2024 US Presidential Election

First topic message reminder :

Thought we should have a thread on it, as Ron DeSantis is expected to launch his campaign on Twitter this evening. He's trailing Trump by a big margin for the Republican nomination, around 37% behind in the polling average. But there's a lot of time for things to change and the oddsmakers only have DeSantis as a 2/1 outsider, against Trump's 2/5. Doesn't appear to be any other serious contenders for the Republican nomination at this point.

Biden is expected to run again and defend his crown, but his advancing age (he's into his 80s now) and low approval ratings means he may be vulnerable to a Democratic challenger. The most likely challenger seems to be Robert Kennedy Jr. who has already announced his candidacy and has polled as high as 21%, but that was still 49% behind Biden. As such, Biden's a 2/9 clear favourite to be the Democrat nominee in 2024, but if he drops out for whatever reason then the race is wide open.

Only 531 days until the election...

Trump's problem is that Harris and Georgia are being under sold.....She is black and is a shoo in there...

Which almost certainly means Trump will have to carry Penn...Mich and Ohio...and I can't see it....He may take Michigan....

It was always a problem if one of Biden or Trump dropped out for the one that was left in the race..Trump exacerbated his problem by picking a complete Lemon VP running mate who has values that come from back water redneckville during the slavery era...

Over for me.......Harris will be a disaster but she is better than Trump....The bar isn't high.

Ohio should be easy for Trump to win (latest poll giving him a 10% lead). If he loses there, it's a landslide for Harris. It's not considered a battleground state at the moment.

Latest poll from NY Times/Siena is a national one, and it (surprisingly) gives Trump a 48-47 advantage in the popular vote, extending to 47-45 when the minor candidates are included. That's a tremendous poll for Trump. He can likely lose the popular vote by up to nearly 3% and still expect to win the EC, so actually winning the popular vote would virtually guarantee carrying the EC.

Harris' bounce has gone and the pressure is more on her to deliver something at the debate on Tuesday, which might be the only debate between the two.

Trump is now a 8/11 favourite, Harris 11/10. Silver's model has put Trump's chances of winning up to 61.5%. FiveThirtyEight still favouring Harris at 54.9%.

Duty281 wrote:Ohio should be easy for Trump to win (latest poll giving him a 10% lead). If he loses there, it's a landslide for Harris. It's not considered a battleground state at the moment.

Latest poll from NY Times/Siena is a national one, and it (surprisingly) gives Trump a 48-47 advantage in the popular vote, extending to 47-45 when the minor candidates are included. That's a tremendous poll for Trump. He can likely lose the popular vote by up to nearly 3% and still expect to win the EC, so actually winning the popular vote would virtually guarantee carrying the EC.

Harris' bounce has gone and the pressure is more on her to deliver something at the debate on Tuesday, which might be the only debate between the two.

Trump is now a 8/11 favourite, Harris 11/10. Silver's model has put Trump's chances of winning up to 61.5%. FiveThirtyEight still favouring Harris at 54.9%.

The fact that two polls can come up with such widely varied results surely tells you how much faith anyone should put in any of them...

alfie wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Ohio should be easy for Trump to win (latest poll giving him a 10% lead). If he loses there, it's a landslide for Harris. It's not considered a battleground state at the moment.

Latest poll from NY Times/Siena is a national one, and it (surprisingly) gives Trump a 48-47 advantage in the popular vote, extending to 47-45 when the minor candidates are included. That's a tremendous poll for Trump. He can likely lose the popular vote by up to nearly 3% and still expect to win the EC, so actually winning the popular vote would virtually guarantee carrying the EC.

Harris' bounce has gone and the pressure is more on her to deliver something at the debate on Tuesday, which might be the only debate between the two.

Trump is now a 8/11 favourite, Harris 11/10. Silver's model has put Trump's chances of winning up to 61.5%. FiveThirtyEight still favouring Harris at 54.9%.

The fact that two polls can come up with such widely varied results surely tells you how much faith anyone should put in any of them...

I mean, it's not that wild a difference in the two models.

Silver's model is the more established one. It's the old FiveThirtyEight one that was highly credited in 2016/2020, but was guilty of underestimating Trump's chances in both elections. FiveThirtyEight's new model is on stonier ground after appearing to drastically overestimate Biden's hopes this year, before getting pulled and then tinkered with.

The only thing we can be sure of is that it's a very tight election, just like last time.

It is going to be interesting how many Republicans, former Republicans etc are going to openly support Kamilla Harris.  

Recently the BBC headlined former VP Dick Cheney endorsing Kamilla Harris claiming that Trump is a liar, woman hater etc.  Also we had headlined John McCain's son endorsing Kamilla Harris after Trump visited a military cemetery were McCain is buried - saying Trumps visit was a "violation" of some sorts.

No name Bertie wrote:It is going to be interesting how many Republicans, former Republicans etc are going to openly support Kamilla Harris.  

