Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

Astonishing win in terms of margin. I was surprised that the ex-Labour candidate polled as low as 8%, but I guess word spread about his removal and he was viewed, effectively, as another independent.

Even if he wasn't removed, I think Galloway still wins, so it was a stroke of luck for Starmer in that he can ignore this defeat.

I thought Galloway would be out when the GE rolls around; now I'm not 100% sure. The issue of Gaza is hurting Labour amongst its once almost guaranteed Muslim vote.

I think this result shows that an Islamic party, if led by a brilliant campaigner, is a very viable option for the future. They could stand in areas where the Muslim population is relatively high and maybe win a couple of dozen seats at a GE, being similar to the SNP in terms of insurgency.

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

GSC wrote:I kinda suspect Labour will just run a token campaign and let Corbyn have it as independent. Probably does no real harm to demonstrate this isn't Corbyns party anymore

Corbyn showing he can win without the machine is a way of showing Corbynism is finished..

Interesting take..

Corbyn as constituency MP, and Corbyn as Labour leader and potential PM setting national policy agendas another thing altogether. He might be a very good constituency MP where his broader views don't come into doing things for individual constituents.

2005 Blair.......35%...9.5 million votes
2010 Brown....29%...8.6 million votes
2015 Miliband.30%...9.3 million votes
2017 Corbyn...40%..12.8 million votes
2019 Corbyn...33%..10.2 million votes.

Why do you continue to post these out of context stats, that have been explained away and effectively debunked before?

You Clown....These are percentages and vote share from those elections.

Yes, and they lack the context of other factors, such as third party collapses and (most crucially) seats won. Why do you continually omit context?

I might as well put up a statistic showing Peter Crouch scored more World Cup goals than George Best and more Premier League goals than Messi.

Doesn't mean diddly.....These people voted for Corbyn's Labour.......There are factors in every election boohoo.......

Go and pretend Farage isn't a racist...

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

GSC wrote:I kinda suspect Labour will just run a token campaign and let Corbyn have it as independent. Probably does no real harm to demonstrate this isn't Corbyns party anymore

Corbyn showing he can win without the machine is a way of showing Corbynism is finished..

Interesting take..

Corbyn as constituency MP, and Corbyn as Labour leader and potential PM setting national policy agendas another thing altogether. He might be a very good constituency MP where his broader views don't come into doing things for individual constituents.

2005 Blair.......35%...9.5 million votes
2010 Brown....29%...8.6 million votes
2015 Miliband.30%...9.3 million votes
2017 Corbyn...40%..12.8 million votes
2019 Corbyn...33%..10.2 million votes.

Why do you continue to post these out of context stats, that have been explained away and effectively debunked before?

You Clown....These are percentages and vote share from those elections.

Yes, and they lack the context of other factors, such as third party collapses and (most crucially) seats won. Why do you continually omit context?

I might as well put up a statistic showing Peter Crouch scored more World Cup goals than George Best and more Premier League goals than Messi.

Doesn't mean diddly.....These people voted for Corbyn's Labour.......There are factors in every election boohoo.......

Go and pretend Farage isn't a racist...

You're right, these stats don't mean diddly. This is the only thing that matters:

2005 - 355 MPs
2010 - 258 MPs
2015 - 232 MPs
2017 - 262 MPs
2019 - 202 MPs

Duty281 wrote:

2005 - 355 MPs
2010 - 258 MPs
2015 - 232 MPs
2017 - 262 MPs
2019 - 202 MPs

Big reason why Labour may only need around a 6 point lead for a majority - their vote is far more efficient under Starmer. How much of that is actually down to him is debatable.

JDizzle wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

2005 - 355 MPs
2010 - 258 MPs
2015 - 232 MPs
2017 - 262 MPs
2019 - 202 MPs

Big reason why Labour may only need around a 6 point lead for a majority - their vote is far more efficient under Starmer. How much of that is actually down to him is debatable.

Be the first election for a while if ever....The Tories poll under 30%.....

But maybe the Tories need routing so they can rebuild with competent people....Braverman..Johnson....Anderson...Patel and Truss....

What a shower of .....

Duty281 wrote:Iain Dale standing for the Tories in Tunbridge Wells.

YouGov's last MRP had the LDs winning this seat, and they're the narrowest of favourites on Bet365. Let's hope that's right!

Oh, he's withdrawn after a couple of days, after a recording was unearthed of him saying he didn't like living in the constituency.

