Ulster 2014/2015, Part 3

First topic message reminder :

Continue to discuss Ulsters lack of back row options and season in general

geoff998rugby wrote:Diack and Wilson should not be playing they need a break

Pienaer should not play he is still not 100%

We will get stuffed in France regardless
Send the reserves to France and hit Leicester with everything we've got

There is no lack of motivation and commitment in this squad - there is a lot of confusion and anxiety though.
Ruderless coaching is the cause

+1 and an amen to that Geoff.

The Toulon game is meaningless but if we are to mount any kind of assault on the Pro12 then there's no better boot-camp than playing at Ravenhillspan against the Leicester Tigers.

clivemcl wrote:In fairness though, in terms of mentality - what would help the team better? A surprise fronting up against Treviso in February? Or a surprise fronting up against Toulon or Leicester?

There should be no surprise in the team fronting up - that should be a given no matter who we are playing against.

In fairness, I think they are fronting up physically, just tactically we are poor - caught between hoofing the ball in the air and looking for miracle offloads and not executing either particularly well. Defence and disciplline have dropped off badly and the set piece isn't giving a decent platform with the personel changes from last year.

Basically every aspect has deteriorated from the past few seasons and it's showing in the results.

Because of that confidence is down and it's a vicious circle - expectations were justifiably high, even with the off season fiascos and now players are doubting themselves and having to reevaluate the seasons goals to lesser ones, which is difficult for top players like Bowe, Pienaar, Best etc who are desperate for silverware.

There's definitely a few players going through the motions but generally wouldn't fault the commitment or effort - if anything some guys are trying too hard.

Quotes from Rory

"We went off on our own agendas at times to try and score that try instead of doing what we had done well in the first half"
"We tried to do a little bit too much on our own."

Is he saying that some players backed themselves at wrong times, or took on too much? Or is he saying that more collectively, the team, stopped enforcing the game plan they were given?

Yet another concussion for Luke Marshall at training during the week....

Tuohy out for 7/8weeks
McCloskey 6/8 weeks
Herbst to miss Toulon

Henderson and Williams back in the next week or two.

rodders wrote:

clivemcl wrote:In fairness though, in terms of mentality - what would help the team better? A surprise fronting up against Treviso in February? Or a surprise fronting up against Toulon or Leicester?

There should be no surprise in the team fronting up - that should be a given no matter who we are playing against.

In fairness, I think they are fronting up physically, just tactically we are poor - caught between hoofing the ball in the air and looking for miracle offloads and not executing either particularly well. Defence and disciplline have dropped off badly and the set piece isn't giving a decent platform with the personel changes from last year.

Basically every aspect has deteriorated from the past few seasons and it's showing in the results.

Because of that confidence is down and it's a vicious circle - expectations were justifiably high, even with the off season fiascos and now players are doubting themselves and having to reevaluate the seasons goals to lesser ones, which is difficult for top players like Bowe, Pienaar, Best etc who are desperate for silverware.

There's definitely a few players going through the motions but generally wouldn't fault the commitment or effort -  if anything some guys are trying too hard.

In defence we are not fronting up physically at all. Too many missed tackles or very weak tackles.

Whats Tuohy out with?

Ulster missed 20 tackles out of 146 attempts, but 14 of those were in the backline. It's also interesting that Cave who is feted for his defence missed 2 out of 7 when Ulster were running at them yet Payne made 5 out of 5 when Treviso were applying all the pressure.

It's also interesting that Cave missed 3 from 9 tackles against Leinster and 3 from 13 against Connacht. Over those three games Cave made 22 tackles and missed 8 - missing 27% of his attempted tackles. By comparison Olding attempted 33 and missed 3 - a miss ratio of 9%, yet Cave is seen as the rock of defence!

Equally Ulster have conceded 8,11,7 penalties in the last three games - which isn't supporting the notion that discipline has gone to pot?

carpet baboon wrote:Whats Tuohy out with?

Thumb ligament injury.

8117 penalties does seem like a lot

On Luke Marshall, anyone get a horrible feeling this could be it? I hope not but it seems to be far to often.

Carpet Baboon - you are the owner of my new favourite user name on these boards.

It's a real concern about Marshall.

George Carlin wrote:Carpet Baboon - you are the owner of my new favourite user name on these boards.

Why thank you. I shall wear the badge with pride

Notch wrote:It's a real concern about Marshall.

How many times in the last 12 months? 4? 5? It can't be good for him. Look at that kiwi fella played for England can't remember his name. His story on concussion is pretty horrific

Yep, carpet baboon is right up there with dorothy mantooth, cracking name

The Luke Marshall situation is very worrying indeed. Apart from the return to fitness protocols are there any guidelines as to when a player is told enough is enough and his general health is at great risk?

