Political round up.............

by Duty281 Fri 01 Mar 2024, 7:58 am

First topic message reminder :

Astonishing win in terms of margin. I was surprised that the ex-Labour candidate polled as low as 8%, but I guess word spread about his removal and he was viewed, effectively, as another independent.

Even if he wasn't removed, I think Galloway still wins, so it was a stroke of luck for Starmer in that he can ignore this defeat.

I thought Galloway would be out when the GE rolls around; now I'm not 100% sure. The issue of Gaza is hurting Labour amongst its once almost guaranteed Muslim vote.

I think this result shows that an Islamic party, if led by a brilliant campaigner, is a very viable option for the future. They could stand in areas where the Muslim population is relatively high and maybe win a couple of dozen seats at a GE, being similar to the SNP in terms of insurgency.

by **JuliusHMarx** Fri 05 Jul 2024, 10:40 am

Very pleased to see Truss gone. I do wonder if she will ever accept any blame for anything, but she may have got the message at last.
Reform must be disappointed, especially after the exit poll. Way down on vote share to the Tories, didn't get anywhere near achieving the goal of wiping them out, and only 4 MPs, same as the Greens. Can't see Farage being much of a voice in Parliament with so few behind him - even 10 or so MPs would have been enough to make a little noise. I reckon he'll probably lose interest in it, having ended up such a little fish. Not enough in it to satisfy his ego.
PR will never happen, as we all know. We've (not me, I've wanted PR for about 30 years) banged on for centuries about having the greatest democracy in the world - can't see it ever changing. It would be hypocritical for the right wing to suddenly want it, after not wanting it before i.e. when the Lib Dems were trying to get it.

by mountain man Fri 05 Jul 2024, 10:43 am

Sunak just announced he's stepping down as leader. Not a surprise.

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jul 2024, 10:54 am

JuliusHMarx wrote:Very pleased to see Truss gone. I do wonder if she will ever accept any blame for anything, but she may have got the message at last.
Reform must be disappointed, especially after the exit poll. Way down on vote share to the Tories, didn't get anywhere near achieving the goal of wiping them out, and only 4 MPs, same as the Greens. Can't see Farage being much of a voice in Parliament with so few behind him - even 10 or so MPs would have been enough to make a little noise. I reckon he'll probably lose interest in it, having ended up such a little fish. Not enough in it to satisfy his ego.
PR will never happen, as we all know. We've (not me, I've wanted PR for about 30 years) banged on for centuries about having the greatest democracy in the world - can't see it ever changing. It would be hypocritical for the right wing to suddenly want it, after not wanting it before i.e. when the Lib Dems were trying to get it.

Yes, Reform will be slightly disappointed.

On the positive side, they've got four MPs in and they've done better than UKIP in 2015. They've got a foothold and loads of second place seats they can target in 2029. That's the good news.

The bad news is the Tories did much better than the polling (and presumably Reform) anticipated. The Tories only losing by 10%, better than 1997, means they're only a 2010-sized swing from returning to office in 2029. And against an unpopular Starmer government, this shouldn't be too arduous. I was hoping for the annihilation of the Tory Party, it hasn't happened. And it won't be too long before the Tories are leading in the polls again.

Hopefully Reform and Green will bang the drum for PR the loudest. The Lib Dems will hopefully join in as well. But it's a forlorn hope.

by GSC Fri 05 Jul 2024, 10:56 am

Suspect Nige will be off to stump for Donald sooner than later

by GSC Fri 05 Jul 2024, 10:59 am

JuliusHMarx wrote:Very pleased to see Truss gone. I do wonder if she will ever accept any blame for anything, but she may have got the message at last.
Reform must be disappointed, especially after the exit poll. Way down on vote share to the Tories, didn't get anywhere near achieving the goal of wiping them out, and only 4 MPs, same as the Greens. Can't see Farage being much of a voice in Parliament with so few behind him - even 10 or so MPs would have been enough to make a little noise. I reckon he'll probably lose interest in it, having ended up such a little fish. Not enough in it to satisfy his ego.
PR will never happen, as we all know. We've (not me, I've wanted PR for about 30 years) banged on for centuries about having the greatest democracy in the world - can't see it ever changing. It would be hypocritical for the right wing to suddenly want it, after not wanting it before i.e. when the Lib Dems were trying to get it.

