2024 US Presidential Election

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Thought we should have a thread on it, as Ron DeSantis is expected to launch his campaign on Twitter this evening. He's trailing Trump by a big margin for the Republican nomination, around 37% behind in the polling average. But there's a lot of time for things to change and the oddsmakers only have DeSantis as a 2/1 outsider, against Trump's 2/5. Doesn't appear to be any other serious contenders for the Republican nomination at this point.

Biden is expected to run again and defend his crown, but his advancing age (he's into his 80s now) and low approval ratings means he may be vulnerable to a Democratic challenger. The most likely challenger seems to be Robert Kennedy Jr. who has already announced his candidacy and has polled as high as 21%, but that was still 49% behind Biden. As such, Biden's a 2/9 clear favourite to be the Democrat nominee in 2024, but if he drops out for whatever reason then the race is wide open.

Only 531 days until the election...

Black voters were a problem for Clinton....1994 crime bill that screwed low level offenders saw to that....Hence the reason Kamala from California and not from a swing state was selected...

Caroline Kennedy is white and a New Englander which is blue to the hilt...No real value there...Besides she supported Obama and the Democratic party is still basically owned by Clintonites..

Arizona.......Trump 47...Biden 37.....RFK 10%

Biden won Arizona in 2020.

And a poll putting Trump up in Iowa by 18%, he won it by about 8% in 2020. A poll in New Mexico, one of the solid blue states, has only recorded a 7% lead for Biden (he won it by 11% in 2020) with independents favouring Trump.

Overall, the RCP average gives Trump a national lead of 0.8%, which is a 10.3% improvement from this time four years ago.

And FiveThirtyEight's tracker is now, narrowly, favouring Trump.

Democrats need to ditch Biden so badly. If he has a terrible debate performance this month, it might be the motivation they need to give him the shove. Net approval currently -17.7%, Trump's is -11.8%. Quite something to be more unpopular than Trump, but Biden has achieved it.

Duty281 wrote:Christ, not even New York is safe. Recent polls giving Biden leads of just 6% and 9%, with independents breaking for Trump. This was a state Biden won by 23% in 2020. The lowest lead any poll had him in 2020 was 19%.

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-york-2024-poll-biden-48-trump-41/

Another poll out in New York indicating how relatively tight it is, with Biden leading 47%-39%. Independents in NY going *heavily* for Trump at 45%-28%.

The Hill/Emerson's latest polling (with Kennedy):

Trump leads by 4% in Arizona; 8% in Georgia; 2% in Michigan; 3% in Nevada; 3% in Pennsylvania; 2% in Wisconsin; 1% in Minnesota.

Tight states, but Trump continues to edge in front. That's the first poll from Minnesota to put Trump in front, but he'll be concerned at how much tighter Nevada is with this one.

New York Times polltracker..

National - Trump 46...Biden 46

Wisconsin....Trump 47...Biden 46
Michigan.....Trump 48...Biden 46
Pennsyl.......Trump 48...Biden 46
Nevada.......Trump 49...Biden 45
Arizona.......Trump 48...Biden 45
Georgia......Trump 49...Biden 46
North Car....Trump 48...Biden 43

Nothing to concerning for Sleepy Joe in these if like me you expect the usual incumbent bounce to come later....But shows it's all to play for.

Debate in a few hours. Going to be a case of who crashes the least!

Duty281 wrote:Debate in a few hours. Going to be a case of who crashes the least!

Is it too late to have a sweepstake on the candidate and timing of the first stroke?

From what I saw of the debate, it was mostly Trump just outright lying, and Biden sounding pretty unsure/ confused.

Just watched a few clips of debate, Biden didn't look good. Confused, uncertain etc. Trump usual bluster etc.
An assessment afterwards seemed to be the optics were terrible for Biden but he got the facts right. Trump nothing of substance and some outright lies but he was way more composed and coherent.

Seems a debate now ongoing with democrats as to whether Biden will be replaced?

Clips I saw were from BBC

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c88800k2njkt

Just saw the whole thing.

