2024 US Presidential Election

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Thought we should have a thread on it, as Ron DeSantis is expected to launch his campaign on Twitter this evening. He's trailing Trump by a big margin for the Republican nomination, around 37% behind in the polling average. But there's a lot of time for things to change and the oddsmakers only have DeSantis as a 2/1 outsider, against Trump's 2/5. Doesn't appear to be any other serious contenders for the Republican nomination at this point.

Biden is expected to run again and defend his crown, but his advancing age (he's into his 80s now) and low approval ratings means he may be vulnerable to a Democratic challenger. The most likely challenger seems to be Robert Kennedy Jr. who has already announced his candidacy and has polled as high as 21%, but that was still 49% behind Biden. As such, Biden's a 2/9 clear favourite to be the Democrat nominee in 2024, but if he drops out for whatever reason then the race is wide open.

Only 531 days until the election...

alfie wrote:Not sure it will actually give him any lasting boost.  His fans didn't need this to worship the ground he walks on , although some of the less enthusiastic may become keener.  But those who can't stand him won't switch as a sympathy vote and whether it would encourage those who were not committed either way to support him is open to question. Time will tell.

Agree with this. Also Trump's 'unity' thing won't last a week, never mind until November.

Democrats really need someone other than Biden to run though. Trump only looks young and healthy when juxtaposed with Biden. He's old an unwell himself, quite possibly more unwell than Biden is.

Hillary Clinton was the ideal opponent for Trump in 2016, and this version of Biden is his ideal opponent in 2024. Democrats must see that, surely?

Jack Black and Kyle Gass were on tour in Australia with their band Tenacious D. On Sunday Kyle Gass was celebrating his birthday and was asked to make a wish - he wished that the next assassination attempt on Donald Trump's life be successful. Following that statement Jack Black has cancelled the rest of the bands world tour.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0dmx4p4m0lo

Election as ever will be won on the undecided vote
So, given what's happened in last week a lot could opt for Trump

I'd agree with that if the election was next month. There's ample time between now and November for Trump to squander whatever sympathy / goodwill is currently coming his way from floating voters.

I say this because I'm as sure as I can be that he'll remain a short-tempered, petty, vindictive individual; but I wonder if it's possible that this incident really will change him as a person? Stranger things have happened!

It'll be a strange campaign for Trump because he's the frontrunner this time. Just needs to play it nice and cool, dodge the bullets, and he wins. Might even win the popular vote this time, RCP are putting him 4% ahead on the polling average.

Every day that passes makes it less likely that Biden will be replaced. Every day that passes makes it more likely that, in the event of a replacement, it'll be Kamala. She's even worse than Biden.

110 days to go...

Pressure building to intolerable levels for Biden, with Schiff and Axelrod pulling the plug.

Then the mainstream media specifically circulated that Biden would drop out if a 'medical condition' emerged, about five hours ago.

Now Biden's tested positive for Covid.

The final curtain?

Regarding the COVID announcement, is it genuine or an excuse I wonder. Anyway, video of him walking to and up steps to plane he looks decrepit.

Trump leading in the last two polls in Virginia. One by Emerson putting him up by 5%.

It hasn't gone red since Dubya in 2004. Get Biden gone, Democrats.

Trump will give his first speech since being shot at, later today.

Duty281 wrote:Pressure building to intolerable levels for Biden, with Schiff and Axelrod pulling the plug.

Then the mainstream media specifically circulated that Biden would drop out if a 'medical condition' emerged, about five hours ago.

Now Biden's tested positive for Covid.

The final curtain?

There's no such thing as a virus!
(I'm spending too much time on Tw*tter).

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Pressure building to intolerable levels for Biden, with Schiff and Axelrod pulling the plug.

Then the mainstream media specifically circulated that Biden would drop out if a 'medical condition' emerged, about five hours ago.

Now Biden's tested positive for Covid.

The final curtain?

There's no such thing as a virus!
(I'm spending too much time on Tw*tter).

There's no such as Tw*tter!

If the Democrats are smart then they'll announce Biden is dropping out of the race five minutes before Trump goes up to speak.

