagues defend his lapses or suggest he ought to consider his position , as it all just serves to undermine him.

Amazes me that millions can support Trump but obviously they do ; so the Dems need a reason for their own less dedicated members and the mass of "neutral" voters to actually turn out and vote against him. Settling on a "better" candidate than Biden may be complicated ; but even the White House Cat , if nominated , would probably benefit from the new player boost ; so surely getting Joe to accept his duty is to vacate the stage , job done honourably , and put up a candidate who won't have the "old man in cognitive decline" slur hanging over him throughout the campaign.

alfie wrote:Trouble for Biden is that it almost no longer matters how sound he is in policy meetings , etc. ... but if the public perception of him as seriously past it continues to grow ...

Public perception or media narrative?  Strange how the media narrative changes so suddenly with the sense that there are now warring factions with a growing faction out to force Biden to resign.  

If one listens to the entire debate Biden wasn't too bad - he made one or two gaffes, he mumbled a few words, he wandered a little from time to time - but he wasn't much different to what he has been doing before.  Accept this time the reporting is different. Now the BBC, for example, are headlining every single gaffe he makes and ignoring much else except the overriding message of the importance of stopping Trump to preserve Democracy etc.  One of the two clips of the debate has Trump looking over to Biden and saying "I don't know what you said at the end and I don't think you do" but one can clearly hear what Biden says if one pays attention - "asylum officers" referring to border control.  

Remember Biden won the Primaries easily - a huge several months long voting process earlier this year.   If that is not relevant and democratic I don't know what is. Now suddenly the view is that he must go. If that is not over-riding democracy I don't know what is.

Oh may well be fair to say the media narrative is a big factor. But it isn't going to change , is it ? And you'd imagine the effect on those less deeply interested in politics will be bad for Biden. To be clear , I think Biden is being roughly treated by that media ; but that doesn't change the fact that all this is making his prospects worse by the day.

'Biden won the primaries easily' - he won virtually uncontested primaries where no serious nominee stepped forward to challenge him.

There will be many disappointed that the person described as a threat to democracy survived an assassination attempt just now, with the bullet grazing the side of his head and penetrating part of his ear.   Some of his supporters, who have also been described as a threat to democracy, have been shot with at least one killed.  They had been positioned behind Trump. A marksman was allowed several shots at Trump before he was killed.   He had positioned himself on a roof of a building overlooking the rally.

Well he’s definitely winning now.

That was quite a shocking thing to hear this morning.
Regardless of your political leaning that is terrible.

However, as Samo says, I think this will only bolster his support unfortunately.

Well, I'm amazed this hasn't happened before. It's a credit to the Secret Service. Hundreds and hundreds of rallies over the last three campaigns in a such a gun friendly country.

Then I'm amazed the shooter only took his ear. He had scope/sights, he was properly lining it up.

This is going to be one of the most iconic photos of the century:



Trump was already leading pretty comfortably in the polls. This will now boost him considerably.

I'm sure the Democrats and mainstream media will now consider their language in future and rebuke themselves?

Thank f**k Trump wasn't killed though. We'd be looking at rioting and civil war in the USA otherwise.

Not sure it will actually give him any lasting boost. His fans didn't need this to worship the ground he walks on , although some of the less enthusiastic may become keener. But those who can't stand him won't switch as a sympathy vote and whether it would encourage those who were not committed either way to support him is open to question. Time will tell.

Extraordinarily lax security. Trump would be dead if the guy had a better aim. The rooftop was an obvious weak link that should have been covered.
Don't think it will affect the out come of the election as Trump was on course to win anyway.
I notice some Republicans are already using this for political advantage, and some have even disgracefully claimed that the Democrats incited the assassination attempt.
Overall yet another example that American is broken.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHwcjwyfae8

Seems extraordinarily lax security if what this guy is saying is true.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Extraordinarily lax security. Trump would be dead if the guy had a better aim. The rooftop was an obvious weak link that should have been covered.
Don't think it will affect the out come of the election as Trump was on course to win anyway.
I notice some Republicans are already using this for political advantage, and some have even disgracefully claimed that the Democrats incited the assassination attempt.
Overall yet another example that American is broken.