Back to LBC then?

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

GSC wrote:I kinda suspect Labour will just run a token campaign and let Corbyn have it as independent. Probably does no real harm to demonstrate this isn't Corbyns party anymore

Corbyn showing he can win without the machine is a way of showing Corbynism is finished..

Interesting take..

Corbyn as constituency MP, and Corbyn as Labour leader and potential PM setting national policy agendas another thing altogether. He might be a very good constituency MP where his broader views don't come into doing things for individual constituents.

2005 Blair.......35%...9.5 million votes
2010 Brown....29%...8.6 million votes
2015 Miliband.30%...9.3 million votes
2017 Corbyn...40%..12.8 million votes
2019 Corbyn...33%..10.2 million votes.

Eh? I'm suggesting Corbyn might still be elected as an independent based on his actions as a local constituency MP (amazing that, eh?), but you post irrelevant national info? There's no reason why the two must be in any way connected.

Starmer turns again and gives into the left of his party.

Will Starmer be bullied so easily as PM?

Labour have spent lots of time attacking Sunak for travelling in a helicopter.....while Starmer travels by private jet.

Starmer just playing it safe with a massive lead mostly. Seems very pointless fight to pick by labour hq given Abbott was apparently going to retire anyway

Listening to Starmer and Sunak increasingly reminds me of the delusional artillery man in War of the Worlds (as portrayed memorably by David Essex )
Take a look around you at the world you've loved so well,
And bid the aging empire of man a last farewell
It may not sound like heaven but at least it isn't hell
It's a brave new world with just a handful of men,
We'll start, we'll start all over again!
All over again! All over again! All over again!
I'VE GOT A PLAN!

GSC wrote:Starmer just playing it safe with a massive lead mostly. Seems very pointless fight to pick by labour hq given Abbott was apparently going to retire anyway

Saw a clip of Abbott on the news this morning. She was holding a mic at a recent rally, and I don't think she looked at all well; couldn't hold the mic steady and looked very much like she had a nasty tremor. Look quite frail when she was led to a car.

Nige to lead Reform, which makes sense. And he'll stand in Clacton, which was the one seat won by UKIP in 2015. Would be quite amusing if he won Carswell's old seat.

YouGov's last MRP put the Tories on 38%, Labour 28% and Reform 22% (in Clacton). I think Farage will attract a lot of the 38%, but Labour will put in a huge effort to stop him.

Reform now move to 10/11 to win Clacton, Tories 11/10.

navyblueshorts wrote:

GSC wrote:Starmer just playing it safe with a massive lead mostly. Seems very pointless fight to pick by labour hq given Abbott was apparently going to retire anyway

Saw a clip of Abbott on the news this morning. She was holding a mic at a recent rally, and I don't think she looked at all well; couldn't hold the mic steady and looked very much like she had a nasty tremor. Look quite frail when she was led to a car.

That was a couple days ago I think. I thought same, had a real tremor.

YouGovs first MRP of the 2024 election has Labour winning a whopping 194 seat majority - the biggest in almost 100 years.

Labour: 422 (+220 from GE2019)
Conservative: 140 (-225)
Lib Dem: 48 (+37)
SNP: 17 (-31)
Green: 2 (+1)
PC: 2 (-2)
Reform UK: 0 (=)

Go home everyone. The election is finished.

Duty281 wrote:Nige to lead Reform, which makes sense. And he'll stand in Clacton, which was the one seat won by UKIP in 2015. Would be quite amusing if he won Carswell's old seat.

YouGov's last MRP put the Tories on 38%, Labour 28% and Reform 22% (in Clacton). I think Farage will attract a lot of the 38%, but Labour will put in a huge effort to stop him.

Reform now move to 10/11 to win Clacton, Tories 11/10.

YouGov have now banged out a new MRP, with the Tories increasing their margin in Clacton to 42-20, but obviously this was before Farage's announcement of his candidature.

Overall, the MRP puts Labour on 422, the Tories on 140 and the LDs on 48. That, I think, would be the lowest Tory seat total since the party was founded in 1834!

Samo wrote:YouGovs first MRP of the 2024 election has Labour winning a whopping 194 seat majority - the biggest in almost 100 years.

Labour: 422 (+220 from GE2019)
Conservative: 140 (-225)
Lib Dem: 48 (+37)
SNP: 17 (-31)
Green: 2 (+1)
PC: 2 (-2)
Reform UK: 0 (=)

Go home everyone. The election is finished.

