Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

Astonishing win in terms of margin. I was surprised that the ex-Labour candidate polled as low as 8%, but I guess word spread about his removal and he was viewed, effectively, as another independent.

Even if he wasn't removed, I think Galloway still wins, so it was a stroke of luck for Starmer in that he can ignore this defeat.

I thought Galloway would be out when the GE rolls around; now I'm not 100% sure. The issue of Gaza is hurting Labour amongst its once almost guaranteed Muslim vote.

I think this result shows that an Islamic party, if led by a brilliant campaigner, is a very viable option for the future. They could stand in areas where the Muslim population is relatively high and maybe win a couple of dozen seats at a GE, being similar to the SNP in terms of insurgency.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Is it legal to change your name by deed poll to 'None Of The Above'?

This happened in America as so many people spoiled voting papers as they were so fed up with Trump and Biden. He then registered as candidate so the option Literally Anybody Else was on it. Genius.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/25/texas-name-change-election-candidate

On another issue, listening to Sunak on Today Radio 4 and Nick Robinson not letting him answer. I'm all for pressing politicians hard and making sure they answer questions asked but it's getting silly. Robinson continually interupting and talking over him. This sort of thing getting worse, interviewers trying to make out how "tough" they are. Gets a bit annoying.

Duty281 wrote:Yep, going to be the 4th of July according to reports. I get it doesn't matter because they're so far behind, but it seems terrible timing, because there's going to be lots of boat crossings during this time which is a reminder time and again the Tories have failed.

Hopefully the Tories get smashed into utter oblivion. 14 years of failure.

There will probably be more boat crossings post early July though? If they are staking anything on that in the context of the chosen date then it makes more sense to have it earlier than later.

They know they are going to get a battering. This is purely damage limitation.

Q1 growth was better than expected, inflation down to relatively 'normal' levels at 2.3%. UK out of recession, IMF growth projections higher but pace of growth expected to fall through Q2 and beyond. CPI expected to push higher in H2. Ofgem price cap announcement will be lower. Economically, it makes perfect sense to call the election now. This is about as good as its been or will get for them in recent times for the economy. The longer they wait, the longer that feel good factor (using that term very lightly) erodes.

Fiscally they are f*cked. There is no money for anymore handouts and giveaways. Markets now repricing rate cut expectations already.

Sunak is a cretin but he isn't stupid enough to not understand that waiting brings little value now. This is all about trying to keep as many votes as they can and keep the Labour majority as slim as realistically possible.

Breaking! Serial loser announces he won't stand as an MP and lose for the 9th time:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69052837

navyblueshorts wrote:Breaking! Serial loser announces he won't stand as an MP and lose for the 9th time:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69052837

Wouldn't be any point as Reform are going to get shafted by FPTP, and him concentrating on one constituency (as in 2015) will just see him hindered in campaigning nationally.

'Serial loser'. Leader of the only two parties other than Lab/Con that have won national elections in this country since WW1, and did more than anyone to get us out of the EU. Would probably have been PM at some point if we had a fair voting system. Would love to be a serial loser like that!

mountain man wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Is it legal to change your name by deed poll to 'None Of The Above'?

This happened in America as so many people spoiled voting papers as they were so fed up with Trump and Biden. He then registered as candidate so the option Literally Anybody Else was on it. Genius.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/25/texas-name-change-election-candidate

On another issue, listening to Sunak on Today Radio 4 and Nick Robinson not letting him answer. I'm all for pressing politicians hard and making sure they answer questions asked but it's getting silly. Robinson continually interupting and talking over him. This sort of thing getting worse, interviewers trying to make out how "tough" they are. Gets a bit annoying.

It's what I call Paxman style interviewing, although it probably predates him. It's highly tedious and just sees the interviewer try to make a name for themselves by being the main story through rudeness and interruption.

https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts

Britain Predicts' model currently forecasting 418 Labour MPs, 140 Tory MPs, 64 MPs for the LDs and 20 for the SNP.

I think the number of SNP seats will be tough to predict. The Lib Dems getting 64 MPs on just under 10% of the vote is amusing, because in 2010 they  got fewer seats than that with 23% of the vote! Nearly 1/5 voters currently going for either Reform or Green, but will be represented by 1/650 seats.