Duty281 wrote:If the Democrats are smart then they'll announce Biden is dropping out of the race five minutes before Trump goes up to speak.

1. Biden doesn't have to go unless he wants to....
2. That would have looked more desperate than smart...

jill Biden seems to be the problem..

When Starmer's Labour won by a landslide he actually received a smaller number of votes than Corbyn's Labour in 2019. Starmer won because the Tory voter decided not to vote or decided not to vote Tory. There was a collapse in the Tory vote.

For Biden to lose would require Biden voters not to vote. In 2020 Biden had 81,300,000 votes - a record number of votes. Prior to that the record number of votes to win a Presidential Election was 69,500,000 votes. For Biden to win he just needs to maintain his vote.

Given that the younger voter tends to be more anti-Trump and pro-Democrat than the older voter, we might expect Biden to better the 81,300,000 votes he received in 2020, everything else being equal.

No name Bertie wrote:When Starmer's Labour won by a landslide he actually received a smaller number of votes than Corbyn's Labour in 2019.  Starmer won because the Tory voter decided not to vote or decided not to vote Tory.  There was a collapse in the Tory vote.  

For Biden to lose would require Biden voters not to vote.  In 2020 Biden had 81,300,000 votes - a record number of votes.  Prior to that the record number of votes to win a Presidential Election was 69,500,000 votes.  For Biden to win he just needs to maintain his vote.  

Given that the younger voter tends to be more anti-Trump and pro-Democrat than the older voter,  we might expect Biden to better the 81,300,000 votes he received in 2020, everything else being equal.

All depends which States those voters are in though...

Contingencies:

Republican:
a) If Trump had have been assassinated then the Republicans would have been free to chose anybody except they would have likely had to chose Nikki Haley because she came second in the primaries.

b) If Trump is now assassinated or incapacitated in anyway the Republicans would have to promote JD Vance as their Presidential Candidate, given he has now been announced as Trumps running mate - with Trump the current official Republican Presidential Candidate.

Democrat:
Biden won the primaries with Uncommitted finishing second.   The Democrat Party Convention will be held August 19–22.   The presumptive Candidates are President Joe Biden (incumbent) and running mate Kamala Harris (incumbent).  

Biden cannot be ruled out as Candidate for current mental health reasons (all else being equal) because that would be politically unsustainable.  If he is ruled out now he should have been ruled out as active President when it was first known or diagnosed and Kamala Harris should been instated as President immediately - as of yesterday.  

Biden cannot suddenly resign from his candidature for the upcoming election because it would widely be seen as him being forced to resign against his wishes given what he has already said about his determination to run for re-election (all else being equal).

If there was a sudden deterioration in Biden's health or he had a stroke that did worsen his current mental health condition then he could be official medically ruled out for health reasons - but then so would he be ruled out as the current active President and Kamala Harris would become the new President in the interim.

If Biden did have a sudden deterioration in health but not enough to be medically ruled out, but enough for him to resign his candidature then that would be acceptable.  He would remain as President until the next election and hand over date.  However, if that happened surely Kamala Harris would then be the only politically sustainable choice for the Democrats to nominate - unless she too for some reason decided to resign her candidature - but then I don't think that would be politically possible either.

No name Bertie wrote:When Starmer's Labour won by a landslide he actually received a smaller number of votes than Corbyn's Labour in 2019.  Starmer won because the Tory voter decided not to vote or decided not to vote Tory.  There was a collapse in the Tory vote.  

For Biden to lose would require Biden voters not to vote.  In 2020 Biden had 81,300,000 votes - a record number of votes.  Prior to that the record number of votes to win a Presidential Election was 69,500,000 votes.  For Biden to win he just needs to maintain his vote.  

Given that the younger voter tends to be more anti-Trump and pro-Democrat than the older voter,  we might expect Biden to better the 81,300,000 votes he received in 2020, everything else being equal.

Think there are more variables at play..........Like these perhaps...

Gasoline prices under Trump average $2.50...........under Biden average $3.60

Interest rates under Trump 3.8%............under Biden 5.3%..