Do NOT go home everyone. That'll only benefit the current shower of . Don't assume it's a done deal. Vote.

Duty281 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Nige to lead Reform, which makes sense. And he'll stand in Clacton, which was the one seat won by UKIP in 2015. Would be quite amusing if he won Carswell's old seat.

YouGov's last MRP put the Tories on 38%, Labour 28% and Reform 22% (in Clacton). I think Farage will attract a lot of the 38%, but Labour will put in a huge effort to stop him.

Reform now move to 10/11 to win Clacton, Tories 11/10.

YouGov have now banged out a new MRP, with the Tories increasing their margin in Clacton to 42-20, but obviously this was before Farage's announcement of his candidature.

Overall, the MRP puts Labour on 422, the Tories on 140 and the LDs on 48. That, I think, would be the lowest Tory seat total since the party was founded in 1834!

Here's hoping! Labour will need an opposition, but no-one in the right mind would think the Tories can even fulfil that role. They need to go into the wilderness, decide what they are, decide if that includes the idiots, decide if they're actually a Party w/ the country's best interests at heart (all the evidence says not, but you never know...), come up with some adult policies and see where that takes them in the future. Hopefully, I'll be dead by then...

Sunak and Starmer go H2H on ITV tonight. Can Sunak produce a miracle?

Be a miracle if he can go 5 minutes between claiming Starmer has no plan

Farage will win Clacton.......Survation did a poll there in January when the Tories were polling higher than they are now.......

"If Farage stood for Reform in a GE in Clacton ??"

Reform...37
Conserv 27
Labour....17

Its going well for Nige. Barely 5 minutes into his campaign and he's already had a drink thrown over him. Such a shame.

Samo wrote:Its going well for Nige.  Barely 5 minutes into his campaign and he's already had a drink thrown over him.  Such a shame.

Decent people will indeed condemn this. MPs/potential MPs of whatever party should be allowed to campaign without being assaulted. The current political climate is very dangerous, unfortunately, which undoubtedly turns more potential politicians away from politics, and we certainly don't want situations where MPs cannot interact with the public.

Its definitely not funny and we should absolutely not point and laugh.

Samo wrote:Its definitely not funny and we should absolutely not point and laugh.

Bit like when Jo Cox and David Amiss encountered knives instead of milkshakes..

We should all laugh when a politician has an attack on his/her person....Hilarious...

Samo wrote:Its definitely not funny and we should absolutely not point and laugh.

What a pathetic comment.

Soul Requiem wrote:

Samo wrote:Its definitely not funny and we should absolutely not point and laugh.

What a pathetic comment.

Thank you.

New megapoll by Moreincommon....

Has the Tories on 180 seats.....Gives Labour a majority of just over a hundred but I think the Tories would take it...

Good news for them........The bad news is it was taken before Farage joined the race and he will affect the percentages albeit slightly.

Survation megapoll with 30,000 respondents taken BEFORE Farage..

Lab 487
Con.71
Lib..43
SNP 26
REF..3 ????

Direction of travel could see the LIB DEMs in chief opposition........

Survation have some right strangeness in their MRP - "For example, if a party has a 50% chance of winning in 4 seats, we allocate 2 seats to them. This approach indicates that..."

So, while I'd love the Tories to be down that low, I think it's a bit unlikely (on present figures).

Debate seemed to have gone OK for Sunak (didn't see it). A snap poll giving him a 51-49% win, which I think is very credible considering his lack of popularity.

Weird dynamic of Rishi having to go on the attack and Starmer protecting his lead. Hard to take anything Rishi says seriously though when it boils down to "I will fix all these things I broke". Largely summed up when he tried to argue he's brought waiting list numbers down from a peak achieved under his leadership.

The seven way debate on Friday on the BBC is just going to be pure chaos.

Odd that Starmer let Sunak go on about 2 grand tax rises for so long when the treasury wrote to labour 2 days ago saying it was made up

Quite amazing in a 24/7 news age....How a couple of Humorless, charisma-voids can be leaders of the two biggest parties.

Awful debate......A No-Score draw.

Duty281 wrote:

Samo wrote:Its going well for Nige.  Barely 5 minutes into his campaign and he's already had a drink thrown over him.  Such a shame.