Bet365 are offering 13/8 that the turnout is higher than 64.5%. That seems quite interesting. The last four GEs have all had turnouts higher than that. Are they/people thinking it's going to be a lower turnout based on a sense that Labour have got it all sewn up, and a general lack of enthusiasm for both major parties?

Interesting thing was in the last locals..Labour only won by 9% and were down on projection....The big winners were independent candidates...

Which tells us there is no real enthusiasm for Labour and the integrity-less stiff that leads them.......

Will Peed off Muslims vote in red wall seats ??.......Will the hold the nose vote Labour so we can stuff the Tories hold up as expected ??....

Think we will be somewhere in between.....I know the Green party think they will win another seat in Bristol and other independents think they have chances in high Muslim areas..so there will be surprises..

Labour will win but I imagine they will be closer to 360/370.....80/90 or so majority country...

Any less than that and the 25 or so lefties left in the party after the GE may come in to play...

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:Breaking! Serial loser announces he won't stand as an MP and lose for the 9th time:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69052837

Wouldn't be any point as Reform are going to get shafted by FPTP, and him concentrating on one constituency (as in 2015) will just see him hindered in campaigning nationally.

'Serial loser'. Leader of the only two parties other than Lab/Con that have won national elections in this country since WW1, and did more than anyone to get us out of the EU. Would probably have been PM at some point if we had a fair voting system. Would love to be a serial loser like that!

Yep. Failed to become an MP on how many occasions? Seven? Eight? What a winner. Nah; he's just a self-interested wrecker.

I'm not his role in getting us out of the EU is anything very much to brag about, but accept you have differing views to myself on EU membership.

navyblueshorts wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:Breaking! Serial loser announces he won't stand as an MP and lose for the 9th time:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69052837

Wouldn't be any point as Reform are going to get shafted by FPTP, and him concentrating on one constituency (as in 2015) will just see him hindered in campaigning nationally.

'Serial loser'. Leader of the only two parties other than Lab/Con that have won national elections in this country since WW1, and did more than anyone to get us out of the EU. Would probably have been PM at some point if we had a fair voting system. Would love to be a serial loser like that!

Yep. Failed to become an MP on how many occasions? Seven? Eight? What a winner. Nah; he's just a self-interested wrecker.

I'm not his role in getting us out of the EU is anything very much to brag about, but accept you have differing views to myself on EU membership.

So what? Virtually anyone would fail to become an MP if they stood for a party getting 3% of the national vote or fewer. Self interested? If he were self-interested he could have got a job for life in some safe Tory seat.

His role in getting us out of the EU is definitely something to brag about. Cheers, Nige.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69053763

What a fool. Sunak's nonsensical smoking ban, which he touted as an achievement when announcing the election yesterday, won't even become law in time due to Parliament shutting down.

Duty281 wrote:Bet365 are offering 13/8 that the turnout is higher than 64.5%. That seems quite interesting. The last four GEs have all had turnouts higher than that. Are they/people thinking it's going to be a lower turnout based on a sense that Labour have got it all sewn up, and a general lack of enthusiasm for both major parties?

May there be an element of some dead set Tory voters not voting at all? The Tories having s**t the bed so epically between Boris and Sunak. Whilst not wanting to put their vote elsewhere.

Dumfries and Galloway is generally a strong Tory constituency. Winning the last 3 elections and a worst of second going back to '05. I know a lot of retired and affluent English folk up here who have voted Tory without thinking at every election for most their lives. They generally seem a bit confused about where to put their vote this time around. I've a couple of elderly relatives who just yesterday were absolutely adamant that Boris was a good PM ousted by bad luck and evil forces. One of them also thinks the Tories would win this election with Cameron back at the helm. I tend to not engage at family gatherings.

I wouldn't be surprised if a decent number of Tory voters around these parts just don't bother as they can't imagine voting any other way.

Labour basically just need to not man sausage it up to win a landslide I reckon.

From everything I've seen and heard the mood seems to be no-one is particularly super keen on Labour and Starmer but they actively don't want Tories so almost by default Labour will win unless Labour commit political suicide.

Duty281 wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69053763

What a fool. Sunak's nonsensical smoking ban...

It was written on the back of a fag packet.

This gave me a good laugh. Quite like two of the three proposed enemies of Michael Fabric*nt...