Illegal immigration was lower under Trump........House prices........Average $320,000 under Trump.....Average $420,000 under Biden......Not easy for young people to get on the ladder.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:... Gasoline prices under Trump average $2.50...........under Biden average $3.60

Interest rates under Trump 3.8%............under Biden 5.3%..

... House prices........Average $320,000 under Trump.....Average $420,000 under Biden......Not easy for young people to get on the ladder.

Are these not examples of "that ship has sailed" - apart from the Interest Rates.  

Wouldnt surprise me at all if Biden and his team will use Covid (whether he actually has it or not) as an excuse to get him off the ticket. Say something like “because of the effects of the virus his health had worsened and he feels he can no longer give the American people his best.” Or words to that effect.

Sounds like Biden is reaching the acceptance stage and an announcement will come this weekend.

Over 30 Democrat congress members have told him to step aside. A slow trickle is building to an avalanche.

Samo wrote:Wouldnt surprise me at all if Biden and his team will use Covid (whether he actually has it or not) as an excuse to get him off the ticket.

Still no real evidence that Biden and his team want to do anything other than keep going. The rumours seem to be coming from others trying to speak it into existence so far.

Lowlandbrit wrote:

Samo wrote:Wouldnt surprise me at all if Biden and his team will use Covid (whether he actually has it or not) as an excuse to get him off the ticket.

Still no real evidence that Biden and his team want to do anything other than keep going. The rumours seem to be coming from others trying to speak it into existence so far.

They're not exactly going to come out and say "Well he's considering stepping back but he's not too sure."

One thing that does seem strange is that there seems to be a number of Senators that are aging and showing some signs of senility and people seem to be accepting of that. I am sure the same sort of thing happens with Senators - if they are considered no longer compos mentis - then they can be impeached / removed and a new election called.

The person that springs to mind is Mitch McConnell- the current leader of the Republican Party aged 82. He has been recorded appearing to suffer from complete brain and body freezes - a reporter asks him a question and he appears to go into an unresponsive freeze before being shuffled off by aides. Maybe these are called having a senior moment.

One can argue that being a President or Senator is extremely tiring - constantly in demand, constantly having to face reporters, moving about the state, country - they could often find themselves "out on their feet". Tiredness can often be misdiagnosed as senility - they are still in control of their mind - but they are speaking and acting when tired / exhausted.

I wonder whether the apparent issues being seen with Joe Biden - he was as sharp as a tack in his earlier days- he has been in political power for over 51 years (Senator, Vice President, President) - applies to many others of the currently serving Political Class.

That surely also includes the British House of Lords. Currently there doesn't seem to be any maximum age limit, although outside of politics employers can fire employees if they have reached retirement age I believe.

French radio reported Biden has withdrawn his candidature. He will focus on being President until the handover period in January.

I think the only surprise is its taken this long.

Most interesting thing is he didn't endorse Kamala as his successor, suggesting there could be an open process to deciding the nominee.

They've dodged Biden, now they need to dodge Kamala.

"Conspiracy theorists" have long suggested that Biden will be shoved aside with Gavin Newsom being the Democrat Choice as Presidential Candidate.   This would have to over-ride Kamala Harris.

ps As previously mentioned all the Democrats have to do is to maintain the number of votes they gained under Biden-Harris in 2020.  With the removal of Biden then maybe even Kamala Harris will secure those votes given the bounce the Democrats will get following Biden's withdrawal.  These voters could also be boosted by the idea of electing a woman (and a woman of diversity) as President for the first time in line with modern liberalisms ideas of Diversity, Equity and Inclusion.  

In 2020 people voted for Biden-Harris to keep Trump out and the same campaign can work for a 2024 Harris + running mate (Newsom?) campaign.

The Democrat narrative for the 2024 election is already out there: Trump convicted felon, danger to the world because won't support Ukraine against Putin, misogynist, Islamophobe, racist, r***ist (sexual abuser), threat to democracy - tried to storm Senate Jan 06 etc, forms a league of dictators with Putin, China, N. Korea  - this was essentially the Observers editorial last Sunday.

