Ireland Rugby World Cup Thread continuation: Flight of the Keith Earls

[Marshes]

First topic message reminder :

So the chat continues without letup as Ireland prepare for the first group game in a couple of days. At the behest of benevolent overlord Carlin, the discussion has be moved to the smoking room.

Group Stages
IRELAND v CANADA at Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Saturday 19th September 2015 – Kick Off: 2:30pm - https://www.606v2.com/t60533-ireland-v-canada-19-september

IRELAND v ROMANIA at Wembley Stadium, London
Sunday 27th September 2015 – Kick Off: 4:45pm

IRELAND v ITALY at Olympic Stadium, London
Sunday 4th October 2015 – Kick Off: 4:45pm

FRANCE v IRELAND at Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Sunday 11th October 2015 – Kick Off: 4:45pm

QF: TBC

SF: TBC

F: Saturday 31st October - Kick Off: 4:00pm

Open-top bus parade in Dublin with POC and Michael D on stilts holding the Trophy: TBC

Open sores from the last thread include:
- Do Ireland have a plan B or attack? And is Joe holding back all the best for the latter stages?
- Are Ireland on a downward turn following two disappointing warm-up matches against Wales and England?
- Payne or Earls at Outside Centre?
- Is POC over the the hill or the reason for back to back 6N titles?
- Is a semi final the minimum acceptable expectation for the fans?
- Was Schmidt right to leave our Andrew Trimble?
- Is the backrow imbalanced? Could the inclusion of Henry or Henderson make it more than the sum of its parts?

Have at it.

[profitius]

I meant the RWC Kunu but see my mistake there

I am really interested in actually understanding why people think that Schmidt has brought more to Ireland than previous coaches.

Under EOS, I believe that Ireland had the best backline in recent memory.
Under Kidney (early days) Ireland was incredibly solid and had some outstanding set plays.

For the record, I believe Schmidt did extremely well to solidify the team when he took over and drilled the basic into them very we but what has he brought tactically to Ireland?

Schmidt has brought consistency and won 2 tournaments out of 2. EOS never won anything and his teams under performed dramatically during the 07 world cup. Kidney had a great start winning the grand slam but it was downhill from there.

[kunu]

To be blunt, he's brought an ability to win stuff. Kidney's win ratio was something like 52%. His set plays were great though - Tommy Bowe vs Wales will live long in the memory. O Sullivan made Ireland look good, but we had Drico at his world beating best at that point, and even so we never won anything.

Gordon D'arcy makes a good point about the changes professional rugby has gone through since O Sullivan's days. Larger, sharper and better athletes are involved with rugby these days, there's no space anymore. Line breaks are far harder to come by now than they were back in the mid 00's. I'm very sure Schmidt would have done a serious job with Ireland in O Sullivan's time. I'd suggest international rugby in '05 is comparable to Euro rugby in 2011/2012. Anyone who watched Leinster at all during those seasons saw what Schmidt can do for a team's attack. These days, international rugby just doesn't allow for that sort of thing. You need a Basteraud, or a Nonu to bash around a bit.

[eirebilly]

But under EOS, Ireland had the best backline moves I can remember. He was an excellent backs coach. The RWC07 was a disaster, I agree but people should not forget the good he did.

Kidney, the last 2 years were awful but his first few years in charge were excellent. The team evolved very much under him but then stagnated. It must also not be forgotten what he brought.

Schmidt has brought a level of consistency but I honestly feel he is being made out to be something a lot better than what he is by some on here. Its as if he is incapable of making mistakes. Its easy to judge old coaches after their reign ends but who is to say Schmidt wont end up the same? What if Ireland go out at the 1/4 final stage, would people still love Joe so much?

[kunu]

Kidney's first year was great. In his second year we lost to Scotland in the 6ns. EOS didn't win anything. He should be remembered fondly, but not TOO fondly. We shouldn't celebrate mediocrity (you may remember how many Triple Crown DVDs were floating around in the naughties, it was mortifying). Schmidt has won back to back six nations, and has done nothing else bar that. People have absolutely no reason not to be excited by him!