It's very impressive how Sunak seems to have shocked his own party more than the opposition by calling a surprise election. Labour look polished

GSC wrote:It's very impressive how Sunak seems to have shocked his own party more than the opposition by calling a surprise election. Labour look polished

The Tories surely know they won't win. The cabinet going through motions of saying it's all to play for etc etc but vast majority of MPs are now planning for life after parliament hence a distinct lack of enthusiasm all around.

I see that 'Sir' John Redwood has now decided to abandon the sinking ship, too. Not sure anyone will miss him very much, but I'm sure he'll be grifting on the back of all the contacts he has a.s.a.p.....

I see that Rishi and the Tories are maintaining their position in the political gutter as well:

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/23/rishi-sunak-staged-election-question-from-conservative-councillor-posing-as-ordinary-voter/

Is it any wonder trust in politics is shot? Just **** off, man, and take your shower of with you.

GSC wrote:It's very impressive how Sunak seems to have shocked his own party more than the opposition by calling a surprise election. Labour look polished

Looked like he even surprised the staff in no 10 - surely someone could have found him a brolly to shelter under?

Agree with the general sentiment, that Labour should win comfortably just based on not being the Conservatives. Hardly anyone seems to actively want a Starmer-led Labour government, but definitely want rid of the current shower of sh1te, and Labour, for whatever faults they have, are the only credible alternative to actually form a Government..

Oh. That's a shame. The ICJ have told Israel they have to stop their impending Rafah offensive, ensure they do what they were asked in January i.e. allow access for aid at scale, prevent destruction of/preserve evidence re. any investigation of genocidal crimes, allow unfettered access to investigators and report on what they've done along these lines to the ICJ within 1 month....

Just to show how much of a "light unto the Nations" they really are, Israel then bombed the centre of Rafah shortly after the ICJ ruling. Genius. Their journey to a pariah state continues. Interesting opinion relating to this latter in Haaretz.

navyblueshorts wrote:I see that 'Sir' John Redwood has now decided to abandon the sinking ship, too. Not sure anyone will miss him very much, but I'm sure he'll be grifting on the back of all the contacts he has a.s.a.p.....

I see that Rishi and the Tories are maintaining their position in the political gutter as well:

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/23/rishi-sunak-staged-election-question-from-conservative-councillor-posing-as-ordinary-voter/

Is it any wonder trust in politics is shot? Just **** off, man, and take your shower of with you.

Normally this would be a career ender, or would have won Labour the election already, but after the last 5 years it was just another Thursday.

More than 70 Tories not seeking reelection, as Gove becomes the highest profile MP to announce he won't be standing, with Leadsom also likely to announce she won't be standing. Gove's constituency a Tory/LD marginal, so would have been a tough fight to retain.

Really is the end of an era and the start of a new one in terms of personnel, though the politics itself will remain largely the same.

Techne's latest poll putting the Tories down to 19%, but More in Common putting it up at 27%.

Tories proposing national service really emphasizes how their key vote is people who want to force younger people to do stuff they never had to

Trying to rally the retired vote with that one. I wish the vote was this Thursday, but we've got nearly another six weeks of this.

Labour's lead between 22%-26% in four polls, but as low as 14% with Opinium.

Islington North...poll

Corbyn 36%
Labour..30%

Bristol Central

Green.50
Lab....41

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Islington North...poll

Corbyn 36%
Labour..30%

I don't believe there's any such poll.

It's a figure sourced from the highly partisan 'Stats for Lefties' Twitter page, which quotes from another highly partisan 'Marwandata' twitter page. He's done zero data/zero polling, or hasn't shared his methodology (which would be highly suspect), and has pulled some numbers out of thin air.

For what it's worth, Labour are 4/11 to win Islington North.

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Islington North...poll

Corbyn 36%
Labour..30%

I don't believe there's any such poll.

It's a figure sourced from the highly partisan 'Stats for Lefties' Twitter page, which quotes from another highly partisan 'Marwandata' twitter page. He's done zero data/zero polling, or hasn't shared his methodology (which would be highly suspect), and has pulled some numbers out of thin air.

For what it's worth, Labour are 4/11 to win Islington North.

Still a poll......

Betfred....Corbyn 2/5....Labour 7/4............William Hill has Corbyn favorite....Labour 13/8....

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Islington North...poll

Corbyn 36%
Labour..30%

I don't believe there's any such poll.

It's a figure sourced from the highly partisan 'Stats for Lefties' Twitter page, which quotes from another highly partisan 'Marwandata' twitter page. He's done zero data/zero polling, or hasn't shared his methodology (which would be highly suspect), and has pulled some numbers out of thin air.

