England v Wales, 26 September

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ENGLAND v WALES
26 September 2015
KO: 20:00
Twickenham, London

Live on [tbc]

Referee: Jérôme Garcès (France)
Touch judges: Jaco Peyper (South Africa) & Marius Mitrea (Italy)
Television match official: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)

A. Head to Head

126 Played 126
58 Won 56
12 Drawn 12
56 Lost 58
1,596 Points 1,456

B. Recent Form

6 February 2015
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
16 – 21 to England

9 March 2014
Twickenham Stadium, London
29 – 18 to England

16 March 2013
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
30 – 3 to Wales

25 February 2012
Twickenham Stadium, London
12 – 19 to Wales

13 August 2011
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
19 – 9 to Wales

6 August 2011
Twickenham, London
23 – 19 to England

4 February 2011
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
19 – 26 to England

6 February 2010
Twickenham, London
30 – 17 to England

14 February 2009
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
23 – 15 to Wales

2 February 2008
Twickenham, London
19 – 26 to Wales

C. Teams

ENGLAND

[tbc]

WALES

[tbc]

Ok so looking at everything it's clear Gatland has a totally new game plan, one Wales haven't used before, it's called "bash them and see what happens".

Maybe we will win, maybe we won't.

lostinwales wrote:Goode can play FB or FH. Not too happy with him anywhere else. Slade can probably play 10,12,13, and 15. Nowell can play outside center, wings or FB. It does seem an odd selection

I've seen plenty of reports that Slade covers 15, but he only played a handful of games there for Plymouth Albion 3 seasons ago. To my recollection, he's never been at fullback for Exeter at any level, Amlin, LV, or "A", let alone AP, not even in injury reshuffles. I'm sure he could a job but it'd be like playing Mike Brown at 12.

To me, Nowell is the obvious 23 for that lineup. I can't see what Goode offers apart from 15 cover, or a wing injury with Brown moving up - not much in the way of impact.

Goode or Slade offers a bit more decision making if things are looking stodgy.

Geech has a surprisingly positive view on Englands selections.

So Owen Farrell has been selected ahead of George Ford at fly-half for England. For me it is no big deal.

I genuinely do not see what the fuss is about. As a coach you look at every match and decide which players you think will give you the best chance of winning that match, in terms of who starts the game and who finishes the game. Often it is a case of horses for courses. Some players are obviously more suited to facing a certain opposition than others.

And for me, Farrell starting against Wales in Saturday's Rugby World Cup tie is a logical selection. It is going to be one huge battle of the gain line, with the Wales centre Jamie Roberts a crucial figure in Wales’s plans as he tries to steam down the 10 channel.

It is going to be vital for England to win that physical battle in midfield, as well as dominate territory and get their big runners on the front foot- something they conspicuously failed to do in the first half against Fiji last Friday.

It is not going to be an open game full of tries, of that we can be sure. It is going to be tense and tight, and early on it is all going to be about territory and taking one’s points. At the moment I think Farrell will manage that pressure and that type of game better than Ford.

England are very lucky that they have two excellent fly-halves in Ford and Farrell, and I have said all along in the build up to this Rugby World Cup that they will need both of them if they are to win the trophy.

Ford could still play a very important role against Wales, because he could easily be introduced in the last quarter when the game has been freed up a little, and he could yet have considerable influence then. He has a wonderful ability to run against defences, and that will be even more effective against a tiring defence and tiring forwards, because, as they proved against Fiji, England do have a powerful 23-man squad.

But what we must not forget is that Farrell is a fine player, who has proven that he can play at the highest level - he has experience with the British and Irish Lions, remember. He was injured for much of last season but was obviously the superior player when Saracens beat Ford’s Bath in last season’s Aviva Premiership final and looks back to his best now.

And while Farrell was out, Ford was gaining valuable Test experience. England are in a much better position than they were a year ago when Ford had just two caps off the bench. He now has 14 caps, with 10 of them as a starter.

He has had excellent games, but he will know what he has to work on. He will know that his decision-making under pressure, and when England are on the back foot, needs to be smarter and sharper.

We saw that when England lost in Dublin earlier this year, and it has become more evident during the warm-up Tests and the Fiji opener.

