2024 US Presidential Election

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Thought we should have a thread on it, as Ron DeSantis is expected to launch his campaign on Twitter this evening. He's trailing Trump by a big margin for the Republican nomination, around 37% behind in the polling average. But there's a lot of time for things to change and the oddsmakers only have DeSantis as a 2/1 outsider, against Trump's 2/5. Doesn't appear to be any other serious contenders for the Republican nomination at this point.

Biden is expected to run again and defend his crown, but his advancing age (he's into his 80s now) and low approval ratings means he may be vulnerable to a Democratic challenger. The most likely challenger seems to be Robert Kennedy Jr. who has already announced his candidacy and has polled as high as 21%, but that was still 49% behind Biden. As such, Biden's a 2/9 clear favourite to be the Democrat nominee in 2024, but if he drops out for whatever reason then the race is wide open.

Only 531 days until the election...

Trump questioning whether Kamala Harris is Indian or black. He really does stoop low trying to score points or whatever he thinks he is doing. Hopefully he will lose a lot of the black/asian vote for doing so.

On a separate note, the prisoner swop is a grim reminder of what whoever wins will deal with with Putin. Russia basically kidnaps journalists on false pretences and holds them hostage to bargain for prisoner release of murderers and terrorists.

mountain man wrote:Trump questioning whether Kamala Harris is Indian or black. He really does stoop low trying to score points or whatever he thinks he is doing. Hopefully he will lose a lot of the black/asian vote for doing so....

Did you see the full interaction or just a clip from some media source?

Has anyone been following the reporting of the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election?  My go to media source is the BBC. If you have are you able to compare it with the reporting of the 2020 US Presidential election?  

a) Were they reported in a similar manner.
or
b) Were they reported in an opposite manner.

No name Bertie wrote:

mountain man wrote:Trump questioning whether Kamala Harris is Indian or black. He really does stoop low trying to score points or whatever he thinks he is doing. Hopefully he will lose a lot of the black/asian vote for doing so....

Did you see the full interaction or just a clip from some media source?

Take a look and see what you think.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c06k07dn1zjo

No name Bertie wrote:

mountain man wrote:Trump questioning whether Kamala Harris is Indian or black. He really does stoop low trying to score points or whatever he thinks he is doing. Hopefully he will lose a lot of the black/asian vote for doing so....

Did you see the full interaction or just a clip from some media source?

I watched the full interaction. It was weird.

No name Bertie wrote:Has anyone been following the reporting of the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election?  My go to media source is the BBC. If you have are you able to compare it with the reporting of the 2020 US Presidential election?  

a) Were they reported in a similar manner.
or
b) Were they reported in an opposite manner.

Why would they be reported in a similar manner

Don't really know enough about Venezuela/Maduro, but if the U.S. is against the result of their recent election, suggest people bear in mind their previous behaviour, and the media's role, in central/south America re. El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Chile etc. Maybe Maduro and his supporters aren't 'worthy'?

navyblueshorts wrote:Don't really know enough about Venezuela/Maduro, but if the U.S. is against the result of their recent election, suggest people bear in mind their previous behaviour, and the media's role, in central/south America re. El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Chile etc. Maybe Maduro and his supporters aren't 'worthy'?

Maduro isn't a fan of the USA but the issue is that he's doing his best to do the dictator thing and lie about the election results, and the people are not happy.

I find too much of the beeb's coverage very weak these days

lostinwales wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:Don't really know enough about Venezuela/Maduro, but if the U.S. is against the result of their recent election, suggest people bear in mind their previous behaviour, and the media's role, in central/south America re. El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Chile etc. Maybe Maduro and his supporters aren't 'worthy'?

Maduro isn't a fan of the USA but the issue is that he's doing his best to do the dictator thing and lie about the election results, and the people are not happy.

I find too much of the beeb's coverage very weak these days

Is what we read/hear about Maduro, simply a western media portrayal that doesn't bear a lot of relationship to the truth? Have to admit, having read Herman & Chomsky's 'Manufacturing Consent', I'm not at all sure what to trust re. the media portrayals of someone like Maduro and his administration.

Is there any actual info on the election from any trustworthy, independent, election monitors that supports the idea that Maduro didn't actually win?