For what it's worth, Labour are 4/11 to win Islington North.

Still a poll......

Betfred....Corbyn 2/5....Labour 7/4............William Hill has Corbyn favorite....Labour 13/8....

No, it's not a poll. There's no data, no methodology, no anything. Not a poll.

I kinda suspect Labour will just run a token campaign and let Corbyn have it as independent. Probably does no real harm to demonstrate this isn't Corbyns party anymore

GSC wrote:I kinda suspect Labour will just run a token campaign and let Corbyn have it as independent. Probably does no real harm to demonstrate this isn't Corbyns party anymore

Corbyn showing he can win without the machine is a way of showing Corbynism is finished..

Interesting take..

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

GSC wrote:I kinda suspect Labour will just run a token campaign and let Corbyn have it as independent. Probably does no real harm to demonstrate this isn't Corbyns party anymore

Corbyn showing he can win without the machine is a way of showing Corbynism is finished..

Interesting take..

Was that the same machine that he had in 2019?

superflyweight wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

GSC wrote:I kinda suspect Labour will just run a token campaign and let Corbyn have it as independent. Probably does no real harm to demonstrate this isn't Corbyns party anymore

Corbyn showing he can win without the machine is a way of showing Corbynism is finished..

Interesting take..

Was that the same machine that he had in 2019?  

The one in 2017 when he got the highest rise in vote share since 1945.....

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

superflyweight wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

GSC wrote:I kinda suspect Labour will just run a token campaign and let Corbyn have it as independent. Probably does no real harm to demonstrate this isn't Corbyns party anymore

Corbyn showing he can win without the machine is a way of showing Corbynism is finished..

Interesting take..

Was that the same machine that he had in 2019?  

The one in 2017 when he got the highest rise in vote share since 1945.....

...and lost. To Theresa May.

Corbyn being able to win in Islington was never really in doubt. Expanding that to win a GE more so

GSC wrote:Corbyn being able to win in Islington was never really in doubt. Expanding that to win a GE more so

Governments get voted out.....Not in....

Hence Starmer's pathetic approvals.

I see Diane Abbott's case was dealt with in December so she should be able to stand as she only got a warning...

Trying to screw over the first ever Black female MP who has been in Parliament 40 odd years is pretty shameful......Not a fan of hers but it is a poor-show.

JLP poll....

Lab 40 -1
Con 28 +2

Couple of points off Hung territory with this one.....

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:JLP poll....

Lab 40 -1
Con 28 +2

Couple of points off Hung territory with this one.....

And that's a distinct outlier - why not post the other poll results?

JLP (and Opinium) make adjustments to presume voters who answer DK will return to where they voted last. Which will show a ‘better’ Tory number. So a 12 point deficit is a best case scenario for the Tories at the moment - and if the assumptions don’t hold could be a lot worse.

Keir Starmer and Labour distancing themselves from Diane Abbott can only be a good thing.

You'd think because Brexit has been such a roaring success the Tories would be making that the flagship campaigning line. Pointing out how amazing things are now thanks to Brexit would surely see them get a bump in the polls?

Soul Requiem wrote:Keir Starmer and Labour distancing themselves from Diane Abbott can only be a good thing.

Generally I'd agree but this looks like a proper stitch up

JDizzle wrote:JLP (and Opinium) make adjustments to presume voters who answer DK will return to where they voted last. Which will show a ‘better’ Tory number. So a 12 point deficit is a best case scenario for the Tories at the moment - and if the assumptions don’t hold could be a lot worse.

Yeah, looking at the tables for JLP, with don't knows included (and just those who will vote), Labour's lead grows to 16%. Similar for Opinium, the lead for Labour goes up to 16% when don't knows are included.

Whereas for other polling companies the Labour lead comes down with don't knows added. YouGov's headline lead is 27%, but it's down to 20% with don't knows and those who won't vote; R and W goes from 23 to 21; Survation from 23 to 20; Techne from 26 to 17.

I think we can agree that Labour's lead is around 16%-21%, maybe a bit higher, which is a long way from a hung parliament. The Tories have the edge in undecided voters, but this is mainly because Labour voters have long since made up their mind, and the only ditherers are some 2019 Tory voters who are politically lost. And this edge is not yet anywhere close to turning the election. The Tories may also be able to squeeze Reform, as Reform voters will soon realise Reform are highly unlikely to win a seat, although Reform voters might just think f**k it, as Labour are surely winning no matter what.