In fairness against Fiji there were some problems inside, because scrum half Ben Youngs was taking a couple of steps looking for forward runners, who, for whatever reason, did not appear. He was then passing to Ford, who was right in front of the defence, which in turn put the centres under pressure. So suddenly all the initiative was being given to the Fijians because of the speed of their defensive line.

It is about having a clarity in getting over the gain line so that the second and third breakdowns then become the most important. Against Fiji England too often got the first couple of breakdowns wrong and that is what put them under pressure.

Those who say that England are suddenly ripping up all their best-laid plans by changing the fly half after one game of the RWC are missing the point. They are not throwing in some newcomer.

Which brings me to Sam Burgess at centre. Yes, he is a newcomer but he is hardly inexperienced on the international rugby stage. England have had problems at centre for a long time and Jonathan Joseph’s injury has forced another reshuffle, but what was obvious when Burgess and Farrell came on against Fiji was that they immediately brought a directness that England had been lacking.

They were over the gain line quickly and suddenly England’s runners from the second and third phases were running at a defence that could not regroup. You have got to stop the defensive speed in the midfield, and that was what England did in the last quarter against Fiji and will be hoping to do against Wales with Farrell and Burgess.

The way to defeat the Welsh defence, which is outstanding with 14 players often in the line, is not to pass around it but rather to find a way through it with your powerful runners.

As for Brad Barritt at outside centre, that does not strike me as a risky selection either. I have always thought that 13 is a very good position for your defensive captain to play because you can read the game well from there. And I will be very surprised if Barritt and Burgess do not interchange as well in attack, in both set-piece situations and in phase play.

England have selected shrewdly.

It's hard to disagree with that. It's not about 'dropping' anyone, it's selecting the right player for the match.

There's little balance to that 10 12 13 though.

No 7&1/2 wrote:There's little balance to that 10 12 13 though.

That's a separate argument. But you could argue there's little balance to Wales's team.

I respect him but that argument/explanation works in isolation for each spot. Add them together and it doesn't.

When Wales play well they get their big runners over the gain line, recycle quickly and repeat till they can use the strike runners.

This midfield has been selected to try and negate that. When that happens Wales either resort to the typewriter attack and risk conceding penalties, or kick to the opposition back 3.

Tactical genius or complete naivety?

All will be revealed.

typewriter attack... another one to add to the lexicon.

No 7&1/2 wrote:Goode or Slade offers a bit more decision making if things are looking stodgy.

Ford is the spare decision maker on the bench and gives the option to shift Faz across to 12 for an additional playmaker. Slade can be the additional playmaker, but doesn't really cover back 3. Goode can make the decisions from 10 or 15, but not sure he could cover centres well enough. Nowell covers back 3 to high standard (probably with Watson to FB) and has recent AP experience at 13 (for emergency cover).

You takes your choice, but with Ford at 22, I'd like to see an impact option at 23 and I reckon that's Jack.

I'm scraping the barrell.

Goode has his detractors but with some serious beef in the midfield and genuine scary pace at 11 and 14 his cheeky skills could be very useful later when the game starts to break up.

I would prefer Slade...but its not all doom and gloom.

As I said before...I just wish Launchbury was starting.

Okay, so teams are finally out – and here are my initial thoughts:

Fears as a Welsh supporter:
• Amos will be exposed. Not sure he’s up to this level yet. Fair play for picking him over Cuthbert (who is in terrible form), but Amos has yet to show anything much for Wales, despite having impressed in the Pro12 last year. Cuthbert even being on the bench is also a liability. I sincerely hope we don’t need to see him used.
• Liam Williams won’t last. Just terrified he’s not ready for rugby again. If he goes off, it’ll be a disaster.
• Our props/replacements will get injured. Again rushed and seem shakey.
• Burgess. I just see him having a massive game. This whole game is now set up perfectly for him to announce himself on the world stage as a world-class union player.
• Jonny May. He fast.
• Mike Brown. He good.
• Not having Mike Phillips on the bench is a pretty big call, but not one that bothers me much.

