2024 US Presidential Election

First topic message reminder :

Thought we should have a thread on it, as Ron DeSantis is expected to launch his campaign on Twitter this evening. He's trailing Trump by a big margin for the Republican nomination, around 37% behind in the polling average. But there's a lot of time for things to change and the oddsmakers only have DeSantis as a 2/1 outsider, against Trump's 2/5. Doesn't appear to be any other serious contenders for the Republican nomination at this point.

Biden is expected to run again and defend his crown, but his advancing age (he's into his 80s now) and low approval ratings means he may be vulnerable to a Democratic challenger. The most likely challenger seems to be Robert Kennedy Jr. who has already announced his candidacy and has polled as high as 21%, but that was still 49% behind Biden. As such, Biden's a 2/9 clear favourite to be the Democrat nominee in 2024, but if he drops out for whatever reason then the race is wide open.

Only 531 days until the election...

Trump's problem is that Harris and Georgia are being under sold.....She is black and is a shoo in there...

Which almost certainly means Trump will have to carry Penn...Mich and Ohio...and I can't see it....He may take Michigan....

It was always a problem if one of Biden or Trump dropped out for the one that was left in the race..Trump exacerbated his problem by picking a complete Lemon VP running mate who has values that come from back water redneckville during the slavery era...

Over for me.......Harris will be a disaster but she is better than Trump....The bar isn't high.

Ohio should be easy for Trump to win (latest poll giving him a 10% lead). If he loses there, it's a landslide for Harris. It's not considered a battleground state at the moment.

Latest poll from NY Times/Siena is a national one, and it (surprisingly) gives Trump a 48-47 advantage in the popular vote, extending to 47-45 when the minor candidates are included. That's a tremendous poll for Trump. He can likely lose the popular vote by up to nearly 3% and still expect to win the EC, so actually winning the popular vote would virtually guarantee carrying the EC.

Harris' bounce has gone and the pressure is more on her to deliver something at the debate on Tuesday, which might be the only debate between the two.

Trump is now a 8/11 favourite, Harris 11/10. Silver's model has put Trump's chances of winning up to 61.5%. FiveThirtyEight still favouring Harris at 54.9%.

Duty281 wrote:Ohio should be easy for Trump to win (latest poll giving him a 10% lead). If he loses there, it's a landslide for Harris. It's not considered a battleground state at the moment.

Latest poll from NY Times/Siena is a national one, and it (surprisingly) gives Trump a 48-47 advantage in the popular vote, extending to 47-45 when the minor candidates are included. That's a tremendous poll for Trump. He can likely lose the popular vote by up to nearly 3% and still expect to win the EC, so actually winning the popular vote would virtually guarantee carrying the EC.

Harris' bounce has gone and the pressure is more on her to deliver something at the debate on Tuesday, which might be the only debate between the two.

Trump is now a 8/11 favourite, Harris 11/10. Silver's model has put Trump's chances of winning up to 61.5%. FiveThirtyEight still favouring Harris at 54.9%.

The fact that two polls can come up with such widely varied results surely tells you how much faith anyone should put in any of them...

alfie wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Ohio should be easy for Trump to win (latest poll giving him a 10% lead). If he loses there, it's a landslide for Harris. It's not considered a battleground state at the moment.

Latest poll from NY Times/Siena is a national one, and it (surprisingly) gives Trump a 48-47 advantage in the popular vote, extending to 47-45 when the minor candidates are included. That's a tremendous poll for Trump. He can likely lose the popular vote by up to nearly 3% and still expect to win the EC, so actually winning the popular vote would virtually guarantee carrying the EC.

Harris' bounce has gone and the pressure is more on her to deliver something at the debate on Tuesday, which might be the only debate between the two.

Trump is now a 8/11 favourite, Harris 11/10. Silver's model has put Trump's chances of winning up to 61.5%. FiveThirtyEight still favouring Harris at 54.9%.

The fact that two polls can come up with such widely varied results surely tells you how much faith anyone should put in any of them...

I mean, it's not that wild a difference in the two models.

Silver's model is the more established one. It's the old FiveThirtyEight one that was highly credited in 2016/2020, but was guilty of underestimating Trump's chances in both elections. FiveThirtyEight's new model is on stonier ground after appearing to drastically overestimate Biden's hopes this year, before getting pulled and then tinkered with.