Decent people will indeed condemn this. MPs/potential MPs of whatever party should be allowed to campaign without being assaulted. The current political climate is very dangerous, unfortunately, which undoubtedly turns more potential politicians away from politics, and we certainly don't want situations where MPs cannot interact with the public.

Regardless of what you think of any politician or their political views, this is unacceptable. What if it had been acid?

It's not funny or deserved etc, it's totally unacceptable.

For sake of clarity, I'm not a Reform voter.

To be fair Sunak is at best 6th choice.

More people are probably gonna see that Sunak outright lied about this claim than actually watched the debate. Seems counter productive

mountain man wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Samo wrote:Its going well for Nige.  Barely 5 minutes into his campaign and he's already had a drink thrown over him.  Such a shame.

Decent people will indeed condemn this. MPs/potential MPs of whatever party should be allowed to campaign without being assaulted. The current political climate is very dangerous, unfortunately, which undoubtedly turns more potential politicians away from politics, and we certainly don't want situations where MPs cannot interact with the public.

Regardless of what you think of any politician or their political views, this is unacceptable. What if it had been acid?

It's not funny or deserved etc, it's totally unacceptable.

For sake of clarity, I'm not a Reform voter.

Absolutely. I probably will be a Reform voter, but I always call it out against any politician. I thought it was concerning at Labour's conference, for example, that a protester managed to throw glitter over Starmer. That, again, could have been so much worse.

Security for politicians and even the King is just terrible. We don't live in a high trust society anymore, so that needs to change. Though I think it's only a matter of time before another dreadful incident occurs.

But, sadly, some people support assault against politicians they disagree with, and they're either not bright enough to understand the ramifications of that, or they genuinely think our democracy should be a place where assault is encouraged and politicians are sheltered away for fear of violent retribution.

I condemn violence against politicians - as I did when David Amess was attacked, but I wont apologize for enjoying a bit of schadenfreude when a racist, fascist, bigot gets a milkshake thrown on him.

I know, you support assault against politicians, no need to reiterate.

Samo wrote:Its definitely not funny and we should absolutely not point and laugh.

I can't stand Farage, and I think he's scum, but I can't condone this. Could have been bleach, ammonia, conc. acid etc or as TRUSS suggests, a more explicit weapon.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Quite amazing in a 24/7 news age....How a couple of Humorless, charisma-voids can be leaders of the two biggest parties.

Awful debate......A No-Score draw.

True. This sort of 'debate' is nothing of the sort, really. Think they should be canned. Pointless.

I'd be far more interested in each party leader being absolutely grilled, in depth for an hour or more, by a panel of decent journalists and economists etc. The politicians would never agree to something like that, however.

navyblueshorts wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Quite amazing in a 24/7 news age....How a couple of Humorless, charisma-voids can be leaders of the two biggest parties.

Awful debate......A No-Score draw.

True. This sort of 'debate' is nothing of the sort, really. Think they should be canned. Pointless.

I'd be far more interested in each party leader being absolutely grilled, in depth for an hour or more, by a panel of decent journalists and economists etc. The politicians would never agree to something like that, however.

The format was crap (too many questions, not enough depth) and the moderator was hopeless.

I've watched a couple of the US Presidential debates (I was in the US at the time of one of the Obama v McCain debates), and they do (at least did, until Trump v Clinton) it so much better than we do with regards to getting some meat on the bones of the issues.

navyblueshorts wrote:

Samo wrote:Its definitely not funny and we should absolutely not point and laugh.

I can't stand Farage, and I think he's scum, but I can't condone this. Could have been bleach, ammonia, conc. acid etc or as TRUSS suggests, a more explicit weapon.

Could have been, and if it was I would have rightly condemned it. But it wasnt. So I wont.

dummy_half wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Quite amazing in a 24/7 news age....How a couple of Humorless, charisma-voids can be leaders of the two biggest parties.

Awful debate......A No-Score draw.

True. This sort of 'debate' is nothing of the sort, really. Think they should be canned. Pointless.

I'd be far more interested in each party leader being absolutely grilled, in depth for an hour or more, by a panel of decent journalists and economists etc. The politicians would never agree to something like that, however.

The format was crap (too many questions, not enough depth) and the moderator was hopeless.

I've watched a couple of the US Presidential debates (I was in the US at the time of one of the Obama v McCain debates), and they do (at least did, until Trump v Clinton) it so much better than we do  with regards to getting some meat on the bones of the issues.