First debate will be June 4th. Sunak needs the performance of his life.

What's the over/under on how many times he'll say labour have no plan

Turnout is the key.......

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

GSC wrote:I kinda suspect Labour will just run a token campaign and let Corbyn have it as independent. Probably does no real harm to demonstrate this isn't Corbyns party anymore

Corbyn showing he can win without the machine is a way of showing Corbynism is finished..

Interesting take..

Corbyn as constituency MP, and Corbyn as Labour leader and potential PM setting national policy agendas another thing altogether. He might be a very good constituency MP where his broader views don't come into doing things for individual constituents.

navyblueshorts wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

GSC wrote:I kinda suspect Labour will just run a token campaign and let Corbyn have it as independent. Probably does no real harm to demonstrate this isn't Corbyns party anymore

Corbyn showing he can win without the machine is a way of showing Corbynism is finished..

Interesting take..

Corbyn as constituency MP, and Corbyn as Labour leader and potential PM setting national policy agendas another thing altogether. He might be a very good constituency MP where his broader views don't come into doing things for individual constituents.

2005 Blair.......35%...9.5 million votes
2010 Brown....29%...8.6 million votes
2015 Miliband.30%...9.3 million votes
2017 Corbyn...40%..12.8 million votes
2019 Corbyn...33%..10.2 million votes.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

GSC wrote:I kinda suspect Labour will just run a token campaign and let Corbyn have it as independent. Probably does no real harm to demonstrate this isn't Corbyns party anymore

Corbyn showing he can win without the machine is a way of showing Corbynism is finished..

Interesting take..

Corbyn as constituency MP, and Corbyn as Labour leader and potential PM setting national policy agendas another thing altogether. He might be a very good constituency MP where his broader views don't come into doing things for individual constituents.

2005 Blair.......35%...9.5 million votes
2010 Brown....29%...8.6 million votes
2015 Miliband.30%...9.3 million votes
2017 Corbyn...40%..12.8 million votes
2019 Corbyn...33%..10.2 million votes.

Why do you continue to post these out of context stats, that have been explained away and effectively debunked before?

Iain Dale standing for the Tories in Tunbridge Wells.

YouGov's last MRP had the LDs winning this seat, and they're the narrowest of favourites on Bet365. Let's hope that's right!

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

GSC wrote:I kinda suspect Labour will just run a token campaign and let Corbyn have it as independent. Probably does no real harm to demonstrate this isn't Corbyns party anymore

Corbyn showing he can win without the machine is a way of showing Corbynism is finished..

Interesting take..

Corbyn as constituency MP, and Corbyn as Labour leader and potential PM setting national policy agendas another thing altogether. He might be a very good constituency MP where his broader views don't come into doing things for individual constituents.

2005 Blair.......35%...9.5 million votes
2010 Brown....29%...8.6 million votes
2015 Miliband.30%...9.3 million votes
2017 Corbyn...40%..12.8 million votes
2019 Corbyn...33%..10.2 million votes.

Why do you continue to post these out of context stats, that have been explained away and effectively debunked before?

You Clown....These are percentages and vote share from those elections.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

GSC wrote:I kinda suspect Labour will just run a token campaign and let Corbyn have it as independent. Probably does no real harm to demonstrate this isn't Corbyns party anymore

Corbyn showing he can win without the machine is a way of showing Corbynism is finished..

Interesting take..

Corbyn as constituency MP, and Corbyn as Labour leader and potential PM setting national policy agendas another thing altogether. He might be a very good constituency MP where his broader views don't come into doing things for individual constituents.

2005 Blair.......35%...9.5 million votes
2010 Brown....29%...8.6 million votes
2015 Miliband.30%...9.3 million votes
2017 Corbyn...40%..12.8 million votes
2019 Corbyn...33%..10.2 million votes.

Why do you continue to post these out of context stats, that have been explained away and effectively debunked before?

You Clown....These are percentages and vote share from those elections.

Yes, and they lack the context of other factors, such as third party collapses and (most crucially) seats won. Why do you continually omit context?

I might as well put up a statistic showing Peter Crouch scored more World Cup goals than George Best and more Premier League goals than Messi.