[eirebilly]

Gordon D'arcy makes a good point about the changes professional rugby has gone through since O Sullivan's days. Larger, sharper and better athletes are involved with rugby these days, there's no space anymore. Line breaks are far harder to come by now than they were back in the mid 00's.

That's an excellent point Kunu but I would have said that the mid 00's there were already big centres bashing around, especially in the SH rugby. For me, I think that the real smaller players were finishing their careers at the end of the 90's. I remember looking at Tim Horan and Jason Little for Australia and thinking that they were huge but compared to now, they are tiny.

[eirebilly]

The first 6N Ireland won under Schmidt was excellent. The second (I know this sounds weird) was no way near as impressive. Ireland could have finished 4th just as easily as I believe Ireland had lucky escapes against France and England. The displays in winning this years 6N were poor Irish displays in my opinion and he has not improved the team going into the RWC judging by the warm-up matches.

Again I ask all these people cheering Joe as the best ever, how will you feel about Joe if Ireland show the same displays in the RWC and go out at the 1/4final stage?

[eirebilly]

For the record, I truly want Ireland to do well in the RWC.

I was thinking this morning about the tragic loss of Nevin Spence and how good he could have become. I remember desperately wanting him in the last RWC squad.

[kunu]

We'll agree to disagree regarding this years 6n's so! I'd ask you to remember that our grand slam was also all about fine margins! We were a kick away from losing against Wales, Drico forced his way over vs England (the dodgy Toby Flood/Andy Goode england) and we won by a point. We beat Scotland by 7 points. We finished with a +48 PD. This year we finished at +63, which included a loss. Fine margins are what it's all about. The trick is getting your team to come out on top!

Of course my opinion will change if we lose in a QF or to France. Most people's will.

[kunu]

That's not to say I won't view Schmidt as our most successful coach if we lost a QF. He will still have the best winning % in Ireland's history, and two 6 nations titles. It would act as more of a reality check I'd imagine.

[GunsGerms]

The first 6N Ireland won under Schmidt was excellent. The second (I know this sounds weird) was no way near as impressive. Ireland could have finished 4th just as easily as I believe Ireland had lucky escapes against France and England. The displays in winning this years 6N were poor Irish displays in my opinion and he has not improved the team going into the RWC judging by the warm-up matches.

Again I ask all these people cheering Joe as the best ever, how will you feel about Joe if Ireland show the same displays in the RWC and go out at the 1/4final stage?

England, Wales, Scotland and France had all improved a lot in this years 6 nations so to win it for a second time in a row is a ridiculously good achievement.

Your negativity all stems for the fact that Schmidt is a former Leinster coach and that there are only 6 Munster players in the squad. You come across quite bitter.

[eirebilly]

I know how close the GS was and it really could have been worse, absolutely. I really am not saying I don't like Schmidt, I think that he is a good coach but I simply object to people claiming he is the best Ireland have had and that he has made Ireland look far more impressive that years gone by and I think that is wrong.

I am just a negative old mucksavage

[kunu]

I've got to get back to work fellas. Good day to you all

[eirebilly]

Your negativity all stems for the fact that Schmidt is a former Leinster coach and that there are only 6 Munster players in the squad. You come across quite bitter.

That has absolutely nothing to do with it, when have I ever brought provincial bias to the debate?

[GunsGerms]

Its pretty obvious. You are from Munster, you cant help yourself.

[Notch]

It's silly to attribute all disagreement to what province someone comes from. People are perfectly capable of having very different opinions regardless of what team they support.

[Marshes]

The Independent seems to think they have the team: http://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/world-cup/rugby-world-cup-joe-schmidt-to-include-iain-henderson-in-strong-team-against-canada-31533675.html

1) J McGrath
2) R Best
3) M Ross
4) I Henderson
5) P O'Connell (capt)
6) P O'Mahony
7) S O'Brien
8) J Heaslip
9) C Murray
10) J Sexton
11 K Earls
12) R Henshaw
13) J Payne
14) D Kearney
15) R Kearney

Zebo and Healy to be involved from the bench, Tommy Bowe missing out.