FiveThirtyEight now has Harris ahead nationally and in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump still ahead in 4 other key states.

Still waiting on FiveThirtyEight's new election model. The last one came in for some pelters as it had Trump v Biden being a level race, so they're taking extra time to sort it out.

Nancy Pelosi is suggesting, perhaps, a monument for Joe Biden somewhere appropriate.

Mt Rushmore? Could have him lying down sideways I suppose.

Tim Walz is Kamala's pick for running mate.

Don't know much about him, but seems a sensible choice based on geography.

Feels like the trump campaign is really floundering for any kind of momentum ATM. Vance feels pretty uninspired, none of the attack lines on Kamala are really landing and Elon is doing his bit to make supporting trump feel like being an extremist nutjob

Economy seems an easy in for Trump that resonates with normal people

It's a decent time for Kamala. She's getting the double bounce of being the new nominee, and anything is better than Biden so it's a huge relief, as well as picking her running mate.

Definitely a tougher challenge for Trump. He needs to hammer the economy and immigration message every day until November.

This is actually quite funny, Trump mixing up Willie Brown with Jerry Brown and coming up with a completely made up story about a scary helicopter ride, then making up some quotes. How can anyone take this guy seriously?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c985enjgdy9o

Haven't had a poll posted here in a while.

Man the MAGA folks really dont like being called weird, do they?

Much hyped poll out in North Carolina over the weekend showing a tie between Harris and Trump, which would be incredible for the Democrats. Nate Silver urging caution, however, because it had a partisan Democrat sponsor.

If the result were replicated on election night you'd expect Harris to win comfortably. She's still riding an incredible wave of early momentum, with Trump currently taking a backseat in campaigning. But you would expect that momentum to fade and Trump to come back into the equation soon.

Looks like we're heading for a very close race again. Silver's model has shown Harris' chances of victory have gone from 37.2% to 53.4% over the last couple of weeks.

Have to say I'm slightly surprised at how well Harris is being received by Democrats as when just VP her ratings were woeful but I guess far better than alternative which was Biden as just about everyone knew he wasn't up to it and was a liability if he hadn't pulled out.

The timing of Biden stepping aside is looking like an accidental masterstroke at the moment. All the Republicans strategy against Biden, understandably, was pointing out how old he is. Vance was clearly an attempt to just double down on Trumps base.

Since that embarrassing debate and Biden then stepping aside, Trump's own age is increasingly showing and the Republicans have hung themselves with their own attacks in a way. Meanwhile, Walz has been very well received as a VP pick with good press following the odd and frankly funny reaction to from the opposition when he called them weird. Not going with Shapiro was a shock given he'd have helped in Pennsylvania especially. It's working though, Shapiro has still been at the fore in rallies. Whilst Vance is an absolute liability.

The poll shift in a short space of time has been massive.

I think the Democrats put the debate in the summer so as to give Biden a chance to sink or swim. If he sunk, as he did, they had time to replace him, although it still wasn't ideal. But better than leaving it until September/October when it would have been too late.

Harris is riding a strong wave of momentum and we'll see how long she can keep it up. I think it's fair to say we're somewhere between toss-up and Harris narrowly ahead at this point in time.

Does Trump have the capacity to make another late surge in the polls happen, or does he have to rely on opponent error? Agree his VP pick appears to be bad. Weirdly, Trump doesn't seem to have any enthusiasm with regards to his VP pick, so I wonder why the choice was made?

Trump also suffered technical glitches on X during his 'interview' with Musk, which shows X is cursed after DeSantis's terrible campaign launch on the platform.

Polls recently only giving Trump a 5% and 6% lead in Florida and Texas respectively, which really isn't bad from a Democrat perspective.

Seems a fair bit of maga fatigue at this point, not least from the man himself. He looks like he's feeling his age. Don't think elon is helping cut through with normal people as above.

Lot of hype for Trump as a great campaigner, in hindsight, maybe Hillary was just a very good draw

I do think Trump is a very good campaigner, but would certainly agree that there is fatigue set in now, both from himself and some of his believers who have seen all the carnival tricks a million times before.

Trump's like a nearly shot boxer. Aging, tired, but looking for one last knockout to propel him into the big time. Against Biden, a similarly shot fighter, he would have got that knockout. But now he's up against a fresher opponent and it's a tough battle.