At some point a doctor will tell him enough is enough surely? As much as I want him to play having a long healthy life is a lot more important

The technology is getting better all the time:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/club/11324385/Saracens-take-fight-against-concussion-to-new-level.html

Hopefully Marshall isn't too late.

The Great Aukster wrote:Ulster missed 20 tackles out of 146 attempts, but 14 of those were in the backline. It's also interesting that Cave who is feted for his defence missed 2 out of 7 when Ulster were running at them yet Payne made 5 out of 5 when Treviso were applying all the pressure.

It's also interesting that Cave missed 3 from 9 tackles against Leinster and 3 from 13 against Connacht. Over those three games Cave made 22 tackles and missed 8 - missing 27% of his attempted tackles. By comparison Olding attempted 33 and missed 3 - a miss ratio of 9%, yet Cave is seen as the rock of defence!

Equally Ulster have conceded 8,11,7 penalties in the last three games - which isn't supporting the notion that discipline has gone to pot?

Treviso scored more tries when Payne was on the pitch than Cave
Payne made zero passes in his debut for Ireland

We can all play with figures
The key point is Cave organises our defence - other younger players rely on him for that, Payne does not provide the same direction.

Also stats generally must be taken with a big pinch of sale.
A players flying out of the line in the opponents 22 trying to make a tackle to put them under pressure and just failing is a world of difference from a player being rolled over 5 yards from their own line

Not disputing any of that Geoff. Just pointing out that Cave isn't infallible defensively as some would argue. Treviso did score a try while he was on the pitch that emanated from a missed tackle by Cave. Darren was also on the pitch when Ulster conceded tries to Leinster, and Connacht, Ospreys scored four, Munster two...

For someone who is the arch organiser of the defence Ulster sure have been leaking a lot of tries with him on the pitch.

OTOH maybe the tries that are being scored against Ulster have nothing to do with the 13 shirt?

The Great Aukster wrote:Treviso did score a try while he was on the pitch that emanated from a missed tackle by Cave.

How far back in play are you going to find that - no missed tackle by Cave played any part in the move for the try.

Ulster defence is the 2nd best in the league this year and was 2nd best last year - Cave has been key in that.

No one saying he is infallible . I myself have described him as just short of test class.
Straw man

Geoff - I didn't say you said he was infallible.

However there is a perception from some here (and a lot on t'other forum), that Cave going off precipitated the breakdown in defence, and that Payne coming on was far worse defensively. The evidence doesn't support that. For example you said Treviso scored more tries when Payne was on the pitch than Cave, that is a perception that is wrong.

I had always thought that it was Cave's lack of pace that kept him from Test honours, until Brian O'Driscoll's piece on him before the Scarlets ERC game. He pointed out that it was his defence that was the question mark at that level and that made me curious regarding his record there.

IIRC the missed tackle in the Treviso game gave them the field position for Hayward's kick through for Christie's try. Anyone can miss a tackle yet Cave is missing them consistently in the last number of games compared to his centre partner. Organising the defence to be in the right place is great but the players still have to make their tackles and Cave has been missing too many so he is not walking the talk.

Toulon hit with flu bug

Toulon face a disrupted build-up to this weekend's clash with Ulster with a number of members of their backline laid low by the flu

More at -
http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3822_9645587,00.html

Maybe we will lose by less

The Great Aukster wrote:

However there is a perception from some here (and a lot on t'other forum), that Cave going off precipitated the breakdown in defence, and that Payne coming on was far worse defensively. The evidence doesn't support that. For example you said Treviso scored more tries when Payne was on the pitch than Cave, that is a perception that is wrong.

The defence did get worse in the last quarter - Cave left the pitch in the 52nd minute.
You are correct I should have said more points not more tries

As an aside Cave had a bug was not even fully fit

Among us Ulster supports it seams we have gotten an little polarised and are turning on certain players, those that think the Payne at 13 experiment is player/IRFU directed and should be ended, and those that don't think Cave is up to this level and put question marks beside him.

There are people running Cave down and there are people running Payne down (at 13) and others even running both down.

I suppose its what happens when we are not playing at the level expected, people sort of turn on players and there seams to be a bit of animosity directed at these two players, and I honestly think its not on, we should never turn on Ulster players - even McComish - I wouldn't be surprised if certain supporters booed these players the way they run them down and that I never want to see.