[eirebilly]

The only thing obvious here is your inability to debate. You can only resort to provincial mudslinging when you have constructive comments to make, good luck with that

[eirebilly]

Bit harsh on Bowe to be fair, I really felt he needed a game against a team like Canada to get himself back into form. Still feel that Bowe will be important come the big matches.

I love the idea of Henderson playing next to POC and it actually has the feeling that, Henshaw aside, this could be Irelands first 15.

[ME-109]

People forget with EOS that in four of his years in charge Ireland won 4 games out of five. In 06 and 07 he lost on points difference. In the other two years he lost out to England and a very good French team. Fast forward to 14/15. Joe has won two 6ns on points difference. There but for the grace of some deity or other.
Kidney got Ireland over the line to win the GS and the 6ns outright. First time since 82 (Tom Kiernan - best coach  Ireland ever had) - EDIT apologies forgot 85 under Mick. Plus Kidneys team won all their group games and in 2011 beating Aus away from home (first time since the tour in 79).

Joe has got us over the line in two 6ns on points difference (Great). Has organised the team to play to their strengths but to my mind the jury is still out until the WC. Where hopefully we will get to a SF (at least). Only then can we look at this discussion.

[ME-109]

Its pretty obvious. You are from Munster, you cant help yourself.

Oh dear Guns and I guess you are the epitome of impartial discussion...

[asoreleftshoulder]

The Independent seems to think they have the team: http://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/world-cup/rugby-world-cup-joe-schmidt-to-include-iain-henderson-in-strong-team-against-canada-31533675.html

1) J McGrath
2) R Best
3) M Ross
4) I Henderson
5) P O'Connell (capt)
6) P O'Mahony
7) S O'Brien
8) J Heaslip
9) C Murray
10) J Sexton
11 K Earls
12) R Henshaw
13) J Payne
14) D Kearney
15) R Kearney

Zebo and Healy to be involved from the bench, Tommy Bowe missing out.

The Irish Times has the same team but they say Henshaw has picked up a niggle in training so Fitzgerald slots in at 12.

http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rugby/international/fitzgerald-to-replace-injured-henshaw-against-canada-1.2354472

[Marshes]

Its pretty obvious. You are from Munster, you cant help yourself.

I'm not from Munster and wouldn't disagree that Ireland have looked one-dimensional on occasion against bigger opposition. Fair enough against Scotland and Italy the shackles have come off and the ball goes through the hands. But in big games its kick the leather off and smash-recycle-smash

I think Schimdt is the best coach Ireland have had, the team seem focused and we are going into a World Cup with a better set of players at his disposal than any other coach has had. He can vary the game plan depending on the opposition BETWEEN games. Are they well-drilled? Very much so. Are there some clever set piece plays that we will see? I imagine plenty. But the question that still hangs in the air is can Ireland vary the game against their peers when either Plan A isn't working or injury forces a change? That remains to be seen on the evidence.

Given how strong Ireland have been in the 6N and Autumns results wise under Schimdt we only have a few examples of this: England 6N 2014, Wales 6N 2015, and the last two warmup games (I can't remember enough about the Australia AI that was lost!). Even in those games we have been close, although I would say on all counts decidedly second-best

In those games I mentioned Ireland's kicking game came up against determined opposition either in Brown et al or Halfpenny et al, while the forwards also were not getting the upper hand. A change of plan was what was required, yet Ireland persevered with a disadvantaged game. I thought the most obvious example of this was Wales this year, where despite getting into positions with players out wide, the forwards continued charging into a red wall. Against England in the warm-up was when it became a bit worrying, as the team looked bereft of ideas. Really the score in Twickenham could and should have been much worse.

I don't want to come off as anti-Joe, I saw him at Dublin Airport a few months back and sheepishly thanked him for some fantastic days for fans in the last two years. I'm genuinely optimistic about the chances of making a semi-final as well.

But I think it is a very legitimate concern based on the evidence that Plan A not working or come up against a team currently willing to play more rugby than Ireland are could be the end of the road.