Seems Trump tilted his head just as the shot was fired. If that tilt doesn't happen, I think the shot goes through the forehead and he would be brown bread now.

200 years after the great President Andrew Jackson survived an attempted assassination we go again...

Jackson walked in to a guy with two loaded pistols which both backfired and then Jackson beat the crap out of him until help came....

Glad Trump is alright......Be all sorts of trouble all over America if a loony like "Oswald" took him out !!

For all those worried that this failed assassination attempt will give Donald Trump a boost in the polls, you shouldn't be too disheartened as I am sure the next attempt will be successful.  Meanwhile thoughts to the families of those that were killed, but given they were MAGA supporters and therefore a threat to democracy, maybe those thoughts might not be overly sympathetic.  

On my part I would have thought there would have been many attempts on Trumps life given all the rhetoric openly broadcast on the mainstream media and by the Democrat Party itself.   The fact there hasn't been suggests security (Homeland security etc) are actually working well for both Presidential candidates.

Now lets return to analysing the latest polls and see what the Democrats will do with their incumbent President and winner of their Primary Elections earlier this year and their sudden focus on the occasional gaffe and mumblings and wanderings he has been doing for years.

No name Bertie wrote:For all those worried that this failed assassination attempt will give Donald Trump a boost in the polls, you shouldn't be too disheartened as I am sure the next attempt will be successful.  Meanwhile thoughts to the families of those that were killed, but given they were MAGA supporters and therefore a threat to democracy, maybe those thoughts might not be overly sympathetic.  .

You're better than this post..

America America
God shed his grace on thee
He crowned the good..In brotherhood
From sea to shining sea.....

Apparently Farage is going to visit Trump in the USA and lend him an ear.
(Too soon?)

"Nearly 24 hours after what FBI officials called an assassination attempt at a Donald Trump campaign rally in Pennsylvania, law enforcement officials said they had not yet identified a motive for the attack."

Tough one, tough one.

Duty281 wrote:"Nearly 24 hours after what FBI officials called an assassination attempt at a Donald Trump campaign rally in Pennsylvania, law enforcement officials said they had not yet identified a motive for the attack."

Tough one, tough one.

What solid evidence do you have Duty? Was he mentally ill? Was he after fame? Was he a radical left winger? Was he part of a larger plot ordered by Biden?

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:For all those worried that this failed assassination attempt will give Donald Trump a boost in the polls, you shouldn't be too disheartened as I am sure the next attempt will be successful.  Meanwhile thoughts to the families of those that were killed, but given they were MAGA supporters and therefore a threat to democracy, maybe those thoughts might not be overly sympathetic.  .

You're better than this post..

America America
God shed his grace on thee
He crowned the good..In brotherhood
From sea to shining sea.....  

Agree with the first bit. However, you, with your history bent, should read more about the US interventions in the Philippines, Indonesia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Laos, Cambodia etc etc. How many dead? How many dictators, mass murderers propped up?

Less of the rose-tinted specs if you please .

JuliusHMarx wrote:Apparently Farage is going to visit Trump in the USA and lend him an ear.
(Too soon?)

Winged him in his right ear; missed his brain by miles.

Joking aside, pretty sad that this happened. Also pretty sad, but unsurprising, that Don Jr., Vance etc were on the airwaves within 24 hours blaming anyone but themselves and their part in creating the environment where this happened.

Will be interesting to hear what Trump now says at the Republican Convention etc. He has a chance from here to look the statesman and re-think his approach - will he?

Saw this on the BBC site. Hard to disagree.
“I wasn’t surprised that something like this happened given the state of American politics,” - Matthew Schmidt, associate professor of national security and political science at the University of New Haven in Connecticut.
Schmidt adds he was shocked by the assassination attempt but that the current political climate was conducive to violence:
We have been living for some time, at least a couple of decades now, in a political environment where both sides are declaring the other side as out of bounds, as being beyond compromising with, beyond working with.”
Extreme politics used to be the norm in the US, then stopped during the Cold War and is now reverting back, Schmidt says.

Will be interesting to hear what Trump now says at the Republican Convention etc. He has a chance from here to look the statesman and re-think his approach - will he?