Recently the BBC headlined former VP Dick Cheney endorsing Kamilla Harris claiming that Trump is a liar, woman hater etc.  Also we had headlined John McCain's son endorsing Kamilla Harris after Trump visited a military cemetery were McCain is buried - saying Trumps visit was a "violation" of some sorts.

It wasn't the visit per se (Trump was invited to attend a 'private' memorial ceremony by the family of a Marine killed in Afghanistan). However Arlington Cemetery has rules that restrict photography and filming, and specifically exclude its use for political campaigning, and Trump's campaign team appear to have both breached these rules and when confronted about this by a member of staff at Arlington become abusive and (by some reports) violent.

Good polls for Harris in North Carolina. Two polls, including Quinnipiac, have given her a 3% lead in the state, though another polling company has Trump up by 1%.

North Carolina is an increasingly interesting state. Expected to be reasonably comfortable for the Republicans, it's now becoming very tight, indeed FiveThirtyEight has Harris now ahead in the state, and it may be the case that NC is more likely to go blue than Arizona or Georgia, something that was previously close to unthinkable.

Quinnipiac, in the same poll, put Trump 3% up in Georgia.

The debate is tonight.

Will there be three televised debates as per tradition. With Biden I heard there was only going to be one debate because of Bidens mental and physical condition?

Strange that there was a Trump - Biden debate even before Biden was officially nominated at the Democrat National Congress. What was all that about? It seems that things are being made up on the fly.

There have been talks of other debates, but nothing concrete, so this might be the only one between Trump-Harris.

There is a VP debate on October 1st.

I think only 1 scheduled for Trump Harris as far as I know.

For those in UK it's on at 02:00 BST tomorrow morning. I don't think I'll be staying up for it!

Not entirely sure how Biden steps down because he's barely cognitive but Trump can ramble on about people eating dogs

Just saw some "highlights". Trump took the bait it seems and went all deranged. Harris wins debate according to most.

Harris ran rings round him. If Biden was unelectable because he stumbled over occasional words and feet , what can be made of Trump's rambling non-responsive replies ? He was always prone to spouting garbage - but while it once might have been taken as "tactical" it now looks increasingly like someone in the early stages of dementia.

Which probably won't bother his rusted on fans. But he's surely stuffed anyway now because Taylor Swift has endorsed Harris

Hard to see how last night did anything to broaden Trump's appeal.

I think it was a reasonably good night for Harris, but not a great one. Everyone already knows about Trump, so opinions won't have changed much, if at all, on him.

But Harris isn't as well known, and this was the best opportunity for her to present herself to the American people. And she did well, but not amazingly well. She wasted some moments on attacking Trump, which is a waste because these attacks rarely seem to work/stick, but overall she articulated her own vision quite well. Some notable points:

At the end of the night, debate watchers reported split opinions of Harris: 45% said they view her favorably, and 44% unfavorably. That’s an improvement from before the debate, when 39% of the same voters said they viewed her favorably. Debate watchers’ views of Trump, meanwhile, shifted little – 39% rated him favorably and 51% unfavorably following the debate, similar to his numbers among the same voters before he took the stage.

Among voters who watched the debate and identify as political independents, Harris’ favorability rose to 48% after the debate, up from just 30% before.

Identical shares of debate watchers, 54%, said that they had at least some confidence in Harris’ and Trump’s respective abilities to lead the country, with 36% saying they had a lot of confidence in Trump and 32% that they had a lot of confidence in Harris. In June, just 14% who tuned in for the presidential debate between Trump and Biden expressed a lot of confidence in Biden’s ability to lead.

Following the latest debate, voters who tuned in were closely divided over which candidate better understands the problems facing people like them, with 44% saying Harris does and 40% picking Trump. That marks a shift in Harris’ favor from prior to the debate, when 43% said Trump had a better understanding of their problems while 39% said Harris did. They gave Harris a 9-point advantage on protecting democracy and a 21-point advantage on whom they trusted to handle the issue of abortion.

An 82% majority of registered voters who watched Tuesday’s debate say it didn’t affect their choice for president. Another 14% said it made them reconsider but didn’t change their minds, with 4% saying it changed their minds about whom to vote for. Debate watchers who supported Trump prior to Tuesday night were more likely than those who supported Harris to say they were wavering following the debate, 23% to 12%.

So that's good for Harris, however on the negative side:

But voters who tuned in gave Trump a 20-point advantage over Harris after the debate on handling the economy, 55% to 35% – a margin that’s slightly wider than his pre-debate edge.

Debate watchers also gave Trump a 23-point advantage over Harris when it came to whom they trusted to handle immigration and a 6-point edge on handling the role of commander in chief.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/11/politics/election-poll-trump-harris-debate/index.html

Overall, perhaps a small nudge to Harris, but not a great change. But, in a really tight race like this, it could be pivotal. Trump continues to lead on the most important issue, the economy, and Harris doesn't seem to be able to make any headway towards adjusting this.