The way she had to be dragged out while everyone waited on stage then immediately stomped off makes me suspect not

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jul 2024, 11:06 am

Political round up............. - Page 14 GRstHc6WkAAz-BO?format=png&name=small

Good graphic. The marginal election.

by GSC Fri 05 Jul 2024, 11:08 am

A lot of tactical voting. More prominent than it's ever been I think

by GSC Fri 05 Jul 2024, 11:12 am

Decent speech from Sunak, in contrast to a lot of what he threw out during this campaign

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jul 2024, 11:15 am

Spoiler:

Deeply disturbing stuff. And these divisions are only going to become more entrenched. This is the future of many towns and cities in England. Very dark times ahead, unless those in power get to grips with it (which they won't).

by dummy_half Fri 05 Jul 2024, 11:23 am

Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:Very pleased to see Truss gone. I do wonder if she will ever accept any blame for anything, but she may have got the message at last.
Reform must be disappointed, especially after the exit poll. Way down on vote share to the Tories, didn't get anywhere near achieving the goal of wiping them out, and only 4 MPs, same as the Greens. Can't see Farage being much of a voice in Parliament with so few behind him - even 10 or so MPs would have been enough to make a little noise. I reckon he'll probably lose interest in it, having ended up such a little fish. Not enough in it to satisfy his ego.
PR will never happen, as we all know. We've (not me, I've wanted PR for about 30 years) banged on for centuries about having the greatest democracy in the world - can't see it ever changing. It would be hypocritical for the right wing to suddenly want it, after not wanting it before i.e. when the Lib Dems were trying to get it.

Yes, Reform will be slightly disappointed.

On the positive side, they've got four MPs in and they've done better than UKIP in 2015. They've got a foothold and loads of second place seats they can target in 2029. That's the good news.

The bad news is the Tories did much better than the polling (and presumably Reform) anticipated. The Tories only losing by 10%, better than 1997, means they're only a 2010-sized swing from returning to office in 2029. And against an unpopular Starmer government, this shouldn't be too arduous. I was hoping for the annihilation of the Tory Party, it hasn't happened. And it won't be too long before the Tories are leading in the polls again.

Hopefully Reform and Green will bang the drum for PR the loudest. The Lib Dems will hopefully join in as well. But it's a forlorn hope.

It is a Lib Dem manifesto position, even if this time they've actually got roughly the same number of MPs as their vote share. Definitely though a wonky election because of the vagaries of FPTP - Labour with little more than a third of the vote and almost 2/3 of the seats, Reform getting a chunk more votes than Lib Dems but getting almost nothing, and mainly just being responsible for the massive losses for the Conservatives through their heartlands.
.

It will be interesting when the more thorough analysis comes through, as I get the impression that Reform took a fair chunk of Labour votes in the north, but that there was a significant Conservative to Labour swing in the south, also assisted by a swing from Conservative to Reform. Certainly how we've managed to elect a Labour MP in a Constituency that had a 10K+ Conservative majority in 2019 (North-east Hertfordshire). 11% swing to Labour, 14% to Reform, pretty much matching the 25% loss for the Conservative (no significant boundary changes, but the incumbent Conservative MP stepped down)
Definitely an election the Conservatives lost, and lost badly, mostly to Reform but in places hiving off votes to Labour, Lib Dems and Greens.

Not really a ringing endorsement for Labour, but they have power now, and have the chance to prove their competence as a Government. Given we've had increasing levels of incompetence since about 2015 and Cameron's unnecessary referendum, be interesting to see what tehy can actually do with the kind of majority that should allow some radical policy options.

by mountain man Fri 05 Jul 2024, 11:24 am

I find this a bit disturbing as well. Surely you vote for an MP to represent the constituency of where you live, not another country.
The fact likes of Corbyn standing for Palestine in effect is to me utterly wrong and I can see why a lot may vote for him on that basis but it has nothing to do with local area.
Galloway even more so. However, fortunately that nut job didn't win.

As you say, this can only create division. Of course we live in a multi cultural society and that's great but it seems like some don't want that just create a little Palestine/Isreal/whatever within their area to exclusion of everything else.

Division mean sides are chosen which can lead to real issues, hate, violence etc

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jul 2024, 11:41 am

mountain man wrote:I find this a bit disturbing as well. Surely you vote for an MP to represent the constituency of where you live, not another country.
The fact likes of Corbyn standing for Palestine in effect is to me utterly wrong and I can see why a lot may vote for him on that basis but it has nothing to do with local area.
Galloway even more so. However, fortunately that nut job didn't win.

As you say, this can only create division. Of course we live in a multi cultural society and that's great but it seems like some don't want that just create a little Palestine/Isreal/whatever within their area to exclusion of everything else.

Division mean sides are chosen which can lead to real issues, hate, violence etc

Only going to get worse. Once the Islamists* get grouped into a proper party, they will pick up double digit seat numbers. It's inevitable. The Muslim vote is already leaving Labour in droves (Birmingham Ladywood saw Labour's vote drop by 40%) and is waiting to be capitalised on by an actual organised group, and the Muslim population is steadily increasing. This will then lead to a backlash by some of the non-Muslim UK population (mostly white Britons), which will lead to some far-right party gaining ground. That's the grim future awaiting us.