No chance unfortunately. He'll use it to double down on narrative that he's the strong man for the job and no doubt make some veiled(or not) comments about how it's all a conspiracy against him and this is what you get with a weak President blah blah. He'll use it to attack Biden one way or other.
His rapid supporters will lap it up.

Trump says he is supposed to be dead. That's true. And he is, in another universe. That universe is currently in flames. But we're in the ear graze universe. Interesting times.

The incompetence of the Secret Service was truly mind boggling. I've seen camera footage from people who were there pointing out the guy on the roof while Trump was speaking, and some Sheriff ignored them. How do the Secret Service miss this guy, but your average MAGA person finds him? I struggle to believe anyone can be that incompetent.

Interesting times indeed...

https://x.com/DC_Draino/status/1812642041391915384

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:"Nearly 24 hours after what FBI officials called an assassination attempt at a Donald Trump campaign rally in Pennsylvania, law enforcement officials said they had not yet identified a motive for the attack."

Tough one, tough one.

What solid evidence do you have Duty? Was he mentally ill? Was he after fame? Was he a radical left winger? Was he part of a larger plot ordered by Biden?

We've all got no idea. We'll have to get our finest on the case. Gene Hunt, Sherlock Holmes, Morse and Jack Meadows off The Bill. They'll get us the answers.

navyblueshorts wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:For all those worried that this failed assassination attempt will give Donald Trump a boost in the polls, you shouldn't be too disheartened as I am sure the next attempt will be successful.  Meanwhile thoughts to the families of those that were killed, but given they were MAGA supporters and therefore a threat to democracy, maybe those thoughts might not be overly sympathetic.  .

You're better than this post..

America America
God shed his grace on thee
He crowned the good..In brotherhood
From sea to shining sea.....  

Agree with the first bit. However, you, with your history bent, should read more about the US interventions in the Philippines, Indonesia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Laos, Cambodia etc etc. How many dead? How many dictators, mass murderers propped up?

Less of the rose-tinted specs if you please .

British Empire was such a beacon of restraint........All these Countries that kicked you out did it because you were so nice...

JuliusHMarx wrote:Saw this on the BBC site. Hard to disagree.
“I wasn’t surprised that something like this happened given the state of American politics,” - Matthew Schmidt, associate professor of national security and political science at the University of New Haven in Connecticut.
Schmidt adds he was shocked by the assassination attempt but that the current political climate was conducive to violence:
We have been living for some time, at least a couple of decades now, in a political environment where both sides are declaring the other side as out of bounds, as being beyond compromising with, beyond working with.”
Extreme politics used to be the norm in the US, then stopped during the Cold War and is now reverting back, Schmidt says.

However it never stopped during the Cold War. It has always been there. Extremism has only got worse and more intense.
There have been several political assassinations and many attempted ones too during that long period. So there's no "reverting back" (sic) anywhere, Mr Schmidt.

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:"Nearly 24 hours after what FBI officials called an assassination attempt at a Donald Trump campaign rally in Pennsylvania, law enforcement officials said they had not yet identified a motive for the attack."

Tough one, tough one.

What solid evidence do you have Duty? Was he mentally ill? Was he after fame? Was he a radical left winger? Was he part of a larger plot ordered by Biden?

We've all got no idea. We'll have to get our finest on the case. Gene Hunt, Sherlock Holmes, Morse and Jack Meadows off The Bill. They'll get us the answers.

Go on then, tell us your considered opinion.

Not a great one for conspiracy theories....Always been a Occam's razor type...

But Trump was left dreadfully exposed and nearby roofs would be high risk areas....

Incompetence or worse for sure and Trump isn't your normal candidate.......After all he has been diagnosed as an enemy of the State by Politicians and media alike.

The attempt in itself isn't a shock as much as it has taken so long for there to be one..

I would imagine trying to overturn a fair democratic election by whatever means he could didn't help with his enemy of the state status.

Just watched news and it seems the gunman was spotted by public before shooting and told police about him.
I guess police dept there are Democrats.

JuliusHMarx wrote:I would imagine trying to overturn a fair democratic election by whatever means he could didn't help with his enemy of the state status.