Just under eight weeks to go...

For now, it's just satisfying to know that Trump will wake up fuming at having been mocked publicly (the dig about his rallies will sting like f*ck), and will spend the day complaining to anyone within earshot and posting nonsense on Truth Social / X. This will include 'reTruths' of bogus comfort-polls that say he won the debate by a mile.

Trump didn't do as bad as is being written in the Trump hating media.....90% of the media wants Harris to win..

The problem is the guy can't help himself.........Just stick to facts like "Gas" was a dollar cheaper when he was President....The "Standard of living" was higher.....No "Wars".."Inflation" was lower...Less "Illegal immigrants" and finish by saying "If you think you are better off now vote for the VP"....Simple enough..

But he hasn't got the intellect or the discipline....and he doesn't deserve to win...

Too old...Too bitter....As an ancient philosopher wrote about the return of future Emperor Tiberius from exile..."All who return to rule from banishment rule bloodily !!!"

Election is over.......I don't see a path for him.....Nothing will change...From now until the end of time you can vote against who you hate less..."He's a racist.....She's a Communist"......Gun Lobby and the Pharmaceutical industry get the candidate they want whoever wins....All politicians take money from them....

USA is a mess..........and Politicians need to take the blame......Watch Ford v Carter and watch the debates now....

UK is on the same trajectory.......Starmer's main play in five years..."If you don't get me the Tories will be back....."...Let's all run to the polls with excitement.

After all Starmer faced down his opposition over winter fuel allowance and showed strength....Forget the fact struggling elders may die....That's collateral damage and part of the game..

Personally didn't vote a few weeks ago and some people say "Brave people died to give you the right to vote !!!"..

No they died to give us a choice whether to vote for these Charlatans or not and my conscience is clear on that one...

Another alleged assassination attempt on Trump at his golf course but weapon found was an AK47 which to my very limited knowledge of guns isn't a long range gun?
One theory is this a set up by a nutjob supporter to elicit sympathy as he's losing ground to Harris.
Who knows but apparently FBI has detained suspect.

Another one, but this one didn't get as close as the previous shooter.

Very strange poll numbers coming out. Two highly respected polling organisations came out with outlier numbers...in completely different directions. ABC/Ipsos gave Harris a 4% national lead, rising to 6% with likely voters, which would almost certainly win her the EC if accurate. But AtlasIntel went completely the other way and gave Trump a 4% national lead, which would deliver him an EC landslide of such epic proportions that even Trump couldn't be hyperbolic about it.

State polls giving a mixed picture. Trump was only given a 4% lead in a rare poll from Iowa, a state he won by 8% in 2020 and 10% in 2016, so that's not good for him. But there were two polls from the key state of Michigan - one showing a tie and one showing Trump with a 1% lead.

Silver giving Trump a 59.6% chance. FiveThirtyEight giving Harris a 59.5% chance! The odds narrowly favouring Harris, she's at 4/5, with Trump evens.

Too close to call with just seven weeks left.

InsiderAdvantage and USA Today/Suffolk did some polling in Pennsylvania. InsiderAdvantage found that the Democrats were leading 5% in the Senate race in that state, and USA Today/Suffolk had a 4% lead for the Democrats in the same race.

With such similarity, they'd surely agree on the Trump/Harris battle in Pennsylvania and bring much needed clarity? Or.....not quite:

InsiderAdvantage - Trump 50%-48% Harris
USAToday/Suffolk - Trump 46%-49% Harris

Still an absolute mystery.

Good program last night on Channel 4, "Trump's Heist" about the 2020 election and how he and his supporters say it was stolen etc. Lot of interviews with his ex staff who were supporters of him but they were sensible enough to realise he lost fair and square and the deranged bunch who said he didn't, Guiliania etc. Focused on the Arizona result and how Trump and co tried to bully and intimidate election officials to give him to result.
Part 2 tonight at 21:00.

Well worth a watch.

Quinnipiac have released polls showing great news for Harris - she leads by 5% in Pennsylvania, 5% in Michigan and 1% in Wisconsin.

Quinnipiac are generally considered to be a highly reputable polling company, and the effect of these polls has nearly taken Harris to favouritism on Silver's model.

I have an issue with Quinnipiac, however, and that's the huge Democrat lean they seem to have. Their final Pennsylvania poll in 2020 had Biden winning by 7% (he won by 1.2%); their final Ohio poll in 2020 had Biden winning by 4% (he lost by 8%); Florida they had Biden winning by 5% (he lost by 3%); Georgia they overstated Biden by 7%. This Democrat lean was also present in 2016.

So, very good poll numbers for Harris from Quinnipiac, but I have some reservations about it, and it is fair to say the numbers for Pennsylvania/Michigan are a bit wider than other polling companies are finding.

Of course polls tend to lag a few days , but there generally seems to be a slow drift towards Harris. The 538 aggregator started with her as a 55/45 favourite about a week ago and has nudged up a point or so a day and now gives her a 64 % chance of winning.