*I definite Islamist as a minority of the Muslim population in the UK, who are broadly homophobic, misogynistic and illiberal.

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jul 2024, 11:44 am

dummy_half wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:Very pleased to see Truss gone. I do wonder if she will ever accept any blame for anything, but she may have got the message at last.
Reform must be disappointed, especially after the exit poll. Way down on vote share to the Tories, didn't get anywhere near achieving the goal of wiping them out, and only 4 MPs, same as the Greens. Can't see Farage being much of a voice in Parliament with so few behind him - even 10 or so MPs would have been enough to make a little noise. I reckon he'll probably lose interest in it, having ended up such a little fish. Not enough in it to satisfy his ego.
PR will never happen, as we all know. We've (not me, I've wanted PR for about 30 years) banged on for centuries about having the greatest democracy in the world - can't see it ever changing. It would be hypocritical for the right wing to suddenly want it, after not wanting it before i.e. when the Lib Dems were trying to get it.

Yes, Reform will be slightly disappointed.

On the positive side, they've got four MPs in and they've done better than UKIP in 2015. They've got a foothold and loads of second place seats they can target in 2029. That's the good news.

The bad news is the Tories did much better than the polling (and presumably Reform) anticipated. The Tories only losing by 10%, better than 1997, means they're only a 2010-sized swing from returning to office in 2029. And against an unpopular Starmer government, this shouldn't be too arduous. I was hoping for the annihilation of the Tory Party, it hasn't happened. And it won't be too long before the Tories are leading in the polls again.

Hopefully Reform and Green will bang the drum for PR the loudest. The Lib Dems will hopefully join in as well. But it's a forlorn hope.

It is a Lib Dem manifesto position, even if this time they've actually got roughly the same number of MPs as their vote share. Definitely though a wonky election because of the vagaries of FPTP - Labour with little more than a third of the vote and almost 2/3 of the seats, Reform getting a chunk more votes than Lib Dems but getting almost nothing, and mainly just being responsible for the massive losses for the Conservatives through their heartlands.
.

It will be interesting when the more thorough analysis comes through, as I get the impression that Reform took a fair chunk of Labour votes in the north, but that there was a significant Conservative to Labour swing in the south, also assisted by a swing from Conservative to Reform. Certainly how we've managed to elect a Labour MP in a Constituency that had a 10K+ Conservative majority in 2019 (North-east Hertfordshire). 11% swing to Labour, 14% to Reform, pretty much matching the 25% loss for the Conservative (no significant boundary changes, but the incumbent Conservative MP stepped down)
Definitely an election the Conservatives lost, and lost badly, mostly to Reform but in places hiving off votes to Labour, Lib Dems and Greens.

Not really a ringing endorsement for Labour, but they have power now, and have the chance to prove their competence as a Government. Given we've had increasing levels of incompetence since about 2015 and Cameron's unnecessary referendum, be interesting to see what tehy can actually do with the kind of majority that should allow some radical policy options.

Indeed, but don't think Starmer has much in the way of radical ideas.

by **navyblueshorts** Fri 05 Jul 2024, 11:52 am

Duty281 wrote:
Spoiler:

Deeply disturbing stuff. And these divisions are only going to become more entrenched. This is the future of many towns and cities in England. Very dark times ahead, unless those in power get to grips with it (which they won't).

Had Starmer not made such a ham-fisted SNAFU of initial comments re. Israel/Gaza, it wouldn't have happened. It's a foreign policy issue close to some people's hearts; not a surprise.

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jul 2024, 11:55 am

navyblueshorts wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Spoiler:

Deeply disturbing stuff. And these divisions are only going to become more entrenched. This is the future of many towns and cities in England. Very dark times ahead, unless those in power get to grips with it (which they won't).
Had Starmer not made such a ham-fisted SNAFU of initial comments re. Israel/Gaza, it wouldn't have happened. It's a foreign policy issue close to some people's hearts; not a surprise.

The Muslim vote was leaving Labour before October 7th; the recent conflict just sped the process up.

by **navyblueshorts** Fri 05 Jul 2024, 11:58 am

Duty281 wrote:
mountain man wrote:I find this a bit disturbing as well. Surely you vote for an MP to represent the constituency of where you live, not another country.
The fact likes of Corbyn standing for Palestine in effect is to me utterly wrong and I can see why a lot may vote for him on that basis but it has nothing to do with local area.
Galloway even more so. However, fortunately that nut job didn't win.