Fears I might have if I was supporting England:
• Why isn’t Launchbury starting? He seemed very strong compared to Lawes last week when he came on.
• The Welsh forwards look a bit more powerful than the English pack right now (who seem very athletic and mobile). This may be a misconception, but going from what I saw in the Irish warm up game in Dublin, I think this Welsh pack could potentially bully the English.
• Scott Williams. He’s in great form. Knows how to ruin parties at Twickenham, and is up against a union rookie. It could be his day.
• George North is due a big game.
• Alyn Wynn Jones. He’s developed into a leader a cut above anyone England currently have. So long as he’s on the pitch, I can’t see Wales taking a backwards step.

MarcusHalberstram wrote:Okay, so teams are finally out – and here are my initial thoughts:

• Alyn Wynn Jones.  He’s developed into a leader a cut above anyone England currently have.  So long as he’s on the pitch, I can’t see Wales taking a backwards step.    

Until Sam Burgess hits them

• The Welsh forwards look a bit more powerful than the English pack right now (who seem very athletic and mobile). This may be a misconception, but going from what I saw in the Irish warm up game in Dublin, I think this Welsh pack could potentially bully the English.

That is a fear I have of this current England pack against most teams. It hasn't really happened all that often to be fair to them...so maybe im over concerned...I think Launchbury should be starting and cant understand how he isn't....

No 7&1/2 wrote:I'm scraping the barrell.

Hmm, my sometimes sudden dyslexia had me initially read that as "I'm scrapping the Farrell." Seems a popular emotion on the declaration of the team

BamBam wrote:

MarcusHalberstram wrote:Okay, so teams are finally out – and here are my initial thoughts:

• Alyn Wynn Jones.  He’s developed into a leader a cut above anyone England currently have.  So long as he’s on the pitch, I can’t see Wales taking a backwards step.    

Until Sam Burgess hits them

Quite simply bollix.

Oh, one other fear (being Welsh) - that Gethin will get pinged off the park. This could equally happen to Marler, though - who looked like he was driving in from the direction of Cardiff against Fiji!

It wasn't that long ago you were wanting Launchbury out anyway cos he was too light weight GF so swings and roundabouts!

No 7&1/2 wrote:There's little balance to that 10 12 13 though.

They've also never played together. I find it remarkable that after all the long nights of soul searching and years of planning, England are throwing together a cobbled together midfield for the key group match of the World Cup. I appreciate the Tuilagi situation and the Joseph injury have forced things, but it just feels piecemeal and disorganised.

To be honest I wasn't happy with our selections but after looking at the Welsh team I'm a little bit more confident, but had we backed ourselves to play attacking rugby like we did during the 6 nations then we would have walked this game, as it is it will be close and a nail biter.

MarcusHalberstram wrote:Okay, so teams are finally out – and here are my initial thoughts:

Fears as a Welsh supporter:
• Amos will be exposed.  Not sure he’s up to this level yet.  Fair play for picking him over Cuthbert (who is in terrible form), but Amos has yet to show anything much for Wales, despite having impressed in the Pro12 last year.   Cuthbert even being on the bench is also a liability.  I sincerely hope we don’t need to see him used.
• Liam Williams won’t last.  Just terrified he’s not ready for rugby again.  If he goes off, it’ll be a disaster.
• Our props/replacements will get injured.  Again rushed and seem shakey.
• Burgess.  I just see him having a massive game.  This whole game is now set up perfectly for him to announce himself on the world stage as a world-class union player.  
• Jonny May.  He fast.
• Mike Brown.  He good.
• Not having Mike Phillips on the bench is a pretty big call, but not one that bothers me much.

Fears I might have if I was supporting England:
• Why isn’t Launchbury starting?  He seemed very strong compared to Lawes last week when he came on.
• The Welsh forwards look a bit more powerful than the English pack right now (who seem very athletic and mobile).  This may be a misconception, but going from what I saw in the Irish warm up game in Dublin, I think this Welsh pack could potentially bully the English.
• Scott Williams.  He’s in great form.  Knows how to ruin parties at Twickenham, and is up against a union rookie.  It could be his day.
• George North is due a big game.  
• Alyn Wynn Jones.  He’s developed into a leader a cut above anyone England currently have.  So long as he’s on the pitch, I can’t see Wales taking a backwards step.    

Very interesting. Worth saying that Williams will be lining up opposite Barritt and Roberts against Burgess.