Obviously there are uncertainties in how reliable polling data is in the US at the moment, as it hasn't been all that good in the last two Presidential elections. The polling companies obviously adjust their approach each time, or at least how they weight the data they collect. However I think you'd rather be in Harris' s position than Trump's at the moment. Still a long way to go though.

Congress is absolutely too close to call, and likely will stay that way until election day. The current House has a Republican majority of 9 in 438. There has been some redistricting since 2022, which may slightly favour them, but it's desperately close. And there isn't really much polling to go on. If I was forced to place a bet, I'd say the Republicans will hold on to a very small majority.

The Senate was 51-49 to the Democrats* at the last election, but a Senator elected as a Dem has left the party (although has not joined the Republicans). 1/3 of the 100 seats are up for election this time, and the split this year does not favour the Democrats, with only 11 Republican-held seats up for the election and 22 Democrats. Currently looks like the Republicans will gain 2 and possibly 3 seats, one from an Independent, one from a guy who has previously managed to maintain a Senate seat as a Democrat in Montana and possibly one in Ohio (currently a toss up).
So to keep control of the Senate, the Dems will need to win the Ohio seat and one of either Montana, Florida or Texas, none of which look easy but are all just about in range.
Of course the Senate elections in 2026 and 2028 are skewed the other way, with more Republican seats at risk. Just the nature of the 6 year cycles.

*Well, including Bernie Sanders, who isn't actually in the Democratic Party but forms part of their Caucus)

I would say that Harris is currently enjoying a post debate bounce. As we get into October, it'll be interesting to see if Trump makes the sort of gains in the final weeks that he did in 2016 and 2020. The race is currently marginal, maybe Harris a fraction ahead, which is a lot better for Trump than the last two elections have been.

There's been a wave of polls out recently. Difficult to keep track of!

The Hill/Emerson are putting up narrow leads for Trump in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, with Nevada a tie, and Harris leading in North Carolina and Michigan. That would be a confusing map, but enough to win for Trump. All polls of course in the margin of error.

That poll from Emerson puts Trump up by 1% in Wisconsin. Three other polls put Harris up by 1%, and a couple more by 2%, showing how tight it is in this state. FiveThirtyEight's tracker gives Harris a 1.8% lead in the state; RCP 1.3%.

Pennsylvania even closer. As well as the two polls mentioned in an earlier post, and the one by Emerson, the NYT/Siena have backed up Quinnipiac by showing a 4% Harris lead. But Marist and the Washington Post are showing ties in separate polls. FiveThirtyEight's tracker gives Harris a 1.5% lead in the state; RCP 1%.

Michigan is looking better for Harris, with Marist and Quinnipiac showing 5% leads, and the Morning Consult even going to a 7% lead.  FiveThirtyEight's tracker gives Harris a 2.7% lead in the state; RCP 1.7%.

Trump has the lead in Georgia, with every poll this month I think showing either a narrow lead or a practical tie. FiveThirtyEight's tracker gives Trump a 1% lead in the state; RCP 1.7%.

North Carolina is still strange and working it out is virtually guesswork! Tipp, Victory and Trafalgar all coming in with 2-3% Republican leads, but Morning Consult, SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac all going with 2-3% Democrat leads. The rest of the polls are either ties or 1% leads either way. For all the talk of Michigan or Pennsylvania being the key state, maybe it'll be North Carolina with its 16 EC votes?  FiveThirtyEight's tracker gives Trump a 0.2% lead in the state; RCP 0.1%.

Arizona hasn't been polled much. Very narrow Republican leads appears to be the trend.  FiveThirtyEight's tracker gives Trump a 0.5% lead in the state; RCP 1.6%.

Nevada, which hasn't gone Republican since 2004, is still blue, narrowly, but there's a lack of polling data, as ever, in this state.  FiveThirtyEight's tracker gives Harris a 0.7% lead in the state; RCP 0.2%.

If you were to put all of that into a map, the Democrats would win 276-262, with Trump needing to turn only one of Wisconsin/Pennsylvania/Michigan for the win. All the key states are incredibly close, though, and at this point the only one I would predict with confidence is Michigan being won by Harris, but that could easily change before November. Remains to be seen why the race is so close. Is it an accurate representation of the race? Is Trump still actually being underestimated/his opponent overestimated, as in 2016/2020, meaning Trump is cruising the race and homing in on a big win? Or are the polling companies going the other way, overestimating Trump in an effort to counteract their errors in previous elections, meaning Harris is really dominating?

And we must not ignore the potential for other states to deliver a shock result. One poll in Virginia recently only gave Harris a 2% lead.

Some good news for Trump in the sun belt. The NYT/Siena putting him five up in Arizona, four up in Georgia and two up in North Carolina.  That lead in Arizona seems a bit of an outlier for now.

But a highly respected polling organisation in Wisconsin has got Harris a 7% lead in that state, which is definitely an outlier, but might be a sign of things to come.