As you say, this can only create division. Of course we live in a multi cultural society and that's great but it seems like some don't want that just create a little Palestine/Isreal/whatever within their area to exclusion of everything else.

Division mean sides are chosen which can lead to real issues, hate, violence etc

Only going to get worse. Once the Islamists* get grouped into a proper party, they will pick up double digit seat numbers. It's inevitable. The Muslim vote is already leaving Labour in droves (Birmingham Ladywood saw Labour's vote drop by 40%) and is waiting to be capitalised on by an actual organised group, and the Muslim population is steadily increasing. This will then lead to a backlash by some of the non-Muslim UK population (mostly white Britons), which will lead to some far-right party gaining ground. That's the grim future awaiting us.

*I definite Islamist as a minority of the Muslim population in the UK, who are broadly homophobic, misogynistic and illiberal.

You might be right, but this is what you're likely to get when the UK slavishly follows the US in allowing the Israeli State to get away with literal mass murder, and not for the first time. Enough.

by **navyblueshorts** Fri 05 Jul 2024, 11:58 am

Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
Spoiler:

Deeply disturbing stuff. And these divisions are only going to become more entrenched. This is the future of many towns and cities in England. Very dark times ahead, unless those in power get to grips with it (which they won't).
Had Starmer not made such a ham-fisted SNAFU of initial comments re. Israel/Gaza, it wouldn't have happened. It's a foreign policy issue close to some people's hearts; not a surprise.

The Muslim vote was leaving Labour before October 7th; the recent conflict just sped the process up.

Possibly, but that doesn't absolve Starmer etc from the awful handling of the issue. What did he expect the result of that to be?

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jul 2024, 12:05 pm

Political round up............. - Page 14 GRteFMXXMAAFBZE?format=jpg&name=small

Well done to this beautiful man. One bright spot at least.

by Mind the windows Tino. Fri 05 Jul 2024, 12:19 pm

Duty281 wrote:

Well done to this beautiful man. One bright spot at least.

Have you ever met him? I met him at some trader function about 15 years ago. He was a knob. Full of his own self importance and looked like he'd got dressed in a lost property cupboard.

I only exchanged a few words with him but his key note 'speech' was basically a political diatribe. Some people lapped it up, I just threw bread rolls at the people on my table.

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jul 2024, 12:29 pm

Mind the windows Tino. wrote:
Duty281 wrote:

Well done to this beautiful man. One bright spot at least.

Have you ever met him? I met him at some trader function about 15 years ago. He was a knob. Full of his own self importance and looked like he'd got dressed in a lost property cupboard.

I only exchanged a few words with him but his key note 'speech' was basically a political diatribe. Some people lapped it up, I just threw bread rolls at the people on my table.

Yes, many times. I've got along with him well. Maybe I'm just a knob as well? Very Happy

Though I agree he's very egotistical. In terms of fashion, I do remember he dressed utterly dismally and bizarrely sort of pre-2013ish. I think he won an award for it, actually. But he has since smartened up. Sort of.

by Mind the windows Tino. Fri 05 Jul 2024, 12:32 pm

I don't think you're a knob. Well, not all the time....

by Luckless Pedestrian Fri 05 Jul 2024, 12:43 pm

I think the comments / complaints around vote share and turnout will fade pretty quickly. It's not that they're not important, but the reality now is that Labour wanted to win a good majority, and they've done it. I don't think these issues somehow delegitimise that majority either, FPTP isn't a new setup, they're not the first party to have benefited from it (nor are Reform the first party to have suffered from it). The key now will be what Labour can achieve in this term. The floor is theirs.

For me, I'm very pleased that Plaid won four seats, and more than that, I'm so relieved that all the infighting and psychodrama of the Conservative party will no longer impact on the functioning / direction of the country. Even if that's only a temporary reprieve, I'll take it!

I'm just going to sit back and watch Political round up............. - Page 14 1347041234

Political round up............. - Page 14 1347041234

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jul 2024, 12:51 pm

Mind the windows Tino. wrote:I don't think you're a knob. Well, not all the time....

Love you too. kiss

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jul 2024, 12:58 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:I think the comments / complaints around vote share and turnout will fade pretty quickly. It's not that they're not important, but the reality now is that Labour wanted to win a good majority, and they've done it. I don't think these issues somehow delegitimise Labour's majority either, FPTP isn't not a new setup, they're not the first party to have benefited from it (nor are Reform the first party to have suffered from it). The key now will be what Labour can achieve in this term. The floor is theirs.

For me, I'm very pleased that Plaid won four seats, and more than that, I'm so relieved that all the infighting and psychodrama of the Conservative party will not longer impact on the functioning / direction of the country. Even if that's only a temporary reprieve, I'll take it!