Some very, very good poll numbers for Harris. The Cook Political Report with a bunch of polls from swing states.

Harris leading by four percent in Arizona (with Kennedy included; two percent without); tied in Georgia (with and without Kennedy); leading by three percent in Michigan (two percent without Kennedy); leading by two percent in North Carolina (one percent without Kennedy); leading by five percent in Pennsylvania (one percent without Kennedy); and five percent in Wisconsin (three percent without Kennedy).

The only relief for Trump is he leads in Nevada by five percent (three without Kennedy).

Such polling numbers would net a 297-225 win for the Democrats, with Georgia undecided and irrelevant (offering just 16 EC votes).

That's very concerning polling for Trump, with particular regard to North Carolina which would be a shocking loss if it happened (Trump currently campaigning there). Trump was leading in all these states, bar Wisconsin, the last time polling was done by this company (three months ago v Biden). I suppose the one thing you could look at from Trump's perspective is that Harris is riding a high wave of momentum and these races are still pretty tight - if Trump were to win Georgia, and flip NC and Michigan (all 3% or fewer margins on this polling) then he would win.

Also concerning for Trump is another poll in Florida only putting him 3% up, when it should be safer, albeit 3% is what he won it by in 2020.

One of the problems for the Republicans now is that Trump's instinct will be to attack, which really isn't the way to convert any floating voters to his cause. I'm not sure he can be persuaded not to do it either. He'll also do his usual thing of lying unnecessarily, which is also unlikely to appeal to people who don't currently plan on voting for him.

I wonder how long it'll be before he fires some of his campaign team? I mean, it can't possibly be his own fault that he's trailing, he's a stable genius!

I don't think it'll be a problem for Trump to go on the attack. It's arguably where he's best. He managed to close the gap in 2016 and 2020 in the final weeks doing this.

It's going to be a big election for the polling companies as well. They got it wrong in 2016. They got it really, really wrong in 2020, overstating Biden more than they did Clinton. And I wonder what effect that will have in this race. Are they overcompensating for Trump this time? Time will tell.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:One of the problems for the Republicans now is that Trump's instinct will be to attack, which really isn't the way to convert any floating voters to his cause. I'm not sure he can be persuaded not to do it either. He'll also do his usual thing of lying unnecessarily, which is also unlikely to appeal to people who don't currently plan on voting for him.

I wonder how long it'll be before he fires some of his campaign team? I mean, it can't possibly be his own fault that he's trailing, he's a stable genius!

Aidan O'Brien is a stable genius.

Duty281 wrote:I don't think it'll be a problem for Trump to go on the attack. It's arguably where he's best. He managed to close the gap in 2016 and 2020 in the final weeks doing this.

It's going to be a big election for the polling companies as well. They got it wrong in 2016. They got it really, really wrong in 2020, overstating Biden more than they did Clinton. And I wonder what effect that will have in this race. Are they overcompensating for Trump this time? Time will tell.

I don't know how they expect to get anything like an accurate picture. Too many of an electorate either won't admit what they're going to do in an election, too many outright lie re. what they'll be doing and too many are undecided when asked. Best everyone ignores them, really.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:One of the problems for the Republicans now is that Trump's instinct will be to attack, which really isn't the way to convert any floating voters to his cause. I'm not sure he can be persuaded not to do it either. He'll also do his usual thing of lying unnecessarily, which is also unlikely to appeal to people who don't currently plan on voting for him.

I wonder how long it'll be before he fires some of his campaign team? I mean, it can't possibly be his own fault that he's trailing, he's a stable genius!

Aidan O'Brien is a stable genius.

Acknowledged.

Very confusing poll out from NYT/Siena, giving Harris the lead in Arizona and NC...but Trump has the lead in Nevada and Georgia. Would be a very odd election if Harris wins NC but not Georgia!

Hasn't been a bad couple of days for Trump's numbers until that poll. Emerson making it a tie in Pennsylvania and Fox making it a tie nationally. Fabrizio putting Trump a couple ahead in Michigan. Cygnal putting Trump one up in Pennsylvania.

It's the DNC next week. Should give Harris a small boost.