Redfield and Wilton finding pretty much everything to be too close to call:



Perhaps most intriguingly, Redfield find that "On the economy, voters are evenly split. Respondents in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, and Nevada now trust Harris more than Trump on the economy, while those in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin trust Trump more than Harris. Voters in Pennsylvania (45% each) are evenly split.

Continuing a trend that was evident in our previous poll, Harris is continuing to narrow Donald Trump’s long standing advantage on inflation, with voters in only three of the nine swing states (Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) now trusting Trump more than Harris on the issue, compared to five states in our previous poll. Voters in six states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Nevada) now trust Harris more than Trump on inflation. "

Trump is declining further debates, which, from his point of view, is very wise.

Six weeks to go, and voting has already begun.

I know it's comparing apples with oranges (no reference to Trump's complexion intended), but one of the big tipping points in the polls here was when Labour became more trusted than the Tories on the economy. That was such a key part of the Tories' identity with voters, and a whole load of failings in other areas were waved away because of that apparent strength. I've seen a fair few vox pops in the States where people acknowledged that Trump's a loose cannon (to put it mildly), but his perceived business acumen outweighed that for them. If that opinion of him really is slipping, then that's potentially a very big deal.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:I know it's comparing apples with oranges (no reference to Trump's complexion intended), but one of the big tipping points in the polls here was when Labour became more trusted than the Tories on the economy. That was such a key part of the Tories' identity with voters, and a whole load of failings in other areas were waved away because of that apparent strength. I've seen a fair few vox pops in the States where people acknowledged that Trump's a loose cannon (to put it mildly), but his perceived business acumen outweighed that for them. If that opinion of him really is slipping, then that's potentially a very big deal.

If he had his wits about him, Trump would offer to build more condos and golf courses in Springfield and Aurora.

And here's another thing. Public transport "For a Quarter" in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania... even New York.

And by the way....

All Aboard! Track 29!

Quinnipiac, not long after producing very favourable state polls for Harris, now find that Trump is leading the national popular vote, 48-47. CNN going the other way, 48-47 for Harris. Either one would produce, you would think, an EC win for Trump.

But...Reuters/Ipsos (well respected) weighing in with a staggering 6% lead for Harris, 50-44, and Morning Consult (a very Democrat leaning polling company) finding a 5% lead for Harris.

The polling's all over the place. They were scrambling after the 2020 fiasco, they were scrambling after Biden's collapse, they were scrambling after Biden's exit from the race, scrambling after Harris' entry...still scrambling now. What a mess.

It's a done deal.......The weary voters who are interested in this crap offering had a mentally impaired Biden to consider for 4 years or another four years of rage against the machine and infighting with the corrupt Trump...

Harris is crap and won't do diddly but she is a change....

That's all she wrote....

I wish it was a done deal. The world's a dangerous enough place as it is without someone as easily flattered / bought as Trump in the White House.

Some of the stuff he's been saying about Ukraine is is just appalling. It's a sovereign state, and he's criticising its leader for not accepting the annexation of part of it.

Trump should he win will call for Ukraine to concede territory. He'll also kowtow to Putin. Aid for Ukraine will be cut off.
He'll also go on a vendetta to settle scores with anyone he perceives to have wronged him It's a long list.

It'll be a total vengeance fest. Plus he'll enrich himself massively, openly, as he did the first time.

Must admit it is quite amusing seeing the Democrats who have spent years claiming Democracy will end if Trump wins....Suing in every marginal to try to get the Greens kicked off the ballot.

Five weeks to go then.

Arizona - Trump leads by 2% on RCP; Trump leads by 1.1% on FiveThirtyEight.

Only Bloomberg/MorningConsult (a Dem leaning polling company) have shown a Harris lead in this state recently. The rest have been small but consistent leads for Trump, with the exception of a couple which have generated wide leads e.g. NYT/Siena giving Trump a 5% advantage.

Nevada - Harris leads by 1.3% on RCP; Harris leads by 1.4% on FiveThirtyEight.

It is one of the swing states, but perhaps not that important due to its low number of EC votes. Bloomberg/MorningConsult coming out with a 6% lead for Harris, and AtlasIntel with 3%. A couple of other polls with tinier Harris leads, and only Rasmussen (a Rep leaning polling company) coming in with a Trump lead in this state.

Georgia - Trump leads by 1.4% on RCP; Trump leads by 0.7% on FiveThirtyEight.

This state has perhaps been tightening, with AtlasIntel and Bloomberg/MorningConsult putting up ties, and Fox News putting up a 2% Harris lead.  The rest of the polls, though a little less recent than those, have been consistent in seeing small Trump leads by 1%-3%.

North Carolina - Trump leads by 0.6% on RCP; Trump leads by 0.1% on FiveThirtyEight.