You don't think that is exclusive to Trump......GORE v Bush........TILDEN v Hayes.......even back to the 1820s with 5th Pres vs 6th in Quincy Adams vs Andrew Jackson....

The 12th amendment was brought in after the stinky Jefferson - Burr debacle..

Trump never asked anybody to raid the Capitol he just didn't tell anybody not to...

I have no doubt that if someone had clipped Biden's ear at a public event the Republicans would be out in force claiming it was an inside job to attract sympathy ! Don't think we need to look too deeply into this one though , given the current political climate in the gun-loving country and the easy availability of high powered weapons to any sad nutter anxious for 15 minutes of (posthumous) fame...

Trump was lucky. Or a sign from God that he has to be elected

alfie wrote:I have no doubt that if someone had clipped Biden's ear at a public event the Republicans would be out in force claiming it was an inside job to attract sympathy ! Don't think we need to look too deeply into this one though , given the current political climate in the gun-loving country and the easy availability of high powered weapons to any sad nutter anxious for 15 minutes of (posthumous) fame...

Trump was lucky. Or a sign from God that he has to be elected

Thought the kid might have been a losing contestant on the Apprentice.....After the first shot he shouted "You're fired"...

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

No name Bertie wrote:For all those worried that this failed assassination attempt will give Donald Trump a boost in the polls, you shouldn't be too disheartened as I am sure the next attempt will be successful.  Meanwhile thoughts to the families of those that were killed, but given they were MAGA supporters and therefore a threat to democracy, maybe those thoughts might not be overly sympathetic.  .

You're better than this post..

America America
God shed his grace on thee
He crowned the good..In brotherhood
From sea to shining sea.....  

Agree with the first bit. However, you, with your history bent, should read more about the US interventions in the Philippines, Indonesia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Laos, Cambodia etc etc. How many dead? How many dictators, mass murderers propped up?

Less of the rose-tinted specs if you please .

British Empire was such a beacon of restraint........All these Countries that kicked you out did it because you were so nice...

Ahh. The good old whataboutery from your good self. Sorry; doesn't cut it. I don't give a 4X here about what the British Empire did in its past; your mention if it is irrelevant. I was, as you well know but have no answer to, challenging your usual nonsense about the good ol' US of A and how its such a beacon of probity, democracy, equality on behalf of the world etc etc. Probably best to give it a rest as we're all wise to that baloney now, I'm afraid . Of course, I didn't even think to mention good old Vietnam and how your beacon of democracy condones and supports the genocidal conduct of Israel.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

alfie wrote:I have no doubt that if someone had clipped Biden's ear at a public event the Republicans would be out in force claiming it was an inside job to attract sympathy ! Don't think we need to look too deeply into this one though , given the current political climate in the gun-loving country and the easy availability of high powered weapons to any sad nutter anxious for 15 minutes of (posthumous) fame...

Trump was lucky. Or a sign from God that he has to be elected

Thought the kid might have been a losing contestant on the Apprentice.....After the first shot he shouted "You're fired"...

Thought it quite ironic that quite a few at the rally were holding placards behind Trump stating exactly that...

“I had all prepared an extremely tough speech, really good, all about the corrupt, horrible administration,” he said, then suddenly added: “But I threw it away.”

He said a new speech was in the works because “I want to try to unite our country.” Folding his arms, he added, “But I don’t know if that’s possible. People are very divided.”

Was it a matter of tone, I asked, or were there policy changes he had in mind?

The policy differences, he suggested, are the stumbling block. “Some people want open borders, some don’t. Some want men to be able to play on women’s sport teams, and others don’t.”

Still, he said, he remains convinced that success will unite the country, though he didn’t otherwise define what that success would entail.

He said he appreciated the call from President Biden, calling it “fine” and that Biden was “very nice.”

He suggested, without offering specifics, that the campaign between them could be more civil from now on.

The shooting means Trump is a changed man. Going to be all sweetness from here on out. He'll give Biden a hug at the next debate. "Come here, Joe, that's it, you're such an amazing guy."