I hope not. It's possibly the most egregious example of FPTP ever seen. Labour winning 63% of the seats from 34% of the vote. 34%! Lowest ever vote share for the leading party in a UK GE.

Considering how unpopular and disliked the Tories are, after 14 rubbish years, it's a stunning rejection of Starmer and Labour, coupled with a very low turnout, that is not replicated in the House totals.

PR is needed more urgently than ever.

Starmer will need to work miracles over the next five years to keep the ship afloat.

by Luckless Pedestrian Fri 05 Jul 2024, 1:04 pm

Just to be clear, I think FPTP is a terrible system, but that's not Labour's problem.

One other point: the left-wing vote has always been split, it's about time the right had a taste of it.

by Soul Requiem Fri 05 Jul 2024, 1:15 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Just to be clear, I think FPTP is a terrible system, but that's not Labour's problem.

One other point: the left-wing vote has always been split, it's about time the right had a taste of it.

It is the fault of both Labour and the Conservatives. Both have been happy to continue with FPTP knowing it benefits them and works against all of the smaller parties.

by **navyblueshorts** Fri 05 Jul 2024, 1:20 pm

I was already a bit happier today, but I've just noticed that Michael Fabricant and Thérèse Coffey got the boot. As I sit here typing this, can't stop grinning that The Bouffant has got kicked out. Superb!

by Samo Fri 05 Jul 2024, 1:29 pm

Soul Requiem wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Just to be clear, I think FPTP is a terrible system, but that's not Labour's problem.

One other point: the left-wing vote has always been split, it's about time the right had a taste of it.

It is the fault of both Labour and the Conservatives. Both have been happy to continue with FPTP knowing it benefits them and works against all of the smaller parties.

Unless we get another coalition like the ConDem one it aint changing anytime soon. The only parties who complain about it are the ones who lose under it, but if one of them were to suddenly win under it, they're not going to change a system that just helped them win a GE.

We had the chance to change things, and we didnt. I doubt it'll change any time soon.

by Samo Fri 05 Jul 2024, 1:34 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:I was already a bit happier today, but I've just noticed that Michael Fabricant and Thérèse Coffey got the boot. As I sit here typing this, can't stop grinning that The Bouffant has got kicked out. Superb!

JRM, Gullis, Clarke-Smith, Jenkyns, Ross, Fox... some proper horrid Kumquat we'll hopefully never have to hear from again.

by Luckless Pedestrian Fri 05 Jul 2024, 2:03 pm

I only just found out that Daniel Kawczynski lost his seat too. I'd forgotten about him.

by Luckless Pedestrian Fri 05 Jul 2024, 2:13 pm

Soul Requiem wrote:
Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Just to be clear, I think FPTP is a terrible system, but that's not Labour's problem.

One other point: the left-wing vote has always been split, it's about time the right had a taste of it.

It is the fault of both Labour and the Conservatives. Both have been happy to continue with FPTP knowing it benefits them and works against all of the smaller parties.

I'll rephrase it: I think FPTP is a terrible system, but it wasn't Labour's idea. They've just played the game as it is.

Something that's missing in all the talk about vote share is tactical voting. Plenty of Labour supporters will have voted Lib Dem, and vice versa, because it was the best way to get a Tory incumbent out under FPTP. Under a better system, support for a party could be measured by the number of votes cast for that party. Tactical voting muddies the waters, maybe more so in this election than ever before, but it doesn't seem to have been factored in.

by dummy_half Fri 05 Jul 2024, 2:13 pm

Samo wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:I was already a bit happier today, but I've just noticed that Michael Fabricant and Thérèse Coffey got the boot. As I sit here typing this, can't stop grinning that The Bouffant has got kicked out. Superb!

JRM, Gullis, Clarke-Smith, Jenkyns, Ross, Fox... some proper horrid Kumquat we'll hopefully never have to hear from again.

Unfortunately though, at the time I went to bed last night the only confirmed Conservative seat winner was Mark Francois...

I've got a list of 'politicians whose face you'd never tire of slapping' - OK, Farage is well clear in first, but he's certainly on the list along with Cruella and (to show this is not a purely party political thing) Ed Davey. Gove standing down ahs removed him from a high position.

by **navyblueshorts** Fri 05 Jul 2024, 2:27 pm

Samo wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:I was already a bit happier today, but I've just noticed that Michael Fabricant and Thérèse Coffey got the boot. As I sit here typing this, can't stop grinning that The Bouffant has got kicked out. Superb!

JRM, Gullis, Clarke-Smith, Jenkyns, Ross, Fox... some proper horrid Kumquat we'll hopefully never have to hear from again.