Perhaps the tightest state of them all, which isn't good news for Trump. AtlasIntel recently coming in with a 4% lead for Harris, supported by Bloomberg/Morning Consult's 2% lead for Harris, but elsewhere seeing mostly ties or small Trump leads.

Pennsylvania - Trump leads by 0.2% on RCP; Harris leads by 0.8% on FiveThirtyEight.

Yeah, good luck predicting this one. Harris had some good leads in this state early in the month, but the momentum seems to be with Trump now, in a small way, with a lot of statistical ties and a few Trump leads. AtlasIntel coming in with a 3% lead for Trump was very welcome news for him.

Michigan - Harris leads by 1.4% on RCP; Harris leads by 1.8% on FiveThirtyEight.

This state, which looked fairly solid for Harris a couple of weeks ago, is coming back into Trump's wheelhouse. NYT/Siena's most recent poll here has a 1% lead for Harris, and AtlasIntel shocked everyone by showing a 3% Trump lead (definitely an outlier). Those are the two most recent polls in the state. Before that, Harris seemed to have a fairly comfortable lead. We'll see if future polls follow those last two, or whether it was just a blip.

Wisconsin - Harris leads by 0.8% on RCP; Harris leads by 1.8% on FiveThirtyEight.

I mentioned a poll which put Trump in the lead in this state, and AtlasIntel followed it up with a 2% lead for Trump here. Redfield showed a tie here most recently, while RMG found a 1% Harris lead and NYT/Siena a 2% Harris lead. Another very close battle, and the tightness of it will be as uncomfortable for Harris here as NC is for Trump.

Current scores - Republicans win 281-257 with RCP's average; Democrats win 276-262 on FiveThirtyEight's average (they only disagree on Pennsylvania).

Arizona and Georgia looking good for Trump, and he's running it very close in the trio of Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin. What could be the stumbling block is North Carolina. Trump's easiest way to win is Arizona + Georgia + NC + one of Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin, but if he loses NC (and that's looking ever more likely), then he'll have to offset the loss with two of Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin or Nevada and one of Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin. And that's one of Harris' greatest advantages in this race, as it was for Biden, in that Trump's path to victory is much narrower than hers. Trump has to win four of these very close states; but Harris can get through with as little as three.

The overall polling picture for Trump at this stage is much brighter than it was 4 and 8 years ago. If he hits the same momentum in the final weeks as he did in those campaigns, he will most probably win...presuming the polling picture is accurate. If he's being overstated, it's still a tough run. If he's being understated, yet again, it's already a slam dunk.

It's been an excellent day for Trump in the polls.

Quinnipiac have shown a 6% lead for Trump in Georgia and 2% in NC. That 6% an outlier, but continuing a good record for Trump in the sun belt states.

Emerson then supported this, with a 1% lead for Trump in NC and a 3% lead in Arizona, and a tie in that most-tied of states: Pennsylvania.

InsiderAdvantage came out with 1% leads for Trump in Arizona, Nevada (surprisingly) and NC, with a tie in Georgia.

An ABC/Washington Post poll had Trump 2% ahead in NC.

Remington, a Republican-leaning polling company, found a 1% lead for Trump in Nevada and Pennsylvania, with a tie in Wisconsin, and a 2% lead in Michigan for Harris.

In better news for Harris, Fabrizio/Anzalone recorded a 2% lead for Harris in Pennsylvania, and a national poll put Harris 4% ahead.

A good day for Trump, but the likes of Georgia/Arizona/NC are really the minimum that he needs to be winning. He needs to turn at least one of that Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin trio red to get back in.

The VP debate obviously doesn't change much, but with Vance's unpopularity, I was surprised to see he edged it 51%-49% in a CNN poll. A boost to Vance's favourability ratings will be very welcome news to Trump, as that's currently a big weakness in his campaign.

Events in the Middle East are also likely helping Trump, who generally polls better in terms of foreign policy/crisis situations.

Indeed, and we know Netanyahu is very keen on a Republican victory, so let’s not be surprised if the “October Surprise” is an all-out war which would really deflate the momentum in the Harris campaign.

Derek Smalls wrote:Indeed, and we know Netanyahu is very keen on a Republican victory, so let’s not be surprised if the “October Surprise” is an all-out war which would really deflate the momentum in the Harris campaign.

Have some sympathy for Harris......Israel lobby is huge in the Party poltic of bought and sold politicians.....AIPAC gives a lot of money out and expects butt licking in return...

But there comes a time when you just have to stand up and say something isn't right...

Al Gore is probably the only Democrat in the last 60 years with the bollox......Hillary and Bill the perv wouldn't have the balls and Harris certainly hasn't.

Apparently, there is to be a media blitz by Harris, well I would be delighted if this was to be so, but suspect the same strategy will be kept in place. A lot of people are going around the bend with the Democrats' "steady as you like" approach.It won last time, obviously. But Biden was a very known quantity to the American public-they grew up with him. He won by not being the other guy.
It's a spectacularly bad approach now ,again for obvious reasons-people still don't know Harris at all and it's just possible that she might be the "woke" caricature she is painted as, for all the US public know. Sorry Truss, but the American public are still pretty uninformed and sexist -talking VERY generally-and just not being the other guy is never a good approach, people like to see a pro-active approach instead.
Ridiculous that the good people of Pennsylvania are solely responsible for keeping this reprehensible human being away from a terrifying executive power.