BBC has just reported that Biden has endorsed Kamala Harris as Democrat Presidential Candidate.     I think that means that she will be a shoo-in for the Democrat Presidential Nominee. Then she just needs to nominate a strong running mate.

Yep, just saw that Biden has endorsed Kamala, so looks like she'll get the endorsement.

Democrats still likely cooked then, but we'll get a clearer picture soon.

With Biden ducking out does that mean the Democrats have dodged a bullet?

No way Trump debates Harris. She'll eat him alive.

Looks like the Democrats are rallying around Kamala, to ensure a swift and orderly transition to her becoming the nominee.

She's trailing by 226-312 on the current polling, but that's based on limited polling data thus far. Even if she is behind, she'll actually be able to campaign and land a few punches of her own and possibly reverse the deficit.

Biden needs to resign the Presidency straight away, but the mainstream media don't care about that. He isn't fit enough to lead an election campaign, but he supposedly is fit enough to lead a country. Yeah, right.

Theres less actual physical work in being President than running an election campaign. He wont need to travel as much, less speaking engagements, less ralleys etc etc. He can stay in the White House leading cabinet meetings and focusing on running the country for the next few months.

Big fan of watching Farage on LBC this morning calling Harris a “black African woman”.

Samo wrote:Big fan of watching Farage on LBC this morning calling Harris a “black African woman”.

Roughly 50% accurate - woman ia correct.
Black? She's part Jamaican and part Indian (Asia, not native American), so you could argue half black (for whatever difference that makes)
African - Born in the US to the above parents, so no, clearly not African.

Actually, her parents were both very impressive people, achieving substantial academic status.

I presume he meant African American, although I'm a little confused on whether she is or not. Wikipedia says she is African American, so I guess it's right.

In what context was he mentioning her race?

Her ethnic background may put some off - but also maybe attract others. Trump fans are immovable anyway so what she needs to do is persuade enough uncommitted voters that she is a seriously better choice than Trump - and worth getting off their bums to turn out and vote accordingly. She doesn't have to prove she's the new Kennedy - just an acceptable choice and not someone who can be demonised as too old and infirm to run the country. With Biden out of the picture the age card now works against Trump.

Months to go so wide open.

I think she'll get a polling bounce over the next couple of weeks, before things settle back to normal.

Kamala definitely has a better chance than Biden - who was completely finished and Trump would have probably wound up getting 350+ on the EC - but she does suffer from bad approval ratings herself. Her net approval on 538 is about 7% better than Biden's, but only 0.2% better than Trump. It's -12% overall.

The two main hurdles for Kamala are going to be immigration and being tied to Biden. She's seen as being heavily linked to the failures at the Mexico border, and that's with immigration being seen as a big issue in the election. Biden's administration was/is viewed as deeply unpopular, and there's obviously no escaping that with her being the VP and trying to prop Biden up.

Her 2020 run for the Democrat nomination was a complete mess. She struggled to define policy positions, spend money well, and her public speaking ability is inconsistent. Hopefully for her sake she'll have learned from that with about 100 days until polling day.

Kamala is the candidate because the Democrats have made a hash of the whole business. They should have known from 2020 that Biden was going to be a one term President, then they could have had a proper nomination process, rather than this shambles.

Tough position to inherit, not impossible, but unlikely for Kamala.

superflyweight wrote:In what context was he mentioning her race?  

Something along the lines of "She's probably going to be the candidate because I dont think the democrats would get rid of a black, African woman."

Link.

Duty281 wrote:... Kamala definitely has a better chance than Biden ...   Her 2020 run for the Democrat nomination was a complete mess. She struggled to define policy positions.... Hopefully for her sake she'll have learned from that with about 100 days until polling day....

Don't you mean hopefully for the American people's sake?

Resume:
Vice President of the United States: Jan. 20, 2021 to date.
United States Senator for California: Jan. 3, 2017 – Jan. 18, 2021
32nd Attorney General of California: Jan. 3, 2011 – Jan. 3, 2017
27th District Attorney of San Francisco: Jan. 8, 2004 – Jan. 3, 2011

Some people are commenting on how the American People learnt about Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 Presidential Election process.  