Myself I think both are good 13's and the competation is healthy, there isn't any point in running either down, our problem isn't 13, its the backrow. I honestly believe that if it was better then we wouldn't even be having this discussion, we would be all happy supporters.

The Great Aukster wrote:Geoff - I didn't say you said he was infallible.

However there is a perception from some here (and a lot on t'other forum), that Cave going off precipitated the breakdown in defence, and that Payne coming on was far worse defensively. The evidence doesn't support that. For example you said Treviso scored more tries when Payne was on the pitch than Cave, that is a perception that is wrong.

I had always thought that it was Cave's lack of pace that kept him from Test honours, until Brian O'Driscoll's piece on him before the Scarlets ERC game. He pointed out that it was his defence that was the question mark at that level and that made me curious regarding his record there.

IIRC the missed tackle in the Treviso game gave them the field position for Hayward's kick through for Christie's try. Anyone can miss a tackle yet Cave is missing them consistently in the last number of games compared to his centre partner. Organising the defence to be in the right place is great but the players still have to make their tackles and Cave has been missing too many so he is not walking the talk.

It is MUCH harder to defend at 13 than at 12. It is the hardest position to defend from on the pitch actually, to make every tackle at 13 is an excellent statistic, one that even the likes of Conrad Smith or Brian O'Driscoll would not often make.

EDIT: Of course, one has to remember that BOD and Smith both play at a much higher level than Cave.

Kingshu wrote:Among us Ulster supports it seams we have gotten an little polarised and are turning on certain players, those that think the Payne at 13 experiment is player/IRFU directed and should be ended, and those that don't think Cave is up to this level and put question marks beside him.

There are people running Cave down and there are people running Payne down (at 13) and others even running both down.

I suppose its what happens when we are not playing at the level expected, people sort of turn on players and there seams to be a bit of animosity directed at these two players, and I honestly think its not on, we should never turn on Ulster players - even McComish - I wouldn't be surprised if certain supporters booed these players the way they run them down and that I never want to see.

Myself I think both are good 13's and the competation is healthy, there isn't any point in running either down, our problem isn't 13, its the backrow. I honestly believe that if it was better then we wouldn't even be having this discussion, we would be all happy supporters.

I agree, Kingshu, for the most part, but I would say that Payne moved to 13 has caused a lot of disruption, even though the lack of cover for the backrow is the bigger issue, along with below par coaching.

I don't blame Payne at all for any of this. He's ambitious, and desperately wants to play for Ireland. It's just that although Payne playing 13 for Ulster might be good for Ireland, it's proved counter productive for Ulster so far, even if not the sole reason for our woes this season.

Kingshu wrote:Among us Ulster supports it seams we have gotten an little polarised and are turning on certain players, those that think the Payne at 13 experiment is player/IRFU directed and should be ended, and those that don't think Cave is up to this level and put question marks beside him.

There are people running Cave down and there are people running Payne down (at 13) and others even running both down.

I suppose its what happens when we are not playing at the level expected, people sort of turn on players and there seams to be a bit of animosity directed at these two players, and I honestly think its not on, we should never turn on Ulster players - even McComish - I wouldn't be surprised if certain supporters booed these players the way they run them down and that I never want to see.

Myself I think both are good 13's and the competation is healthy, there isn't any point in running either down, our problem isn't 13, its the backrow. I honestly believe that if it was better then we wouldn't even be having this discussion, we would be all happy supporters.

Well I certainly am not running down Payne I simple think Payne has yet to show he is the better 13 (I know some do not agree)
What I cannot believe is in question is that Ulster are at their best when Payne is at 15 and Cave is at 13.
That is in large part because Payne is so good at 15  

I want what is best for Ulster as a team not what is best for a certain players World Cup prospects so Payne should be wearing the 15 shirt.
It is doubly annoying as it meant we signed a decent but unspectacular backs player when we were in dire need of backrower - that is also crippling the team.

When you add to that a NIQ backrower who was mistakenly given a contract extension,it leaves us in a terrible situation of post World Cup being able to sign no NIQ players (when some top players are likely to be available) when we have 2 the team could do without.
Absolutely crazy

It allright lads Toulon have a flu bug we'll walk it  

Im reality though probably a few sniffles

geoff998rugby wrote:It allright lads Toulon have a flu bug we'll walk it  

Im reality though probably a few sniffles

On reading that last night my initial reation was 'oh that's good, perhaps they won't beat us by as much now'

geoff999rugby wrote:When you add to that a NIQ backrower who was mistakenly given a contract extension,it leaves us in a terrible situation of post World Cup being able to sign no NIQ players (when some top players are likely to be available) when we have 2 the team could do without.
Absolutely crazy

The single most depressing but true paragraph in 'Part3' so far...