[Marshes]

The Independent seems to think they have the team: http://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/world-cup/rugby-world-cup-joe-schmidt-to-include-iain-henderson-in-strong-team-against-canada-31533675.html

1) J McGrath
2) R Best
3) M Ross
4) I Henderson
5) P O'Connell (capt)
6) P O'Mahony
7) S O'Brien
8) J Heaslip
9) C Murray
10) J Sexton
11 K Earls
12) R Henshaw
13) J Payne
14) D Kearney
15) R Kearney

Zebo and Healy to be involved from the bench, Tommy Bowe missing out.

The Irish Times has the same team but they say Henshaw has picked up a niggle in training so Fitzgerald slots in at 12.

http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rugby/international/fitzgerald-to-replace-injured-henshaw-against-canada-1.2354472

Huh, though Cave would have been the obvious choice there. Has Luke played much at 12 lately?

[Golden]

With this been Healys first game in ages surely he should be starting? He wont be able to play the whole game so give him the first half and replace him. If McGrath goes down in the first few minutes, could be a long afternoon for Healy.

Would like to see Madigan covering SH from the bench as well.

[eirebilly]

Huh, though Cave would have been the obvious choice there. Has Luke played much at 12 lately?

Its a really odd decision, Cave was called in to cover 12 at the expense of another 9 and at the first time he is required he is overlooked. I can only imagine that Cave may also be carrying a niggle. Don't feel very confident with Fitz at 12.

[Golden]

Maybe Henshaws injury is serious and Schmidt needs to test an alternative to Cave?

Hope it isnt

[eirebilly]

Man I hope not Golden, Henshaw is extremely crucial to Ireland.

[Golden]

Well fingers crossed, RTE speculating its just the Canada game.

Should find out soon enough.

[Notch]

One good reason for picking Fitzgerald at 12 instead of Cave is that come the big games at the end of the pool stages, Fitzgerald could be our outside back replacement on the bench. He may need to provide emergency cover in that position.

[Golden]

One good reason for picking Fitzgerald at 12 instead of Cave is that come the big games at the end of the pool stages, Fitzgerald could be our outside back replacement on the bench. He may need to provide emergency cover in that position.

If he goes well and does get the number 23 jersey its good news for Jackson. Therell be less need for Madigan if Fitz is covering 12 as well

[Notch]

What is bad news for Jackson is Madigan has constantly better place kicking stats. Massive fan of Paddy Jackson personally, think he is a better balanced 10 than Madigan, but he could be coming on needing to nail a place kick that decides whether we progress to the next round or go home early...

The fact that I have faith in Madigan to kick the goals but not to run the game from 10 and that I have faith in Jackson to run the game from 10 but not to kick the goals is the reason I'm as terrified as everyone else about what happens if Sexton goes down!

[Marshes]

What is bad news for Jackson is Madigan has constantly better place kicking stats. Massive fan of Paddy Jackson personally, think he is a better balanced 10 than Madigan, but he could be coming on needing to nail a place kick that decides whether we progress to the next round or go home early...

The fact that I have faith in Madigan to kick the goals but not to run the game from 10 and that I have faith in Jackson to run the game from 10 but not to kick the goals is the reason I'm as terrified as everyone else about what happens if Sexton goes down!

I'd be happy enough with Madigan as an option, he hasn't been too bad in green under Schimdt off the bench. But still need Sexton to stay fighting fit!

[eirebilly]

Personally, I would prefer to have a controlling Jackson with kicking issues over Madigan, I am just never that confident when Madigan plays.

[asoreleftshoulder]

Huh, though Cave would have been the obvious choice there. Has Luke played much at 12 lately?

Its a really odd decision, Cave was called in to cover 12 at the expense of another 9 and at the first time he is required he is overlooked. I can only imagine that Cave may also be carrying a niggle. Don't feel very confident with Fitz at 12.

If it's correct then the only logical reasoning I can think of is that Cave is pencilled in to start against Romania and slotting Fitz straight in causes the least disruption to preparation.