Tight 5 vs tight 5 will be crucial. It is pretty fair to say that Wales are starting with a more heavyweight unit but there will be so many questions asked of their props.

No 7&1/2 wrote:It wasn't that long ago you were wanting Launchbury out anyway cos he was too light weight GF so swings and roundabouts!

He's heavier and more powerful than either of Lawes or Parling though 7,5

FES the issue is what should Lancaster do with his 2 13s injured?

I just hope Barritt plays better than he did vs Fiji because he had a poor game.

By whom? England's props haven't been convincing recently.

Hey LostinWales, I understand the centres aren't directly opposed, but things can get mixed up in that area in the heat of battle!

Just did the sums based on some tables I found

Welsh starting front 5 604kg
English starting front 5 565kg
39kg difference...

Full pack Wales is 19kg heavier

Being a big lump isn't everything or else Wales would be a decent team!

Scottrf wrote:Being a big lump isn't everything or else Wales would be a decent team!

Run fatty run!!

Mind you, with front rows and the obvious 2nd row replaced the situation is reversed with England 596kg to Wales 582

lostinwales wrote:Just did the sums based on some tables I found

Welsh starting front 5 604kg
English starting front 5 565kg
39kg difference...

Full pack Wales is 19kg heavier

A well drilled scrum with good technique is what really counts.  Oh dear we are Fecked!

lostinwales weight doesn't mean power or technique necessarily though.

Tomas Francis is according to his wiki page, 21st. Surely that can't all be muscle.....

Contrast this to let's say Mas and Ayerza are around 17st but I think both are better scrummagers.

Francis probably brings Wales' average weight up and T.Youngs average weight down.

So for the first 15 minutes or so before Francis is blown Wales will be on top in the forwards, followed by 40 minutes or so (actually 35 minutes given all subs come on at 50 minutes) it will be more even. Then in the last half hour the England replacements will be marching the Welsh scrum across the pitch

edit - difference between Francis and Youngs recorded weights 28kg

The extra 39kg are AW Jones' balls.

MarcusHalberstram wrote:The extra 39kg are AW Jones' balls.

How do they ever get him off the ground in the lineout?

Actually most of that weight is Francis's fat suit....

Mass and size isn't the be all.....

Look at France v Romania last night . Romania LH was giving away a huge amount against Antonio the French Th but had him on toast all night.

However if you have a heavier model with releatively good technique then it adds a lot to the pack in my opinion.

Ie Marler v Corbs. Marler is a good prop but gives away about a stone and a half on Corbs. Corbs Is another level to marler in prime form and that extra weight makes a big difference.

I was going to say it was actually mainly Samson's neck/chin/head and the ferret down his pants - until I remembered he's on the bench!

lostinwales hope you're right.

If Marler,Youngs and Cole get their bloody act together they should be able to take Jenkins,Baldwin and Francis to the cleaners.

beshocked wrote:lostinwales hope you're right.

If Marler,Youngs and Cole get their bloody act together they should be able to take Jenkins,Baldwin and Francis to the cleaners.

Can't argue with that, lets hope they are up for it.

Weight was probably more important during the "hit" days of the old scrum laws.

135kg for a European is a lot to carry around the field for 40 mins let alone 80. If England  can take the first 20mins from their own disgarded behemoth they may get the number on him.

The french has barely had packs above 850kg for years and seldom get bossed although to an extent the bigger your beasts the stronger your scrum will be.

PS - the marler, youngs and cole front 3 were the same front 3 who got torn a new one in 2013... albeit with Jones, Hibbard etc and the old rules, Wales were a different beast

fa0019 wrote:Weight was probably more important during the "hit" days of the old scrum laws.

135kg for a European is a lot to carry around the field for 40 mins let alone 80. If England  can take the first 20mins from their own disgarded behemoth they may get the number on him.

The french has barely had packs above 850kg for years and seldom get bossed although to an extent the bigger your beasts the stronger your scrum will be.

PS - the marler, youngs and cole front 3 were the same front 3 who got torn a new one in 2013... albeit with Jones, Hibbard etc and the old rules, Wales were a different beast

I think Marler has improved beyond all recognition from those days. Not so sure about the other 2

lostinwales wrote:

fa0019 wrote:Weight was probably more important during the "hit" days of the old scrum laws.