I'm really not a fan of the debates. We're not electing a President and, unlike America, we genuinely have smaller parties who can do well/make an impact, and they either get excluded/don't get enough airtime, which is detrimental to our democracy.

Plus, like you say, the depth of answer is terrible. We might as well just give each political leader five minutes to make a Dragons Den style pitch and leave it at that, rather than spending an hour watching them talk over each other.

Lab: 40%; Con: 19%; Reform UK: 17%; Lib Dem: 10%; Green: 7%; SNP: 3%

YouGov's latest poll. They have been a bit kinder to Reform than other polling companies, but it'd be so great to witness a poll which puts Reform ahead of the Tories, and they're just 2% off at the moment. Come on, Nige.

Apparently this is the first poll from YouGov to use new methodology, which mirrors that of the MRP. The old methodology would have seen an 18-18 tie.

TBH I was more interested in watching England play France last night than the debate. Labour unless they completely lose the plot are going to cruise to a win so whatver is said in debates etc not going to make any difference.

Duty281 wrote:Lab: 40%; Con: 19%; Reform UK: 17%; Lib Dem: 10%; Green: 7%; SNP: 3%

YouGov's latest poll. They have been a bit kinder to Reform than other polling companies, but it'd be so great to witness a poll which puts Reform ahead of the Tories, and they're just 2% off at the moment. Come on, Nige.

Apparently this is the first poll from YouGov to use new methodology, which mirrors that of the MRP. The old methodology would have seen an 18-18 tie.

First post Farage poll...Poll also has Lib Dems in as opposition 65mps-58mps....But Sunak probably edged the debate so maybe waiting until the end of the week will give us a better guide...

Tories are 3/1 to win Clacton.......That's quite the underdog.

Imagine we'll start to see the direction of travel for Tory MPs ditching them to reform. Nigel picking his spot to direct the future of the Tory party

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Lab: 40%; Con: 19%; Reform UK: 17%; Lib Dem: 10%; Green: 7%; SNP: 3%

YouGov's latest poll. They have been a bit kinder to Reform than other polling companies, but it'd be so great to witness a poll which puts Reform ahead of the Tories, and they're just 2% off at the moment. Come on, Nige.

Apparently this is the first poll from YouGov to use new methodology, which mirrors that of the MRP. The old methodology would have seen an 18-18 tie.

First post Farage poll...Poll also has Lib Dems in as opposition 65mps-58mps....But Sunak probably edged the debate so maybe waiting until the end of the week will give us a better guide...

Tories are 3/1 to win Clacton.......That's quite the underdog.

If that's winning, I'd hate to see what losing is like. Awful. Full of scripted, badly acted lines. Oh, and apparently also bare-faced lies. Not a great look, but one totally in keeping w/ the current Tory shower.

GSC wrote:Imagine we'll start to see the direction of travel for Tory MPs ditching them to reform. Nigel picking his spot to direct the future of the Tory party

If the Conservatives do move even further to the right after the election, whether that's under Jenrick, Braverman, or even let's say Farage, I don't see how they wouldn't be waving goodbye to the Blue Wall for as long as they stay there. They've chased the votes of a smaller and smaller percentage of the electorate, in the knowledge that it was a smaller and smaller percentage of the electorate, all out of a desperate desire not to be outflanked, and there's an inevitable consequence to that when there's a centrist alternative.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

GSC wrote:Imagine we'll start to see the direction of travel for Tory MPs ditching them to reform. Nigel picking his spot to direct the future of the Tory party

If the Conservatives do move even further to the right after the election, whether that's under Jenrick, Braverman, or even let's say Farage, I don't see how they wouldn't be waving goodbye to the Blue Wall for as long as they stay there. They've chased the votes of a smaller and smaller percentage of the electorate, in the knowledge that it was a smaller and smaller percentage of the electorate, all out of a desperate desire not to be outflanked, and there's an inevitable consequence to that when there's a centrist alternative.

Worked for Trump and the Republicans in 2016 and was pretty close in 2020 and looking like again in 24 - rather than fighting for the centre, try to mobilise groups who are not normally voters, who are dissatisfied with the whole system and process. I think there was a group like that in the last UK election, fed up of the stasis on Brexit, but I think it is hard for the Tories to attract the dissatisfied fringes now with Brexit out of the way, when they have been the party of Government for 14 years, and it is precisely their rule that people are dissatisfied with.