The only thing we can be sure of is that it's a very tight election, just like last time.

It is going to be interesting how many Republicans, former Republicans etc are going to openly support Kamilla Harris.  

Recently the BBC headlined former VP Dick Cheney endorsing Kamilla Harris claiming that Trump is a liar, woman hater etc.  Also we had headlined John McCain's son endorsing Kamilla Harris after Trump visited a military cemetery were McCain is buried - saying Trumps visit was a "violation" of some sorts.

No name Bertie wrote:It is going to be interesting how many Republicans, former Republicans etc are going to openly support Kamilla Harris.  

Recently the BBC headlined former VP Dick Cheney endorsing Kamilla Harris claiming that Trump is a liar, woman hater etc.  Also we had headlined John McCain's son endorsing Kamilla Harris after Trump visited a military cemetery were McCain is buried - saying Trumps visit was a "violation" of some sorts.

It wasn't the visit per se (Trump was invited to attend a 'private' memorial ceremony by the family of a Marine killed in Afghanistan). However Arlington Cemetery has rules that restrict photography and filming, and specifically exclude its use for political campaigning, and Trump's campaign team appear to have both breached these rules and when confronted about this by a member of staff at Arlington become abusive and (by some reports) violent.

Good polls for Harris in North Carolina. Two polls, including Quinnipiac, have given her a 3% lead in the state, though another polling company has Trump up by 1%.

North Carolina is an increasingly interesting state. Expected to be reasonably comfortable for the Republicans, it's now becoming very tight, indeed FiveThirtyEight has Harris now ahead in the state, and it may be the case that NC is more likely to go blue than Arizona or Georgia, something that was previously close to unthinkable.

Quinnipiac, in the same poll, put Trump 3% up in Georgia.

The debate is tonight.

Will there be three televised debates as per tradition. With Biden I heard there was only going to be one debate because of Bidens mental and physical condition?

Strange that there was a Trump - Biden debate even before Biden was officially nominated at the Democrat National Congress. What was all that about? It seems that things are being made up on the fly.

There have been talks of other debates, but nothing concrete, so this might be the only one between Trump-Harris.

There is a VP debate on October 1st.

I think only 1 scheduled for Trump Harris as far as I know.

For those in UK it's on at 02:00 BST tomorrow morning. I don't think I'll be staying up for it!

Not entirely sure how Biden steps down because he's barely cognitive but Trump can ramble on about people eating dogs

Just saw some "highlights". Trump took the bait it seems and went all deranged. Harris wins debate according to most.

Harris ran rings round him. If Biden was unelectable because he stumbled over occasional words and feet , what can be made of Trump's rambling non-responsive replies ? He was always prone to spouting garbage - but while it once might have been taken as "tactical" it now looks increasingly like someone in the early stages of dementia.

Which probably won't bother his rusted on fans. But he's surely stuffed anyway now because Taylor Swift has endorsed Harris

Hard to see how last night did anything to broaden Trump's appeal.

I think it was a reasonably good night for Harris, but not a great one. Everyone already knows about Trump, so opinions won't have changed much, if at all, on him.

But Harris isn't as well known, and this was the best opportunity for her to present herself to the American people. And she did well, but not amazingly well. She wasted some moments on attacking Trump, which is a waste because these attacks rarely seem to work/stick, but overall she articulated her own vision quite well. Some notable points:

At the end of the night, debate watchers reported split opinions of Harris: 45% said they view her favorably, and 44% unfavorably. That’s an improvement from before the debate, when 39% of the same voters said they viewed her favorably. Debate watchers’ views of Trump, meanwhile, shifted little – 39% rated him favorably and 51% unfavorably following the debate, similar to his numbers among the same voters before he took the stage.

Among voters who watched the debate and identify as political independents, Harris’ favorability rose to 48% after the debate, up from just 30% before.

Identical shares of debate watchers, 54%, said that they had at least some confidence in Harris’ and Trump’s respective abilities to lead the country, with 36% saying they had a lot of confidence in Trump and 32% that they had a lot of confidence in Harris. In June, just 14% who tuned in for the presidential debate between Trump and Biden expressed a lot of confidence in Biden’s ability to lead.