Not all good though - just noticed that Francois will be returning. Cretin. He and his ilk as as much to blame for the Tory omnishambles as anyone.

by **navyblueshorts** Fri 05 Jul 2024, 2:31 pm

dummy_half wrote:
Samo wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:I was already a bit happier today, but I've just noticed that Michael Fabricant and Thérèse Coffey got the boot. As I sit here typing this, can't stop grinning that The Bouffant has got kicked out. Superb!

JRM, Gullis, Clarke-Smith, Jenkyns, Ross, Fox... some proper horrid Kumquat we'll hopefully never have to hear from again.

Unfortunately though, at the time I went to bed last night the only confirmed Conservative seat winner was Mark Francois...

I've got a list of 'politicians whose face you'd never tire of slapping' - OK, Farage is well clear in first, but he's certainly on the list along with Cruella and (to show this is not a purely party political thing) Ed Davey. Gove standing down ahs removed him from a high position.

I'll give Davey a break as at least he seems human, instead of some sort of sewer-dwelling goblin.

Re. Francois, I can still remember him in the Westminster lobby when May was trying to get her deal through the Commons banging on about (and I paraphrase) how "his father fought the Germans on the D-Day beaches and didn't give in" and then blathered on about how he (Francois) "wouldn't give in to them now". Absolute cretin; and that's an insult to any cretins out there.

by TRUSSMAN66 Fri 05 Jul 2024, 3:04 pm

Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:Very pleased to see Truss gone. I do wonder if she will ever accept any blame for anything, but she may have got the message at last.
Reform must be disappointed, especially after the exit poll. Way down on vote share to the Tories, didn't get anywhere near achieving the goal of wiping them out, and only 4 MPs, same as the Greens. Can't see Farage being much of a voice in Parliament with so few behind him - even 10 or so MPs would have been enough to make a little noise. I reckon he'll probably lose interest in it, having ended up such a little fish. Not enough in it to satisfy his ego.
PR will never happen, as we all know. We've (not me, I've wanted PR for about 30 years) banged on for centuries about having the greatest democracy in the world - can't see it ever changing. It would be hypocritical for the right wing to suddenly want it, after not wanting it before i.e. when the Lib Dems were trying to get it.

Yes, Reform will be slightly disappointed.

On the positive side, they've got four MPs in and they've done better than UKIP in 2015. They've got a foothold and loads of second place seats they can target in 2029. That's the good news..

Reform will be more than happy......All about getting Farage and Tice in there and attacking from second place in 2029 and there are plenty of runner up seats......Greens will be happy the only "main" party that saw its percentage go up significantly and 4 mps to boot...Also second in quite a few seats for 2029.

Starmer got less votes than Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 which is a surprise and well done Corbyn not easy winning as an Indy..

Interesting recount in Basildon.........Reform, Labour and Conservatives all within 300 or so of eachother......Reform starting it just ahead.

by **navyblueshorts** Fri 05 Jul 2024, 4:17 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:Very pleased to see Truss gone. I do wonder if she will ever accept any blame for anything, but she may have got the message at last.
Reform must be disappointed, especially after the exit poll. Way down on vote share to the Tories, didn't get anywhere near achieving the goal of wiping them out, and only 4 MPs, same as the Greens. Can't see Farage being much of a voice in Parliament with so few behind him - even 10 or so MPs would have been enough to make a little noise. I reckon he'll probably lose interest in it, having ended up such a little fish. Not enough in it to satisfy his ego.
PR will never happen, as we all know. We've (not me, I've wanted PR for about 30 years) banged on for centuries about having the greatest democracy in the world - can't see it ever changing. It would be hypocritical for the right wing to suddenly want it, after not wanting it before i.e. when the Lib Dems were trying to get it.

Yes, Reform will be slightly disappointed.

On the positive side, they've got four MPs in and they've done better than UKIP in 2015. They've got a foothold and loads of second place seats they can target in 2029. That's the good news..

Reform will be more than happy......All about getting Farage and Tice in there and attacking from second place in 2029 and there are plenty of runner up seats......Greens will be happy the only "main" party that saw its percentage go up significantly and 4 mps to boot...Also second in quite a few seats for 2029.

Starmer got less votes than Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 which is a surprise and well done Corbyn not easy winning as an Indy..

Interesting recount in Basildon.........Reform, Labour and Conservatives all within 300 or so of eachother......Reform starting it just ahead.

Reform will have to come up with something better than the usual "Immigrants out!" schtick if they're to gain any lasting traction and/or say in anything.