Surely at least one buy out is necessary. If we can't buy him out I at least sincerely hope Williams can regain the form that had us excited about him when he comes back. Certainly you'd expect him to start ahead of Wilson these days...

150th appearance for Cave this weekend. Whatever about him deserving a contract right now, he's been a loyal and integral servant to Ulster!

Rory_Gallagher wrote:
It is MUCH harder to defend at 13 than at 12. It is the hardest position to defend from on the pitch actually, to make every tackle at 13 is an excellent statistic

13 is difficult to defend from a decision making point of view - not in terms of making tackles - if the stats show missed tackles then it means the player has attempted to tackle the correct player i.e. the one with the ball - but failed to execute it, so missed tackle stats aren't mitigated by playing 13 any more than any other position.

In terms of successfully exectuting tackles wing and fullback are most vulnerable to missing one on one tackles, given the space they have to cover but centres need to be making 90% plus one on one tackles, otherwise they are liability.

rodders wrote: if the stats show missed tackles then it means the player has attempted to tackle the correct player i.e. the one with the ball -  but failed to execute it

But the circumstances are not taken into consideration - all missed tackles are not equal which why all stats should be taken with a large pinch of salt

geoff998rugby wrote:

rodders wrote: if the stats show missed tackles then it means the player has attempted to tackle the correct player i.e. the one with the ball -  but failed to execute it

But the circumstances are not taken into consideration - all missed tackles are not equal which why all stats should be taken with a large pinch of salt

Yes you have to take the context but by any standards the stats quoted by Aukster are pretty awful.

If your midfield misses that many tackles then there is something badly wrong - regardless if that is the system or the individuals. Ultimately the player can't miss the tackle unless they attempt it, so have to take most of the responsibility.

Enough already. You would think Cave was the only player in the squad worthy of scrutiny right now. Everybody is below par. The question isn't about who should be in or out as a result. The question should be - what has changed since these group of players were rightfully knocking on the door of Ireland squads in past seasons.

With McCloskey injured and Marshall's future uncertain, I don't think we really need to be sinking the boot in to any of our centers.

Cave may not be test standard, but we know he CAN BE european standard on his day. I want to know why he and others are not producing these performances they've shown themselves capable of in the past.

Also, yet again might I remind people he was pretty ill. Somebody said you could see him puking just before he was subbed off. I didn't see it (thankfully).

clivemcl wrote:Enough already. You would think Cave was the only player in the squad worthy of scrutiny right now.

Hes the only one, where there are viable alternatives.

Other areas where we have problems - like the back row, and perhaps fly half at times, we don't have options and the front 5 picks itself when fit - so yes scrutiny should be on Cave as the selection at 13 is probably the most contentious issue in the side this season.

rodders wrote:

clivemcl wrote:Enough already. You would think Cave was the only player in the squad worthy of scrutiny right now.

Hes the only one, where there are viable alternatives.

Other areas where we have problems - like the back row, and perhaps fly half at times, we don't have options and the front 5 picks itself when fit - so yes scrutiny should be on Cave as the selection at 13 is probably the most contentious issue in the side this season.

I don't think it's anywhere near the top of the list for causes of our faltering season though do you? The way it's being debated here you would think it was key. It very much is not. The lack of a settled backline may be a factor I'll give you that. But with our 12s competing for the prize of most injury prone, what can you do.

Is Ludik a better 15 than Cave is a 13? We know where Payne plays best.

It's the most contentious issue because our best fullback has been switched to outside centre, and as a consequence an NIQ replacement signed up. This in turn meant that we lost out on signing a much more needed backrow player. This is the real contentious issue. Not the ability of Cave.

(15-9): J Payne; L Ludik, D Cave, S Olding, M Allen, P Jackson, R Pienaar; (1-8): A Warwick, R Herring, B Ross, A O’Connor, F Van der Merwe, C Ross, M McComish, R Wilson (Captain); Replacements (16-23): J Andrew, C Black, D Fitzpatrick, L Stevenson, R Diack, P Marshall, I Humphreys, M Heaney.

Exactly, so why is nobody talking about Ludiks ability? We have to weigh up the combos.

Its 15 Payne/13 Cave versus 15 Ludik/13 Payne.

So whilst debating the ability of Payne at 13, we need to question the standard of our 15 while he's playing 13.

We (mostly) all agree that it was bad business. But it is what it is. Which combo will win us more games though?

Has Ludik impressed? It's also slightly annoying that we are using an NIQ spot on somebody who could have been a project if we hadn't already used up our project spot. I half wonder if Ulster were trying to get IRFU to let us have two...