Redfield and Wilton in with some swing state polling, accompanied by their beautiful graphics. Basically, just underlining how tight the race is. This polling, if accurate, would return a 267-255 advantage for the Republicans, with Georgia currently a tie and that state would decide the race. But the numbers are tight almost everywhere.

I don't think there's any need to include New Mexico as a swing state. True, if Biden were still running, Trump would probably be winning there, along with Virginia and Colorado, but Harris is doing better than Biden and it's not, currently, up as a battleground.

Interestingly, Redfield note that Kennedy is no longer taking more votes from the Democrats than the Republicans, but his numbers are so tiny it could be difficult to judge.

More convincingly, Walz has positive net favourability in all of these states, while Vance is seen as a negative everywhere except Florida, Georgia and NC. Could be a key factor in such a close race.



On the biggest issues, Trump is trusted more on the economy, inflation and immigration in all of these states, but Harris is stronger on healthcare, abortion and election integrity.

I'm still frankly amazed at how well she has been received, especially given how poor she was rated when VP to Biden. And seemingly the "honeymoon" period hasn't worn off, momentum is increasing.

Very light on policy detail so far though, it seems voters in US go on impression on candidate and personality way more than they do in UK.

mountain man wrote:I'm still frankly amazed at how well she has been received, especially given how poor she was rated when VP to Biden. And seemingly the "honeymoon" period hasn't worn off, momentum is increasing.

Very light on policy detail so far though, it seems voters in US go on impression on candidate and personality way more than they do in UK.

You think? I give you the catastrophe that was Boris Johnson. Inveterate liar, philanderer and PoS, but he did have a quasi-tousled hair style, a way with ancient Greek historical characters and long words...

It would explain this, though:

Duty281 wrote:...On the biggest issues, Trump is trusted more on the economy, inflation and immigration in all of these states, but Harris is stronger on healthcare, abortion and election integrity.

He's a sociopathic child who's only out for one thing - himself.

Harris leading by three in Virginia in the latest poll there, which is annoyingly close from a Democrat perspective. And with it offering 13 EC votes, more than Arizona or Wisconsin, it can't be ignored.

It's a strange state. No one expected it to be a battleground state (Democrats won it by 10% in 2020), but the numbers are pushing it that way, and it will only be a boost for Trump if Harris has to spend extra time/money in Virginia to secure it.

I mentioned yesterday about Walz's positive net favourability in all of those aforementioned states. In this poll in Virginia, his ratings are -17, although that's still higher than Vance.

I reckon Vance's parents missed a trick by calling him James instead of Andrew.

JuliusHMarx wrote:I reckon Vance's parents missed a trick by calling him James instead of Andrew.

I reckon yours missed a trick calling you JuliusH and not Onyer.

Galted wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:I reckon Vance's parents missed a trick by calling him James instead of Andrew.

I reckon yours missed a trick calling you JuliusH and not Onyer.

That's a bit Rich!

Pal Joey wrote:

Galted wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:I reckon Vance's parents missed a trick by calling him James instead of Andrew.

I reckon yours missed a trick calling you JuliusH and not Onyer.

That's a bit Rich!

Don't harpo on about it.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is planning to drop out of the presidential race by the end of this week, sources familiar with the decision tell ABC News.

Sources tell ABC News that Kennedy plans to endorse Donald Trump -- but when asked directly by ABC News if he will be endorsing the former president, Kennedy said, "I will not confirm or deny that."

Kennedy's independent effort has gone nowhere and it seems he'll soon be throwing in the towel. Might be a very minor boost to Trump if Kennedy drops out, and in a very close race like this it might make all the difference.

Duty281 wrote:Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is planning to drop out of the presidential race by the end of this week, sources familiar with the decision tell ABC News.

Sources tell ABC News that Kennedy plans to endorse Donald Trump -- but when asked directly by ABC News if he will be endorsing the former president, Kennedy said, "I will not confirm or deny that."

Kennedy's independent effort has gone nowhere and it seems he'll soon be throwing in the towel. Might be a very minor boost to Trump if Kennedy drops out, and in a very close race like this it might make all the difference.

Maybe, but yet another 'weirdo' in that camp might not help that much...

Kennedy throwing his support to Trump. Kennedy says he's suspending his campaign, not ending it. His name will remain on the ballot in safe states, but he will be removing his presence on the ballot from 'about ten battleground states'.