Absolute disaster for Biden. Struggled to finish sentences, got muddled in the middle of them, and lots of sentences where he just mumbled some unintelligible sounds. Most of us know Biden isn't fit to be President. He was bad in 2020, but four years on his mental decline is a hell of a lot worse. I wonder who really is President, because you can't seriously tell me that this guy works ten hours a day, leads meetings and has the mental capacity to make policy decisions, like an actual President should.

Many on the fence voters would have been watching. They would have been seriously turned off Biden.

I did wonder if moving the debate this early was a test for Biden. If he flops, there's still time to get rid; if he swims, great. Well, he flopped. Big league. He's trailing in the polls by a decent amount, he's losing the race, and he's just lost a debate to Trump* (67-33 on a CNN poll for Trump). It's time to go. The Democrats can definitely win this and defeat Trump with a competent candidate.

*I think this is the first Presidential debate Trump has ever done where a post-debate poll awarded him the victory.

Muting the microphones was a superb idea (we should have it over here). And, as I thought, it played out best for Trump, because it put a restraint on his idiocy. Doubtless, if the microphones had been left on, Trump would have interrupted Biden 78 times and would have looked all the worse for it. Some thought this wouldn't help Trump, but I don't really know why.

It was also the first political debate I've seen where the candidates consistently spoke *under* the agreed time limit, as opposed to consistently speaking over time.

Problem is who? Kamala Harris not popular at all and so it's who else at this late stage.

Pretty much disaster for democrats.

As you say, everyone knew(although some wouldn't admit it)that Biden just isn't up to it. Been obvious for some time and this has confirmed it.

It's a tough call for the Dems because Biden, even if marginally fit for office now, will clearly be completely unfit or dead at some point well before the next 4 years are up. I doubt they will oust him, so their best shot is that he can somehow be convinced by those closest to him that he needs to step aside - for his own good, if nothing else.
Trump also has a decent chance of losing it or dying as well. Am I correct in saying that if he wins, he will end up as the oldest ever President by the time he's done?
His endless lies are staggering, but then they always have been, and he is morally corrupt but his base don't care about his morals. My personal favourite is his claim that the Dems want abortion after birth. You couldn't make it up, but no-one seems to care.

mountain man wrote:Problem is who? Kamala Harris not popular at all and so it's who else at this late stage.

Pretty much disaster for democrats.

As you say, everyone knew(although some wouldn't admit it)that Biden just isn't up to it. Been obvious for some time and this has confirmed it.

I'm not sure who, but there must be someone. They've got 47 Senators, 213 Representatives and 23 Governors. One of those.

Newsom is the main challenger according to the odds. Biden is 8/13 to be the Democrats candidate, Newsom 5/2. Kamala 13/2. Michelle Obama 7/1.

JuliusHMarx wrote:It's a tough call for the Dems because Biden, even if marginally fit for office now, will clearly be completely unfit or dead at some point well before the next 4 years are up. I doubt they will oust him, so their best shot is that he can somehow be convinced by those closest to him that he needs to step aside - for his own good, if nothing else.
Trump also has a decent chance of losing it or dying as well. Am I correct in saying that if he wins, he will end up as the oldest ever President by the time he's done?
His endless lies are staggering, but then they always have been, and he is morally corrupt but his base don't care about his morals. My personal favourite is his claim that the Dems want abortion after birth. You couldn't make it up, but no-one seems to care.

Yes, marginally. Biden is currently the oldest and will be 82 and just under two months by the time of the end of his first term. If Trump were to win, he'd be 82 and six months by the end of his second term in early 2029.

I still think Anti-Trump sentiment is strong enough that he'll lose the popular vote (again) but Im not so confident he wont win the most college votes. And I seriously doubt the college will break convention and nominate Biden instead.

I thought Trump would lose the popular vote, but now I'm not so sure. He's leading by 2.6% on the RCP average (11% better than this time four years ago), and 0.2% on the FiveThirtyEight average, and Trump generally advances in the polls the later the campaign gets. This is meant to be his fallow time. And he'll probably get a boost from Biden's debate disaster.