135kg for a European is a lot to carry around the field for 40 mins let alone 80. If England  can take the first 20mins from their own disgarded behemoth they may get the number on him.

The french has barely had packs above 850kg for years and seldom get bossed although to an extent the bigger your beasts the stronger your scrum will be.

PS - the marler, youngs and cole front 3 were the same front 3 who got torn a new one in 2013... albeit with Jones, Hibbard etc and the old rules, Wales were a different beast

I think Marler has improved beyond all recognition from those days. Not so sure about the other 2

redemption awaits perhaps?

Cole certain owes Lancaster and more specifically Rowntree a performance.

beshocked wrote:lostinwales hope you're right.

If Marler,Youngs and Cole get their bloody act together they should be able to take Jenkins,Baldwin and Francis to the cleaners.

Francis has come on leaps and bounds since he was uni grad concentrating on his mechanical engineering degree whilst playing for Doncaster. He has just turned 23 but has three season and seventy games at a high level, over 136kg, technically sound not sure if he was player of the year for The Chiefs but he played over 25 games and has been very good.

Don't think he will run out of steam on Saturday.

If both front rows perform to their best I just can't see England getting much change out of it.

We've talked about there being a lot of pressure on the teams but there's going to be a hell of a lot on Francis individually. Chose to represent Wales as his nose was put out of joint being ignored at younger England levels and he'll want to make an impression early. has to be targeted.

I would like to see England working a little bit on quick hook of the ball and getting it out. totally changes the dynamic of the scrum. incredible how well that worked for japan against a far far bigger Bok pack.

I would also like to see youngs pass the ball without taking two steps every time.

if we can do both these then I really cant see us losing. As it is i'm a bit worried Wales are as usual going to try to "win" penalties at the scrum and breakdown and kick their way into the quarter finals.

Regarding fitness you have to remember that rugby now allows for 5 minute breathers to be sprinkled across the 80 minutes to allow the TMO to watch extended highlighted of the match thus far. I don't think Francis will struggle too much to be honest.

I'm going for Wales by 5. Gatland's team just looks a bit more ready.

flyhalffactory wrote:

beshocked wrote:lostinwales hope you're right.

If Marler,Youngs and Cole get their bloody act together they should be able to take Jenkins,Baldwin and Francis to the cleaners.

Francis has come on leaps and bounds since he was uni grad concentrating on his mechanical engineering degree whilst playing for Doncaster. He has just turned 23 but has three season and seventy games at a high level, over 136kg, technically sound not sure if he was player of the year for The Chiefs but he played over 25 games and has been very good.

Don't think he will run out of steam on Saturday.  

If both front rows perform to their best I just can't see England getting much change out of it.

I know he has had a good rep in the AP but the pace of an international will be significantly higher than he is used to and that is a lot of weight to carry. If he had a few more caps under his belt then you'd have more confidence of him lasting but he does not. very very few props drop into the international scene and play well from day one. Cole is probably the last one who did that for England. Marler was very average when he started internationals and is very good now, and that is over 2 seasons and is still a quite remarkable rate of improvement.

I feel similarly about Samson Lee. He's there because he's better than the alternatives but he is still 'average' as an international now. With time (and luck with injuries) he should turn into a good international prop, but it does take time.

I think its a big step up for the guy though... you don't see many European guys that size in test rugby. There's a reason for that. PI chaps are different, they are simply naturally huge built on high protein diets for the last 2000 years.

135kg in test match rugby... even Adam Jones when he got good was never that big (perhaps in his early hair bears joker years when he would be marched back time and time again though).

flyhalffactory wrote:
Francis has come on leaps and bounds since he was uni grad concentrating on his mechanical engineering degree whilst playing for Doncaster. He has just turned 23 but has three season and seventy games at a high level, over 136kg, technically sound not sure if he was player of the year for The Chiefs but he played over 25 games and has been very good.

Don't think he will run out of steam on Saturday.  

If both front rows perform to their best I just can't see England getting much change out of it.

57 starts including Doncaster and London Scottish for the Yorkie Lad. (also being pedantic it was 25 games including bench for Exeter not over 25). He generally is pulled on the 55 minute mark but did last the full 80 against Wasps. He may need to do the same again.