Up until then he had been saying he was determined to continue to run for re-election.  

Then Sunday mid-day ish American time there was a message sent to his twitter-X account saying he was withdrawing his candidature to focus on seeing out the remaining months of his term of office as President.  

Then about 30 minutes or so later another message was sent to his twitter-X account saying he was endorsing Kamala Harris.  

It is being said that the non-video nature of that announcement - no televised speech, not in front of reporters - is odd.

There is a cult of personalities going on.   Rather than focusing on the Political Office and what politicians can do for the people in terms of policies etc - the conversation seems to be all about personalities - what is best for the politician.  E.g. "hopefully for her sake", "Harris will eat Trump alive in the Debates", "She is an historical figure - first woman to ....", "First Diverse Woman to hold the office for ..."

We seem to have long ago stopped talking about policies, planned policies, competency of our Politicians and made a soap opera out of our politicians and candidates.   I suspect it is the people just following on from what they read in the papers and hear on the television and elsewhere.

No name Bertie wrote:There is a cult of personalities going on.   Rather than focusing on the Political Office and what politicians can do for the people in terms of policies etc - the conversation seems to be all about personalities - what is best for the politician.  E.g. "hopefully for her sake", "Harris will eat Trump alive in the Debates", "She is an historical figure - first woman to ....", "First Diverse Woman to hold the office for ..."

We seem to have long ago stopped talking about policies, planned policies, competency of our Politicians and made a soap opera out of our politicians and candidates.   I suspect it is the people just following on from what they read in the papers and hear on the television and elsewhere.

Arguably since JFK vs Nixon.

Samo wrote:

superflyweight wrote:In what context was he mentioning her race?  

Something along the lines of "She's probably going to be the candidate because I dont think the democrats would get rid of a black, African woman."

Link.

Thanks. Guess it's not as bad as it could have been and you have to hope he meant African American, but for someone who is always having to deny he's a racist, it might make sense not talk about race.

superflyweight wrote:

Samo wrote:

superflyweight wrote:In what context was he mentioning her race?  

Something along the lines of "She's probably going to be the candidate because I dont think the democrats would get rid of a black, African woman."

Link.

Thanks.  Guess it's not as bad as it could have been and you have to hope he meant African American, but for someone who is always having to deny he's a racist, it might make sense not talk about race.  

Theres also the underlying implication that she's a token nomination.

“I don’t know who said it, or where it came from, perhaps the Radical Left, but I never discussed, or thought of, Jamie Dimon or Larry Fink for Secretary of the Treasury,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

It was Trump himself who said he would consider Dimon for the role during a June 25 interview with Bloomberg Businessweek. Asked by Bloomberg if he would consider Dimon for Treasury Secretary in a Trump administration, he said: “He is somebody that I would consider, sure.”

Biden-esque.

Trump *is* the radical left confirmed.

He seems to have lost some right wing votes by praising a Muslim police officer who was killed in the line of duty (no pun intended)
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/u-lost-my-vote-trump-s-fans-respond-to-his-latest-statement-with-criticism-and-bigotry/ar-BB1qxGl5?ocid=msedgntp&pc=ACTS&cvid=ee1857da34f847c7b06feee5b0bca1f4&ei=31

Why no polls?

Because it's early days in the polling between Trump and Harris, everything hasn't yet calibrated, the data's a bit limited, and it's all a bit of a mess at the moment.

RCP's averages put Trump ahead against Harris in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (by a whisker), so that would be enough for Trump to triumph.

Harris is ahead in Michigan, thanks to a huge outlier poll which put her 11% ahead from Bloomberg/Morning Consult, which was just as wild as when they put Trump ahead by double digits in Nevada, as well as Minnesota. She's probably enjoying a polling bounce at the moment.

Trump leads in the popular vote average, narrowly.

An odd poll from Oregon only gives Harris a 5% lead, a state that was won by the blues by 16% in 2020.