Electoral College for Trump isn't going to be a problem against Biden.

Worth remembering also that Biden's approval numbers are lower than Trump's. Biden is less popular than Trump.

I suspect quite a few undecided may be swayed by last nights debate. Trump didn't win it but it seems Biden lost it.

Theres also the distinct possibility that both Dems and GOP used this debate to see how their man performed. Theres still time before both conventions to replace both Trump and Biden, although I wouldnt bet on it.

This truly is the giant douche/turd sandwich prophecy that South Park warned us about.

I think Biden's corpse would likely be better that a live Trump as POTUS for any meaningful purposes, but Biden's performance wasn't great. Live debate and considered backroom diplomacy are completely different, but the US public won't even consider that possibility.

Biden seems to a decent enough guy at heart. He's beaten Trump once and had a distinguished political career, alongside some significant problems in his family life. I'd hope that he might see that him stepping aside might be better for the country he loves than any personal feelings of failure.

So who has been the "brains" in the White House creating the executive orders for Biden to sign?

Mainstream media now pulling the plug on Biden, with the NYT calling on Biden to drop out. They're finally catching up to, or finally publicly admitting, what most of us have known for years. Seems very clear this debate was a test for Biden.

For now, Biden and his campaign team seem determined to stay in the race. Well if they want to hand the election to Trump they should just stay the current course. But the pressure's going to be very hard to ride out.

The one thing they do have going for them is that they're up against Trump; people already know who he is, there probably aren't many genuine undecideds out there, and if people were leaning Biden, I'm not sure Trump did anything that would make them like him more than they did before.

Pre debate poll in the state of New Jersey putting Trump up by one, 41%-40% (Kennedy included). Wow.

For reference, this state was won by Biden by 16% in 2020, and the lowest polling lead he had in this state was 15% in the 2020 election cycle. Now, Trump has posted a 1% lead, highlighting how badly it's going for Biden so far. If Trump won NJ he'd be looking at 400 on the EC scoreboard.

Give it up, Joe.

Duty281 wrote:Pre debate poll in the state of New Jersey putting Trump up by one, 41%-40% (Kennedy included). Wow.

For reference, this state was won by Biden by 16% in 2020, and the lowest polling lead he had in this state was 15% in the 2020 election cycle. Now, Trump has posted a 1% lead, highlighting how badly it's going for Biden so far. If Trump won NJ he'd be looking at 400 on the EC scoreboard.

Give it up, Joe.

Problem for Sleepy Joe who needs to retire is his Son Hunter and the fact his Wife likes being first lady.......New York Times and other Democratic publications have unhelpfully told him he needs to go because he isn't up to it....So the "Secret" is out.

Problem is Harris polls worse than him and will lose to Trump and she is the likely replacement........

Should Trump win he will likely want revenge and who better to target than Daddy's little boy.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Pre debate poll in the state of New Jersey putting Trump up by one, 41%-40% (Kennedy included). Wow.

For reference, this state was won by Biden by 16% in 2020, and the lowest polling lead he had in this state was 15% in the 2020 election cycle. Now, Trump has posted a 1% lead, highlighting how badly it's going for Biden so far. If Trump won NJ he'd be looking at 400 on the EC scoreboard.

Give it up, Joe.

Problem for Sleepy Joe who needs to retire is his Son Hunter and the fact his Wife likes being first lady.......New York Times and other Democratic publications have unhelpfully told him he needs to go because he isn't up to it....So the "Secret" is out.

Problem is Harris polls worse than him and will lose to Trump and she is the likely replacement........

Should Trump win he will likely want revenge and who better to target than Daddy's little boy.

If Biden withdraws, doesn't that mean it's something that the Democrats' Convention will decide? If so, can't see Harris getting the nod.