Derek Smalls wrote:Apparently, there is to be a media blitz by Harris, well I would be delighted if this was to be so, but suspect the same strategy will be kept in place. A lot of people are  going around the bend with the Democrats' "steady as you like" approach.It won last time, obviously. But Biden was a very known quantity to the American public-they grew up with him. He won by not being the other guy.
It's a spectacularly bad approach now ,again for obvious reasons-people still don't know Harris at all and it's just possible that she might be the "woke" caricature she is painted as, for all the US public know. Sorry Truss, but the American public are still pretty uninformed and sexist -talking VERY generally-and just not being the other guy is never a good approach, people like to see a pro-active approach instead.
Ridiculous that the good people of Pennsylvania are  solely responsible for keeping this reprehensible human being away from a terrifying executive power.

I think most Americans are either Trump or anything but......Harris is a non candidate. Said all along that Trump vs Biden was the only race where one of them could beat somebody...

Pennsylvania was one of the States in the top bracket that saw median household incomes rise under Trump.....Factor in the years after Covid has seen stall in the rate of progress......Warranted or not the buck stops at the White House for that usually.

Harris is a dead duck against anyone else but Trump...........But she will win..

The race is close because many in Downtown USA have given up and won't vote.......Can't say I blame them.

Four weeks to go.

Arizona - Trump leads by 1.4% on RCP (-0.6% for Trump from last week); Trump leads by 1.3% on FiveThirtyEight (+0.2% for Trump).

Nevada - Harris leads by 1.1% on RCP (+0.2% for Trump); Harris leads by 0.9% on FiveThirtyEight (+0.5% for Trump).

Georgia - Trump leads by 1.5% on RCP (+0.1% for Trump); Trump leads by 1.1% on FiveThirtyEight (+0.4% for Trump).

North Carolina - Trump leads by 0.6% on RCP (no change); Trump leads by 0.9% on FiveThirtyEight (+0.8% for Trump).

Pennsylvania - tie on RCP (-0.2% for Trump); Harris leads by 0.7% on FiveThirtyEight (+0.1% for Trump).

Michigan - Harris leads by 0.7% on RCP (+0.7% for Trump); Harris leads by 1.8% on FiveThirtyEight (no change).

Wisconsin - Harris leads by 0.8% on RCP (no change); Harris leads by 1.6% on FiveThirtyEight (+0.2% for Trump).

Current scores - Republicans lead 262-257 with RCP's average (Pennsylvania a dead heat); Democrats win 276-262 on FiveThirtyEight's average.
Nate Silver's model - Harris 54.7%-45.0% Trump (+0.7% for Trump since seven days ago).
FiveThirtyEight's model - Harris 55.4%-44.2% Trump.
Bet365 - Trump 4/5; Harris evens.

Not a lot of polling has happened recently, but maybe a small, very small, shift to Trump over the last week. Latest national polls generally giving Harris a 2%-3% lead, which is right in the funzone.

It remains a race that is too close to call, with not many undecided voters to shift the dial in any great way, and (presently) no major events to give things a jolt. The only thing we can say for sure is the voting population of these seven states will decide it.

I'd rather go with Lichtemann's 'keys' model. Now they're probably hard tocredibly define as solid metrics, but polling has not been reliable in so many elections.

Democrats are worried about Dr Stein the Green candidate in Michigan and Penn....Going big on Harris and Trump being genocide approvers and both States are in the Top 10 when it comes to Muslim population.....Not really a problem for Trump as the vast amount of Muslims vote Democrat ...

Democrats have already succesfully kicked Stein off the Nevada ballot which stunk considering Trump was the guy who was going to rid the US of democracy apparently.

Too late to kick her out of Michigan and Penn even though they have tried their best....Have to see whether "Trump Stooge" "American hater" or "Antisemite" can switch voters from her party in November.

Heaven forbid either main party campaigned on anything positive.

Expect Harris to win but Netanyahu isn't helping her.

Emerson, one of the highest rated polling companies, with quite a set of polling numbers:

Arizona - Trump 49-47 Harris
Georgia - Trump 49-48 Harris
Michigan - Trump 49-49 Harris
Nevada - Trump 47-48 Harris
NC - Trump 49-48 Harris
Pennsylvania - Trump 49-48 Harris
Wisconsin - Trump 49-49 Harris

Would be enough for the narrowest of Trump wins, but just goes to illustrate how outrageously close this one is.

Harris in her 60 minutes interview declared Iran the number one enemy and wouldn't rule out military action....

Just what the World needs.......Everytime Trump sends a gift she sends one back.