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jul 2024, 4:31 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:Very pleased to see Truss gone. I do wonder if she will ever accept any blame for anything, but she may have got the message at last.
Reform must be disappointed, especially after the exit poll. Way down on vote share to the Tories, didn't get anywhere near achieving the goal of wiping them out, and only 4 MPs, same as the Greens. Can't see Farage being much of a voice in Parliament with so few behind him - even 10 or so MPs would have been enough to make a little noise. I reckon he'll probably lose interest in it, having ended up such a little fish. Not enough in it to satisfy his ego.
PR will never happen, as we all know. We've (not me, I've wanted PR for about 30 years) banged on for centuries about having the greatest democracy in the world - can't see it ever changing. It would be hypocritical for the right wing to suddenly want it, after not wanting it before i.e. when the Lib Dems were trying to get it.

Yes, Reform will be slightly disappointed.

On the positive side, they've got four MPs in and they've done better than UKIP in 2015. They've got a foothold and loads of second place seats they can target in 2029. That's the good news..

Reform will be more than happy......All about getting Farage and Tice in there and attacking from second place in 2029 and there are plenty of runner up seats......Greens will be happy the only "main" party that saw its percentage go up significantly and 4 mps to boot...Also second in quite a few seats for 2029.

Starmer got less votes than Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 which is a surprise and well done Corbyn not easy winning as an Indy..

Interesting recount in Basildon.........Reform, Labour and Conservatives all within 300 or so of eachother......Reform starting it just ahead.
Reform will have to come up with something better than the usual "Immigrants out!" schtick if they're to gain any lasting traction and/or say in anything.

They'll be the ones leading the charge for PR.

by GSC Fri 05 Jul 2024, 4:35 pm

Good luck with that one

by **Pr4wn** Fri 05 Jul 2024, 5:53 pm

Duty281 wrote:

Well done to this beautiful man. One bright spot at least.

We like betting odds on these boards.

50/1 for the people of Clacton to actually get any support from their MP, should the need arise.

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jul 2024, 5:59 pm

And Reform finish with five seats, as they win in South Basildon and East Thurrock by 98 votes (in a constituency with a near 40k turnout).

Five seats, 98 second places and 4.1 million votes. That's a good starting point. It's very fragile, but a good platform for 2029.

by GSC Fri 05 Jul 2024, 6:07 pm

Pr4wn wrote:
Duty281 wrote:

Well done to this beautiful man. One bright spot at least.

We like betting odds on these boards.

50/1 for the people of Clacton to actually get any support from their MP, should the need arise.

Has anyone told him he needs to declare his financial interests

by Samo Fri 05 Jul 2024, 6:11 pm

No real surprise appointments in Starmers cabinet so far. Happy to see Ian Murray named Scottish Secretary. He's held his seat since 2010 and was the only Labour MP that survived the 2015 SNP domination.

by GSC Fri 05 Jul 2024, 6:16 pm

All a bit too sensible this promoting people to the roles they shadowed for years

The Tories would've brought back George Osborne to be home secretary or something

by Pebbles Fri 05 Jul 2024, 6:53 pm

Duty281 wrote:

Well done to this beautiful man. One bright spot at least.

T0sser

by GSC Fri 05 Jul 2024, 7:47 pm

A lot of moaning about labours vote share, and yes their massive majority owed a lot to the Tory collapse and Reform splitting their vote.

But it was also a nearly perfect exhibition of electioneering and playing the system as devised. Corbyn piled up votes preaching to the converted in safe seats, in what turned out to be pretty useless majorities. From the outset here Labour were targeting seats you wouldn't consider marginals normally. And it paid off in seats rather than heavy majorities.

So yeah this vote share wouldn't really hold up under PR. But a rather pointless notion given this election wasn't fought under PR.

by Samo Fri 05 Jul 2024, 8:52 pm

Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:Very pleased to see Truss gone. I do wonder if she will ever accept any blame for anything, but she may have got the message at last.
Reform must be disappointed, especially after the exit poll. Way down on vote share to the Tories, didn't get anywhere near achieving the goal of wiping them out, and only 4 MPs, same as the Greens. Can't see Farage being much of a voice in Parliament with so few behind him - even 10 or so MPs would have been enough to make a little noise. I reckon he'll probably lose interest in it, having ended up such a little fish. Not enough in it to satisfy his ego.
PR will never happen, as we all know. We've (not me, I've wanted PR for about 30 years) banged on for centuries about having the greatest democracy in the world - can't see it ever changing. It would be hypocritical for the right wing to suddenly want it, after not wanting it before i.e. when the Lib Dems were trying to get it.

Yes, Reform will be slightly disappointed.

On the positive side, they've got four MPs in and they've done better than UKIP in 2015. They've got a foothold and loads of second place seats they can target in 2029. That's the good news..

Reform will be more than happy......All about getting Farage and Tice in there and attacking from second place in 2029 and there are plenty of runner up seats......Greens will be happy the only "main" party that saw its percentage go up significantly and 4 mps to boot...Also second in quite a few seats for 2029.