Interesting SCOTUS decision re. Trump immunity for 'official' acts as President. I can sort of see their logic, but guess the House and Senate need to seriously think about whether the U.S. Constitution needs updating. This they also need to ask whether their pathetic and partisan bickering needs to stop, especially re. suitability of individuals for high office. The electorate really needs to think seriously about just whom they're voting for later this year, w/o all the childish zero sum rubbish.

The SCOTUS decision might offer Biden's best chance for victory. He can now have Trump assassinated without being prosecuted for it.

New poll, post debate poll, putting Trump up by 2% in New Hampshire. This is another state that should be comfortable for the Democrats, but under Biden it's turning into a battleground.

That video of Joe has resurfaced again.

I seem to recall it was also used last time but was brushed aside by the mainstream media (or got drowned out by other noise) at the time.

Looking at it again, it was a pretty intense and brutal character assassination. Amazing how he has managed to survive in the game for so long.

Spoiler:

https://puck.news/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/SUNDAY_Post-Debate_Landscape_2024_06_30__1_-1.pdf

Leaked internal polling from the Democrats (leaked intentionally? Perhaps) showing how finished Biden is.

He's 7.3% down in Pennsylvania, the key state that gets Trump to 270, but is also losing states down to New Mexico and Virginia, in a nightmare of epic proportions. Gives the Republicans about 335 on the EC.

Biden's net favourability is in the gutter at -21%. Trump's is -10%. Kamala's is marginally more unfavourable at -10.7%. Buttigieg, Whitmer and Newsom are all much more popular, with the caveat of a high number of don't knows.

Biden blaming jet lag on his dire debate performance. I mean come on, even if that was true doesn't that just make him and his team look totally incompetent? They weren't aware of time zone differences and how a lot of travel is tiring?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4ngx67qle6o

Biden won't be the candidate.....Democrats know he has a Convention speech to get through....His latest habit is reading out the all the text and not just the speech..

"We need to bring America together pause next paragraph".

It will be Kamala....Why ?? Firstly as VP she would have made some new friends in the party and because Black voters were the difference last time and unless it's Michelle Obama then the black lady will have been jobbed.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Biden won't be the candidate

As I understand it, the issue is that the mechanisms they built into the nomination process in the last few cycles to keep the undesirables out, now make it very difficult to nominate anyone else unless Biden steps aside. Biden('s inner circle) seems to have absolutely no intention of doing so.

Lowlandbrit wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Biden won't be the candidate

As I understand it, the issue is that the mechanisms they built into the nomination process in the last few cycles to keep the undesirables out, now make it very difficult to nominate anyone else unless Biden steps aside. Biden('s inner circle) seems to have absolutely no intention of doing so.

They can still threaten him with the 25th amendment......

Why would spouses of former Presidents be suggested as Presidential Candidates - if a brain surgeon retires would they suggest replacing that person with his or her spouse?

If Biden does step aside and it appears there is no chance he will do so then its likely to be Harris and she is very unpopular even with a lot of Democrats. Yes she ticks a few boxes with being black and female but if she did get to run I'd say she'd have no chance.

As for spouse of former President I guess you mean Michell Obama? Always ruled herself out as far as I know although she'd be a million times better than Biden/Harris. A lot of people would want her to run.

The national opinion polls coming out since the debate are horrific for Biden.

NY Times/Siena puts Trump up by 5%
WallStreetJournal puts Trump up by 6%.
CBS puts Trump up by 4%.
Yahoo and YouGov putting Trump up by 2%.

Trump could lose the national vote by a few % and still take the Electoral College. Winning the national vote by this margin puts him on course for a big EC win.

Anyone supporting Biden to stay in the race is supporting Trump by proxy.

No name Bertie wrote:Why would spouses of former Presidents be suggested as Presidential Candidates - if a brain surgeon retires would they suggest replacing that person with his or her spouse?

Nepotism has always run wild....Adams and his Son Quincy....Bush and his Son......Clinton and his Wife.....Kennedys......Roosevelts.....

Worse even lower.......Rockefellers...Romneys.....The Dodge Father and Son were both in the Senate at the same time...Huey Long and his Son the same...Rand Paul and his Daddy...