She is the pits but not quite as bad as Trump.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Harris in her 60 minutes interview declared Iran the number one enemy and wouldn't rule out military action....

Just what the World needs.......Everytime Trump sends a gift she sends one back.

She is the pits but not quite as bad as Trump.

It's almost as though they're itching for a scrap with Iran. And Iran.. Iran so far away...

Sending a 100 or so US personnel to northern Israel to operate some new anti-missile defence system only paves the way for worse things to come.... regardless of who wins on November 5.

Pal Joey wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Harris in her 60 minutes interview declared Iran the number one enemy and wouldn't rule out military action....

Just what the World needs.......Everytime Trump sends a gift she sends one back.

She is the pits but not quite as bad as Trump.

It's almost as though they're itching for a scrap with Iran. And Iran.. Iran so far away...

Sending a 100 or so US personnel to northern Israel to operate some new anti-missile defence system only paves the way for worse things to come.... regardless of who wins on November 5.

Excellent work, PJ. Sometimes I wish I had a photograph of you.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Pal Joey wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Harris in her 60 minutes interview declared Iran the number one enemy and wouldn't rule out military action....

Just what the World needs.......Everytime Trump sends a gift she sends one back.

She is the pits but not quite as bad as Trump.

It's almost as though they're itching for a scrap with Iran. And Iran.. Iran so far away...

Sending a 100 or so US personnel to northern Israel to operate some new anti-missile defence system only paves the way for worse things to come.... regardless of who wins on November 5.

Excellent work, PJ. Sometimes I wish I had a photograph of you.

Well played both

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Pal Joey wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Harris in her 60 minutes interview declared Iran the number one enemy and wouldn't rule out military action....

Just what the World needs.......Everytime Trump sends a gift she sends one back.

She is the pits but not quite as bad as Trump.

It's almost as though they're itching for a scrap with Iran. And Iran.. Iran so far away...

Sending a 100 or so US personnel to northern Israel to operate some new anti-missile defence system only paves the way for worse things to come.... regardless of who wins on November 5.

Excellent work, PJ. Sometimes I wish I had a photograph of you.

Well played both

Oh flock off you gulls! You know we can't post photos (that's against house rules) even if I had procured one for you.

Three weeks to go:

Arizona - Trump leads by 1.0% on RCP (-0.4% for Trump from last week); Trump leads by 1.8% on FiveThirtyEight (+0.5% for Trump).

Nevada - Trump leads by 0.2% on RCP (+1.3% for Trump); Harris leads by 0.6% on FiveThirtyEight (+0.3% for Trump).

Georgia - Trump leads by 0.5% on RCP (-1% for Trump); Trump leads by 1.0% on FiveThirtyEight (-0.1% for Trump).

North Carolina - Trump leads by 0.5% on RCP (-0.1% for Trump); Trump leads by 0.9% on FiveThirtyEight (no change).

Pennsylvania - Trump leads by 0.3% on RCP (+0.3% for Trump); Harris leads by 0.7% on FiveThirtyEight (no change).

Michigan - Trump leads by 0.9% on RCP (+1.6% for Trump); Harris leads by 0.8% on FiveThirtyEight (+1% for Trump).

Wisconsin - Harris leads by 0.3% on RCP (+0.5% for Trump); Harris leads by 0.6% on FiveThirtyEight (+1% for Trump).

Current scores - Republicans win 302-236 with RCP's average; Democrats win 276-262 on FiveThirtyEight's average.
Nate Silver's model - Harris 51%-48.7% Trump (+3.7% for Trump since six days ago).
FiveThirtyEight's model - Harris 53%-46% Trump (+1.8% for Trump since six days ago).
Bet365 - Trump 8/11; Harris 11/10.

The sunbelt has had hardly any polling in the last week and so they remain stubbornly close. Too close for Trump's liking, close enough for Harris to have optimism.

Perhaps the biggest turn up over the last week has been in Michigan, which might be the state that gets Trump over the line. Over the last week, Emerson revealed a tie here, Quinnipiac came in with a 4% Trump lead, and InsiderAdvantage with a 2% Trump lead, hence the relatively sizable gains for Trump listed above in Michigan. WSJ with a 2% Harris lead, also.

Wisconsin is also showing signs of tightening, with four narrow Republican leads in the last six polls in this state, the other two being a tie and a 2% Democrat lead.

Trump may end up not needing Pennsylvania if Michigan/Wisconsin go his way. In Pennsylvania, NYT/Siena gave Harris a 4% lead, which was welcome news for her. Other polls have shown narrow leads for Trump - 2% with Redfield, 2% with Insider, 1% with Emerson and 1% with TIPP. TIPP may have revealed something interesting, because their polling showed Harris with a 4% lead with registered voters, but in terms of likely voters Trump was 1% ahead. Motivation might be key.

Overall, a decent week for Trump in the polling, as he maybe starts to build late momentum again, but the race is still a coin toss....if the polling's correct!