Probably close to being as weak as it could be given registration and injuries

Hold on to your tin hats this is going to be ugly

Payne at 15  

rodders wrote:

clivemcl wrote:Enough already. You would think Cave was the only player in the squad worthy of scrutiny right now.

Hes the only one, where there are viable alternatives.

Other areas where we have problems - like the back row, and perhaps fly half at times, we don't have options and the front 5 picks itself when fit - so yes scrutiny should be on Cave as the selection at 13 is probably the most contentious issue in the side this season.

We dont have options in the backrow because we signed a 15 rather than a backrower to accomodate Paynes international dreams - that is the whole point

geoff998rugby wrote:

rodders wrote:

clivemcl wrote:Enough already. You would think Cave was the only player in the squad worthy of scrutiny right now.

Hes the only one, where there are viable alternatives.

Other areas where we have problems - like the back row, and perhaps fly half at times, we don't have options and the front 5 picks itself when fit - so yes scrutiny should be on Cave as the selection at 13 is probably the most contentious issue in the side this season.

We dont have options in the backrow because we signed a 15 rather than a backrower to accomodate Paynes international dreams - that is the whole point

I'm well aware. I guess I wondered why you would be debating something that can't be undone. Back to my point. What's you summary of the combos. Which 13/15 combo will win more games?


Also, the chat of a buy-out. How likely is that? ANd how likely would it be that we would buy out Ludik rather than Williams?

That back row... every time there's a breakdown we'll be looking through our fingers

clivemcl wrote:

geoff998rugby wrote:

rodders wrote:

clivemcl wrote:Enough already. You would think Cave was the only player in the squad worthy of scrutiny right now.

Hes the only one, where there are viable alternatives.

Other areas where we have problems - like the back row, and perhaps fly half at times, we don't have options and the front 5 picks itself when fit - so yes scrutiny should be on Cave as the selection at 13 is probably the most contentious issue in the side this season.

We dont have options in the backrow because we signed a 15 rather than a backrower to accomodate Paynes international dreams - that is the whole point

I'm well aware. I guess I wondered why you would be debating something that can't be undone. Back to my point. What's you summary of the combos. Which 13/15 combo will win more games?


Also, the chat of a buy-out. How likely is that? ANd how likely would it be that we would buy out Ludik rather than Williams?

Best combo is Payne 15 , Cave 13 - nothing else comes remotely close and that is largely because Payne is such a good 15.

Buy outs??? forget it

I tell you what get down to the bookies they are offering evens on Toulon +15

Absolute steal

Notch wrote:That back row... every time there's a breakdown we'll be looking through our fingers

Dont worry Notch with that backrow and no Best and no Black we won't have anyone at the breakdown.

Question will our 11 to 15 ever actually see the ball - debate

Just noticed both Marshall and Heaney on bench along with Humph...

We are a few backline injury subs away from a 100 niller  


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAUY1J8KizU

Players registered and fit not selected

LH: Murphy
Hooker: Best
TH: Ryan
Lock: Donnan, McComb
SH: Shanahan
Wing: Bowe, Gilroy


So basically we have given Best, Bowe, Gilroy a rest and put Diack on the bench
Why not go the whole hog and rest Pienaer as well - that I dont get

You could say Pienaar isn't 100% and needs rested, but equally you could say that he missed a lot of the season and needs gametime to get back to full form or fitness. Don't know which it is, but a part of our troubles has been not being able to put Pienaar and Jackson out together so getting that partnership gametime together is helpful.

I think that if we have the ball we'll certainly see 11 to 15 get it, we'll be putting it through the hands given we have little to lose whether that is effective or not. But we have to win it first. If Toulon can get a steady stream of penalties at the scrum and the ruck- and thats certainly likely- we'll be doing a lot of defending, and the defence has been poor. Equally when we have the ball we have no-one in that team who can really make an impact as a ball carrier and therefore its hard to see us generating much momentum in attack...

It's hard to see this team living with them.

Put £5 on toulon +21.5 at 13/8, its like buying money.

I though we'd rest Pienaar as well, but I know in the Football Champions League there is a competition rule that , each team playing in Europe’s elite club competition MUST ‘field their strongest team’ until elimination.

I'd be sure that the same rule would have been written into the Champions cup.

So we can't put out a very very weak side, we have to be able to argue that it was the strongest available, with an eye on the Tigers game also, if questioned to avoid any fines and such like.

Therefore I think this is the safest team we can put out. Strong enough to avoid penelties, and still resting players to concentrate on the League.