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:I would imagine trying to overturn a fair democratic election by whatever means he could didn't help with his enemy of the state status.

You don't think that is exclusive to Trump......GORE v Bush........TILDEN v Hayes.......even back to the 1820s with 5th Pres vs 6th in Quincy Adams vs Andrew Jackson....

The 12th amendment was brought in after the stinky Jefferson - Burr debacle..

Trump never asked anybody to raid the Capitol he just didn't tell anybody not to...

Did Al Gore spend the next 4 years telling everyone the election was rigged and that Bush was not a legitimate president? If he had, would that have been considered a threat to democracy?

Nice to see MTG has toned down the rhetoric -
“We are in a battle between GOOD and EVIL.”
“The Democrats are the party of pedophiles, murdering the innocent unborn, violence, and bloody, meaningless, endless wars.
“They want to lock up their political opponents, and terrorize innocent Americans who would tell the truth about it.
“The Democrat party is flat out evil, and yesterday they tried to murder President Trump.”

JuliusHMarx wrote:Nice to see MTG has toned down the rhetoric -
“We are in a battle between GOOD and EVIL.”
“The Democrats are the party of pedophiles, murdering the innocent unborn, violence, and bloody, meaningless, endless wars.
“They want to lock up their political opponents, and terrorize innocent Americans who would tell the truth about it.
“The Democrat party is flat out evil, and yesterday they tried to murder President Trump.”

She seems great.

Trump has picked Vance for VP. Vance - who once openly wondered if Trump was "America's Hitler". And yet the right blame the left, and only the left, for demonizing Trump.

Vance seems a Machiavellian operator. Piled in on Trump when Trump was floundering in the 2016 campaign, but when Trump was ascendant he forgot all of that and had a dramatic u-turn. Now in an excellent position if Trump wins and Trump's health falters during his second term.

Some good polls for Trump today. NY Times/Siena putting Trump up by 2% in Pennsylvania and Trump only trails in Virginia by 2%. The latter is definitely a battleground state now. The Times/Say putting Trump ahead in all seven swing states they polled, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

All polls were pre the shooting. The shooting has certainly taken the heat out of the calls for Biden to step aside.

Duty281 wrote:Vance seems a Machiavellian operator. Piled in on Trump when Trump was floundering in the 2016 campaign, but when Trump was ascendant he forgot all of that and had a dramatic u-turn. Now in an excellent position if Trump wins and Trump's health falters during his second term.

Some good polls for Trump today. NY Times/Siena putting Trump up by 2% in Pennsylvania and Trump only trails in Virginia by 2%. The latter is definitely a battleground state now. The Times/Say putting Trump ahead in all seven swing states they polled, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

All polls were pre the shooting. The shooting has certainly taken the heat out of the calls for Biden to step aside.

Ah - the Republicans didn't want Biden to step aside as they were confident of beating him. So who benefits most from the failed attempt? Conspiracy?
Some are even suggesting that picking Vance is a way to prevent any further assassination attempts should he win. No-one would want Vance to take over!

Biden accepts that it was probably a mistake to make a statement that could be seen as promoting the idea that Donald Trump should be assassinated but stands by his comment that Donald Trump is a threat to democracy:

"Joe Biden has defended his rhetoric against Donald Trump and cited why it was important, in his first interview since the attempt on his political rival's life.

The president said his campaign had a duty to clearly communicate the threat of a second Trump term, adding that his words were not the ones that needed to be tempered.

However, he told NBC's Lester Holt it had been a "mistake" to have said it was “time to put Trump in a bullseye" during a private donor call days before the assassination attempt on Trump at a Saturday rally in Pennsylvania."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd1rzde0n4do

If anyone hasn't read Vance's memoirs, 'Hillbilly Elegy', then don't!  

It's crap.  Full of cliches about 'hill people wisdom' and jam packed with exaggerations and stories that almost certainly didn't happen as described in the book.

superflyweight wrote:If anyone hasn't read Vance's memoirs, 'Hillbilly Elegy', then don't!  

It's crap.  Full of cliches about 'hill people wisdom' and jam packed with exaggerations and stories that almost certainly didn't happen as described in the book.

Riptide was a decent song though.