Starmer got less votes than Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 which is a surprise and well done Corbyn not easy winning as an Indy..

Interesting recount in Basildon.........Reform, Labour and Conservatives all within 300 or so of eachother......Reform starting it just ahead.
Reform will have to come up with something better than the usual "Immigrants out!" schtick if they're to gain any lasting traction and/or say in anything.

They'll be the ones leading the charge for PR.

We had a referendum on changing our voting system so we need to respect democracy.

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jul 2024, 9:21 pm

GSC wrote:A lot of moaning about labours vote share, and yes their massive majority owed a lot to the Tory collapse and Reform splitting their vote.

But it was also a nearly perfect exhibition of electioneering and playing the system as devised. Corbyn piled up votes preaching to the converted in safe seats, in what turned out to be pretty useless majorities. From the outset here Labour were targeting seats you wouldn't consider marginals normally. And it paid off in seats rather than heavy majorities.

So yeah this vote share wouldn't really hold up under PR. But a rather pointless notion given this election wasn't fought under PR.

I wouldn't pretend this was some clever strategy from Labour. Their campaign wasn't good. They started out polling in the low to mid 40s, and ended up polling in the high 30s to low 40s (Which was of course overvalued).

Corbyn piled up the votes in 2017 because of an absence of a genuine third/fourth party, which of course wasn't a thing here.

Labour have the reluctant landslide and an ice cold endorsement, with Farage's aid. Would also add the turnout was the second lowest in the last 100 years, indicating widespread apathy and discontent.

by Duty281 Fri 05 Jul 2024, 9:25 pm

Samo wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:Very pleased to see Truss gone. I do wonder if she will ever accept any blame for anything, but she may have got the message at last.
Reform must be disappointed, especially after the exit poll. Way down on vote share to the Tories, didn't get anywhere near achieving the goal of wiping them out, and only 4 MPs, same as the Greens. Can't see Farage being much of a voice in Parliament with so few behind him - even 10 or so MPs would have been enough to make a little noise. I reckon he'll probably lose interest in it, having ended up such a little fish. Not enough in it to satisfy his ego.
PR will never happen, as we all know. We've (not me, I've wanted PR for about 30 years) banged on for centuries about having the greatest democracy in the world - can't see it ever changing. It would be hypocritical for the right wing to suddenly want it, after not wanting it before i.e. when the Lib Dems were trying to get it.

Yes, Reform will be slightly disappointed.

On the positive side, they've got four MPs in and they've done better than UKIP in 2015. They've got a foothold and loads of second place seats they can target in 2029. That's the good news..

Reform will be more than happy......All about getting Farage and Tice in there and attacking from second place in 2029 and there are plenty of runner up seats......Greens will be happy the only "main" party that saw its percentage go up significantly and 4 mps to boot...Also second in quite a few seats for 2029.

Starmer got less votes than Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 which is a surprise and well done Corbyn not easy winning as an Indy..

Interesting recount in Basildon.........Reform, Labour and Conservatives all within 300 or so of eachother......Reform starting it just ahead.
Reform will have to come up with something better than the usual "Immigrants out!" schtick if they're to gain any lasting traction and/or say in anything.

They'll be the ones leading the charge for PR.

We had a referendum on changing our voting system so we need to respect democracy.

We had a referendum on AV v FPTP, not PR v FPTP.

AV is a failing pile of garbage and was rejected decisively. But there's been no referendum on PR, yet.

by lostinwales Sat 06 Jul 2024, 10:39 am

GSC wrote:A lot of moaning about labours vote share, and yes their massive majority owed a lot to the Tory collapse and Reform splitting their vote.

But it was also a nearly perfect exhibition of electioneering and playing the system as devised. Corbyn piled up votes preaching to the converted in safe seats, in what turned out to be pretty useless majorities. From the outset here Labour were targeting seats you wouldn't consider marginals normally. And it paid off in seats rather than heavy majorities.

So yeah this vote share wouldn't really hold up under PR. But a rather pointless notion given this election wasn't fought under PR.

Same with the LDs. Both parties gamed the system for maximum seats, although the real master is obviously PC with 4 seats from what? 200K votes?

Worth also adding that extreme parties get more popular during periods of chaos, and also the previous government did its best to suppress the wrong kind of voters and push the idea, deliberate or otherwise, that votes and voter opinions don't count.

So yes, it was a strange election with a poor turnout, and way too much money being pushed into social media by mysterious people backing a certain serial chancer. But Labour played the hand they had and played it well.

by GSC Sat 06 Jul 2024, 11:30 am

Yeah the lib dems played it perfectly too. Think they won every seat they campaigned in north of the border

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