[eirebilly]

Just heard that its not actually official that Henshaw has been ruled out for Canada...

[Notch]

Well, nothing is official until 2pm. The papers have been right in the past but we'd be pretty well unified in being delighted if they were wrong on this occassion.

[Artful_Dodger]

Team being announced on the IRFU website?

[asoreleftshoulder]

The IrishRugby twitter feed should be fairly prompt with the announcement.

[kunu]

Not overly surprised that Cave would be left out. If the team were training with Henshaw all week, replacing him with Cave would be disruptive. The question isn't whether Fitz is a better 12 than Cave, but is he a better Henshaw impersonator. Cave was brought as a token centre because we had no other bona fide centres in the squad. He's there to do what D'arcy would have done- to train against the first team, and make defensive decisions that might be emulated by opposition centres, while guiding/advising our quasi centres.

[eirebilly]

Just curious here Kunu but how do you see Cave being a bigger disruption to the team than Fitz who is more of a winger? I would have thought that Cave was almost a like for like swap with Henshaw?

[Marshes]

I actually really like Cave. Runs good lines, draws in defenders, makes hard yards, good hands as well. Seen him have some poor games for Ulster too, but has certainly been more solid in the build-up that Luke has

[kunu]

If Ireland played a traditional game, then yeah I would agree. But, as has been discussed at length, they don't. We're going to play the aerial game, and Fitz is more like Henshaw in that respect. He's taller & heavier than Cave, and better in the air.

[Artful_Dodger]

If Ireland played a traditional game, then yeah I would agree. But, as has been discussed at length, they don't. We're going to play the aerial game, and Fitz is more like Henshaw in that respect. He's taller & heavier than Cave, and better in the air.

Oh cmon.....

We are talking about an inside centre here, how important is an aerial game at inside centre?  How often do we see Henshaw, D'Arcy or anyone else fielding kicks?  How likely are we to see Fitzgerald or Cave fielding high kicks.....?

[eirebilly]

Fair points and I understand where you are coming from kunu

[Golden]

According to Leinsterfans RTE released the team then pulled the article. Official announcement pushed back til half 2

Rob Kearney; Dave Kearney, Jared Payne, Luke Fitzgerald, Keith Earls; Jonathan Sexton, Conor Murray; Jack McGrath, Rory Best, Mike Ross; Iain Henderson, Paul O’Connell (capt); Peter O’Mahony, Sean O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip

Zebo mentioned as a sub

[Marshes]

If Ireland played a traditional game, then yeah I would agree. But, as has been discussed at length, they don't. We're going to play the aerial game, and Fitz is more like Henshaw in that respect. He's taller & heavier than Cave, and better in the air.

Thats true. I'd prefer more the game we saw against Scotland with a bit of expansion, particularly if it's Canada. Playing the aerial game against Canada puts players needlessly into potentially high collision 50/50s. Both Fitz or Cave fine for the Canadians though

[Marshes]

IRFU twitter is busy re-tweeting Canterbury promotional videos. Lucky they don't have any important announcements to make about anything right now.

[Artful_Dodger]

Have I gone mad, are we seriously talking about playing a player at inside centre on the basis of them having an aerial game???

Preposterous, absolutely laughable.....

[kunu]

If Ireland played a traditional game, then yeah I would agree. But, as has been discussed at length, they don't. We're going to play the aerial game, and Fitz is more like Henshaw in that respect. He's taller & heavier than Cave, and better in the air.

Oh cmon.....

We are talking about an inside centre here, how important is an aerial game at inside centre?  How often do we see Henshaw, D'Arcy or anyone else fielding kicks?  How likely are we to see Fitzgerald or Cave fielding high kicks.....?

Oh cmon yourself!

In the 6 nations, Henshaw was probably our most aggressive chaser following probing kicks. His fitness was insane, and he'd be the only one left going full throttle after kicks as the game wore on. Not all kicks are exit strategies. You surely remember Henshaw tracking down kicks and smashing a few of the English? It was indeed glorious.

[Marshes]

Dodger how so? Henshaw's aerial ability is a very frequent outlet for Ireland

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