It's bunkum the old phrase anybody can be President..

Just watching BBC news and Biden insisted he's running.
They showed him at a ceremony after and he was dithering and just doesn't look right
All media over there questioning him running and calling for him to stand down
I cannot believe his wife and advisors haven't seen the light and had a word. There is no way he can last another term even if he did win and apparently all polls saying he's too old and incapable.

If the Democratic Party don't officially nominate Biden as their Presidential Candidate how will the Democratic Party explain the fact that Biden won their Primary Election easily?

"From January 23 to June 8, 2024, presidential primaries and caucuses were organized by the Democratic Party to select the delegates to the 2024 Democratic National Convention, to determine the party's nominee for president in the 2024 United States presidential election. The elections took place in most U.S. states, the District of Columbia, five U.S. territories, and Democrats Abroad.  Incumbent President Joe Biden is running for re-election with Vice President Kamala Harris returning as his running mate.  On March 12, Biden secured enough delegates for re-nomination and was declared the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

If Biden is really so "old" and "senile" surely people from the Democratic Party would have noticed this earlier - and certainly before the primaries - to ensure democratic party members would be aware of this and so vote accordingly.  

If it is suddenly "found" Biden is unfit to run for President - then surely he would also be unfit to be President and so would need to be replaced by Kamala Harris immediately following article 25 of the constitution?

Bloomberg/Morning Consult with their monthly poll giving Trump a 287-251 advantage, though surprisingly they did give Biden a 6% lead in Michigan! That's probably as much of an outlier as it was when they were giving Trump a double digit lead in Nevada. They also gave Biden a 3% lead in Wisconsin, but Trump has the key 3% lead in Pennsylvania.

Emerson painting a more decisive picture for Trump. They give Trump a lead in all the swing states, 3% up in Wisconsin, 5% up in Pennsylvania and 1% in Michigan, which would put Trump up to 312 on the EC.

Of greater interest was Emerson's national opinion polling against Biden and various hypothetical candidates:



Maybe Biden is the best choice? He certainly believes it.

George Clooney has now called for Biden to stand aside.

Surely he can't survive that...

Mind the windows Tino. wrote:George Clooney has now called for Biden to stand aside.

Surely he can't survive that...

It's all up in the air.

Biden introducing Zelensky as Putin. Also said Vice President Trump.

It's interesting how this is all front page news and treated as very serious now in the mainstream media. They protected Biden for a long while. His numerous gaffes over the past four years were largely ignored, relegated to small stories or passed off as humorous, even though they were just as bad as introducing Zelensky incorrectly. But now it's a serious matter in the eyes of the traditional media.

Unfortunately, they're still behind. They're still talking in terms of this harming his chances of standing for re-election, when the real question should be about his current Presidency and how fit to serve he is, with six months left.

Yeah the gaffes he made about Putin and Trump were things anyone can say at times, mixing up names but he does it far too often and given this was his opportunity to show US voters and world he was fine then it looks terrible and will only increase calls for him to stand down. He's trying to pass them off as Freudian slips but really he knows he screwed up.

He's what, 81? He's old. Old people do stuff like this. It doesn't mean that the serious business is compromised, but people being the idiots they are, the appearance of incompetence is actually worse than the reality of it as demonstrated by Trump and Johnson, for example.

Definitely bad optics, but optics seems to be all people care about these days. We get what we deserve i.e. mostly Scheiße...

Trump does the same stuff but not as often. The Nancy Pelosi thing, the president of Hungary/Turkey, whatever it was. A couple of days ago he referred to Don Jr's wife, but Don Jr isn't married. He couldn't read properly off autocue last week.
Not that I think Biden should run, but Trump will be just as bad if not worse by the time he's 81.

Trump does and has made similarly bad gaffes but he at least looks robust whereas Biden is plainly frail so looks even worse when he does say wrong thing.
81 is old but there are 81 year olds who are fine, show no signs of mental or physical decline. The same cannot be said of Biden.

Come on, I cannot believe you are still defending Biden. The evidence is out there for all to see.