Following the latest debate, voters who tuned in were closely divided over which candidate better understands the problems facing people like them, with 44% saying Harris does and 40% picking Trump. That marks a shift in Harris’ favor from prior to the debate, when 43% said Trump had a better understanding of their problems while 39% said Harris did. They gave Harris a 9-point advantage on protecting democracy and a 21-point advantage on whom they trusted to handle the issue of abortion.

An 82% majority of registered voters who watched Tuesday’s debate say it didn’t affect their choice for president. Another 14% said it made them reconsider but didn’t change their minds, with 4% saying it changed their minds about whom to vote for. Debate watchers who supported Trump prior to Tuesday night were more likely than those who supported Harris to say they were wavering following the debate, 23% to 12%.

So that's good for Harris, however on the negative side:

But voters who tuned in gave Trump a 20-point advantage over Harris after the debate on handling the economy, 55% to 35% – a margin that’s slightly wider than his pre-debate edge.

Debate watchers also gave Trump a 23-point advantage over Harris when it came to whom they trusted to handle immigration and a 6-point edge on handling the role of commander in chief.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/11/politics/election-poll-trump-harris-debate/index.html

Overall, perhaps a small nudge to Harris, but not a great change. But, in a really tight race like this, it could be pivotal. Trump continues to lead on the most important issue, the economy, and Harris doesn't seem to be able to make any headway towards adjusting this.

Just under eight weeks to go...

For now, it's just satisfying to know that Trump will wake up fuming at having been mocked publicly (the dig about his rallies will sting like f*ck), and will spend the day complaining to anyone within earshot and posting nonsense on Truth Social / X. This will include 'reTruths' of bogus comfort-polls that say he won the debate by a mile.

Trump didn't do as bad as is being written in the Trump hating media.....90% of the media wants Harris to win..

The problem is the guy can't help himself.........Just stick to facts like "Gas" was a dollar cheaper when he was President....The "Standard of living" was higher.....No "Wars".."Inflation" was lower...Less "Illegal immigrants" and finish by saying "If you think you are better off now vote for the VP"....Simple enough..

But he hasn't got the intellect or the discipline....and he doesn't deserve to win...

Too old...Too bitter....As an ancient philosopher wrote about the return of future Emperor Tiberius from exile..."All who return to rule from banishment rule bloodily !!!"

Election is over.......I don't see a path for him.....Nothing will change...From now until the end of time you can vote against who you hate less..."He's a racist.....She's a Communist"......Gun Lobby and the Pharmaceutical industry get the candidate they want whoever wins....All politicians take money from them....

USA is a mess..........and Politicians need to take the blame......Watch Ford v Carter and watch the debates now....

UK is on the same trajectory.......Starmer's main play in five years..."If you don't get me the Tories will be back....."...Let's all run to the polls with excitement.

After all Starmer faced down his opposition over winter fuel allowance and showed strength....Forget the fact struggling elders may die....That's collateral damage and part of the game..

Personally didn't vote a few weeks ago and some people say "Brave people died to give you the right to vote !!!"..

No they died to give us a choice whether to vote for these Charlatans or not and my conscience is clear on that one...

Another alleged assassination attempt on Trump at his golf course but weapon found was an AK47 which to my very limited knowledge of guns isn't a long range gun?
One theory is this a set up by a nutjob supporter to elicit sympathy as he's losing ground to Harris.
Who knows but apparently FBI has detained suspect.

Another one, but this one didn't get as close as the previous shooter.

Very strange poll numbers coming out. Two highly respected polling organisations came out with outlier numbers...in completely different directions. ABC/Ipsos gave Harris a 4% national lead, rising to 6% with likely voters, which would almost certainly win her the EC if accurate. But AtlasIntel went completely the other way and gave Trump a 4% national lead, which would deliver him an EC landslide of such epic proportions that even Trump couldn't be hyperbolic about it.

State polls giving a mixed picture. Trump was only given a 4% lead in a rare poll from Iowa, a state he won by 8% in 2020 and 10% in 2016, so that's not good for him. But there were two polls from the key state of Michigan - one showing a tie and one showing Trump with a 1% lead.

Silver giving Trump a 59.6% chance. FiveThirtyEight giving Harris a 59.5% chance! The odds narrowly favouring Harris, she's at 4/5, with Trump evens.

Too close to call with just seven weeks left.