Will be interesting to see which states he takes his name away from. Presumably Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, NC, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will all be included in that. They're the absolutely key battleground states.

Actually, I've done some further reading, and it seems it will be impossible for Kennedy to take his name off the ballot in some states/counties (such as Wisconsin and maybe NC), because of deadlines and such.

Overall, probably a very minuscule boost to Trump.

His family are outraged at him backing Trump, the Kennedy name one of most famous Democrat dynasties in US politics and he's gone Republican.
I agree, a minor boost if at all for Trump.

They do seem a very dysfunctional family!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5ylj0qg2rwo

Bit of a disagreement over the debate scheduled for September 10th. The Trump campaign wants the microphones muted when the candidate isn't speaking during the debate. The Harris campaign wants the microphones left on at all times. That's very sensible from both from the perspective of their campaigns. Although Trump is wading in and going against his campaign team by saying he wants the microphones left on at all times (not very smart!).

Trump is also back on X and is writing many tweets with lots of capital letters and exclamation marks.

A Morning Consult poll puts Harris up 4% nationally, which is about what Biden led by in 2020, but Echelon putting the national race at a tie. Overall, it's been a decent couple of weeks for Trump, with Harris's momentum tapering off. Silver's model, for example, had Trump's chances of victory down at 42.7% 12 days ago, but it has steadily increased to its present position of 47.2%.

The Hill/Emerson coming out with polls in the swing states.

Trump leading by 3% in Arizona, 1% in North Carolina and 1% in Wisconsin. Harris leads by 1% in Georgia, 3% in Michigan and 1% in Nevada. Pennsylvania is tied.

That's absolutely wild polling and shows how fantastically close it is. It would be 263-256 in favour of the Democrats, with Pennsylvania deciding it, but all states are within the margin of error. North Carolina is definitely a tight, battleground state now, very similar to Georgia.

Emerson's polling also shows that Harris has the lead over Trump with independents in all states bar Nevada, but that the most important issue in all states is the economy, where Trump still has the advantage.

Fox with similarly tight polling. Harris leading by 1% in Arizona, 2% in Georgia and Nevada, with Trump ahead by 1% in NC.

Silver's model putting Trump's chances up to 49.2%. The race is minutely poised.

JuliusHMarx wrote:I reckon Vance's parents missed a trick by calling him James instead of Andrew.

His surname at birth was Bowman, and probably went by the nickname of Pyle when he was a marine

Harris very light on policy statements etc, and giving first interview with Walz alongside a sign of insecurity maybe?
I'm looking forward to debate with Trump, he is just spouting all sorts of insults and accusations at her(quelle surprise) so I expect it will be fiesty. She'll I'm sure be able to keep composure but it's answering questions with facts and policies that's needs to be seen.

Trump will attack and make it very nasty and personal, Harris needs to remain above that.

lostinwales wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:I reckon Vance's parents missed a trick by calling him James instead of Andrew.

His surname at birth was Bowman, and probably went by the nickname of Pyle when he was a marine

Neither of which would have A.D.Vance-d him.

Going into September now. Voting can start in some places soon. North Carolina is sending out ballots on September 6th.

Polling averages 538

Arizona = Harris leads by 0.2%; Nevada = Harris leads by 0.8%; North Carolina = Trump leads by 0.4%; Georgia = Harris leads by 0.4%; Pennsylvania = Harris leads by 1.2%; Michigan = Harris leads by 2.4%; Wisconsin = Harris leads by 3.2%.

Polling averages RCP

Arizona = Trump leads by 0.5%; Nevada = Tie; North Carolina = Trump leads by 0.6%; Georgia = Trump leads by 0.2%; Pennsylvania = Harris leads by 0.5%; Michigan = Harris leads by 1.1%; Wisconsin = Harris leads by 1.4%.

So, yeah, it's still extremely close! Pennsylvania is likely to be the key state. Safe to say Harris' combined bounce from the announcement of her candidature/DNC is now fading away. The next big event is the debate in eight days time.

Harris and Trump are both 10/11 to win the election on Bet365. Silver's model now makes Trump a narrow favourite, putting him at 55.8% likely to win, from a low of 42.7% just two and a half weeks ago. FiveThirtyEight's new model goes the other way and puts Harris as the 56.5% favourite.