Political round up.............

by Duty281 Fri 01 Mar 2024, 7:58 am

First topic message reminder :

Astonishing win in terms of margin. I was surprised that the ex-Labour candidate polled as low as 8%, but I guess word spread about his removal and he was viewed, effectively, as another independent.

Even if he wasn't removed, I think Galloway still wins, so it was a stroke of luck for Starmer in that he can ignore this defeat.

I thought Galloway would be out when the GE rolls around; now I'm not 100% sure. The issue of Gaza is hurting Labour amongst its once almost guaranteed Muslim vote.

I think this result shows that an Islamic party, if led by a brilliant campaigner, is a very viable option for the future. They could stand in areas where the Muslim population is relatively high and maybe win a couple of dozen seats at a GE, being similar to the SNP in terms of insurgency.

by **navyblueshorts** Mon 17 Jun 2024, 10:59 am

lostinwales wrote:Interesting on social media that the day after the Tories announced they had run out of money for such areas twitter went from being full of, shall we say, Tory bots to being full of Reform bots. It's all 'everybody is corrupt so I'm voting Reform', or 'I used to vote X but only Reform can save us'. It feels exactly like when there were endless posts going 'I voted remain but have changed my mind because of the way the EU has treated us'. Everything feels so manufactured, and more than a bit like the scenario we had pre brexit referendum. The fuss made over Farage and the strange people he finds to stand as candidates (before they get kicked out because of animal abuse, corruption etc) is just unreal, given they had 1 MP (elected under a different flag) and 10 whole councillors. Compare and contrast with Lib Dem coverage, green party etc.

Somewhere along the way there is some money behind Reform, and that could be coming from anywhere.

Try here, for starters....

by Duty281 Mon 17 Jun 2024, 11:12 am

Donations for the first week of the election campaign...

Labour £926k; Tories £574k; Lib Dems £455k; Reform £140k

BuT WHerE is REforM'S moNEy cOMing FRom?!!!!!!!

by Samo Mon 17 Jun 2024, 11:23 am

£140k in donations but Tice is on record saying they spend £1.5m annually. So you're £1.36m short.

by **navyblueshorts** Mon 17 Jun 2024, 12:07 pm

Duty281 wrote:Donations for the first week of the election campaign...

Labour £926k; Tories £574k; Lib Dems £455k; Reform £140k

BuT WHerE is REforM'S moNEy cOMing FRom?!!!!!!!

Nice try, but the rest of us are probably asking this question more broadly than the narrow official donations since the start of the current GE campaign.

by Duty281 Mon 17 Jun 2024, 12:24 pm

navyblueshorts wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Donations for the first week of the election campaign...

Labour £926k; Tories £574k; Lib Dems £455k; Reform £140k

BuT WHerE is REforM'S moNEy cOMing FRom?!!!!!!!
Nice try, but the rest of us are probably asking this question more broadly than the narrow official donations since the start of the current GE campaign.

OK, so are you as interested in the combined £87m donated to the Lib/Lab/Con trio in 2023, or just the tiddlers that Reform get in comparison?

by Duty281 Mon 17 Jun 2024, 2:29 pm

Reform's manifesto/contract highlights:

- Freeze non essential immigration; Bar student dependents; Employer immigration tax to incentivise hiring British workers; Deport foreign criminals; stop the boats; Deport child grooming gang offenders with dual nationality
- Cut foreign aid by 50%
- Improve efficiency of HMRC
- Lift the tax threshold to £20k; Scrap VAT on energy bills; Lift the profit threshold for corporation tax to £100k, and lower corporation tax to 20%; Zero basic tax to be paid by frontline health workers for three years
- Speed up the process for building houses on brownfield sites
- New NHS voucher scheme
- Promote clean nuclear power
- 8,000 new police officers every year; get them on the street; increase stop and search; expand prisons
- Scrap interest on student loans
- Increase army recruitment and defence spending
- Replace the House of Lords with a smaller, elected chamber; Reform postal voting; Implement PR; A British Bill of Rights
- Scrap the TV License
- St George's Day and St David's Day to be made a bank holiday

Cheers, Nige. thumbsup

by **superflyweight** Mon 17 Jun 2024, 3:20 pm

Duty281 wrote:Reform's manifesto/contract highlights:

- Freeze non essential immigration; Bar student dependents; Employer immigration tax to incentivise hiring British workers; Deport foreign criminals; stop the boats; Deport child grooming gang offenders with dual nationality
- Cut foreign aid by 50%
- Improve efficiency of HMRC
- Lift the tax threshold to £20k; Scrap VAT on energy bills; Lift the profit threshold for corporation tax to £100k, and lower corporation tax to 20%; Zero basic tax to be paid by frontline health workers for three years
- Speed up the process for building houses on brownfield sites
- New NHS voucher scheme
- Promote clean nuclear power
- 8,000 new police officers every year; get them on the street; increase stop and search; expand prisons
- Scrap interest on student loans
- Increase army recruitment and defence spending
- Replace the House of Lords with a smaller, elected chamber; Reform postal voting; Implement PR; A British Bill of Rights
- Scrap the TV License
- St George's Day and St David's Day to be made a bank holiday

Cheers, Nige.

Yeah, if only there was a recent example of the economic carnage that can be caused by unfunded tax cuts.

by GSC Mon 17 Jun 2024, 5:56 pm

To be fair it's not like anyone was expecting Nige to have a plan of any substance

by TRUSSMAN66 Mon 17 Jun 2024, 6:45 pm

superflyweight wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Reform's manifesto/contract highlights:

- Freeze non essential immigration; Bar student dependents; Employer immigration tax to incentivise hiring British workers; Deport foreign criminals; stop the boats; Deport child grooming gang offenders with dual nationality
- Cut foreign aid by 50%
- Improve efficiency of HMRC
- Lift the tax threshold to £20k; Scrap VAT on energy bills; Lift the profit threshold for corporation tax to £100k, and lower corporation tax to 20%; Zero basic tax to be paid by frontline health workers for three years
- Speed up the process for building houses on brownfield sites
- New NHS voucher scheme
- Promote clean nuclear power
- 8,000 new police officers every year; get them on the street; increase stop and search; expand prisons
- Scrap interest on student loans
- Increase army recruitment and defence spending
- Replace the House of Lords with a smaller, elected chamber; Reform postal voting; Implement PR; A British Bill of Rights
- Scrap the TV License
- St George's Day and St David's Day to be made a bank holiday

Cheers, Nige.

Yeah, if only there was a recent example of the economic carnage that can be caused by unfunded tax cuts.

Maybe he is going to "grow" the economy like Labour !!!

I see "electcalculus" sample days 5-13 June.......Has Galloway 9 points up in Rochdale.....An estimate not a projection but Galloway is 3-1......

So value in that..

by TRUSSMAN66 Mon 17 Jun 2024, 7:27 pm

Redfield/Wilton......Con down to 24 seats....

Lab 43 +1
Ref 18 +1
Con 18 =
Lib 12 -1

by Duty281 Mon 17 Jun 2024, 7:35 pm

Nice poll that one for Reform. Level with the Tories for the first time with Redfield and likely to overtake them with the manifesto bounce. The poll also showed Farage was more favoured to be leader of the opposition than Sunak and Davey.

Reform are also up four points with Deltapoll, but MoreinCommon are diligently recording relative highs for the Tories at 25%.

No appearance on ITV's Welsh debate last night for Reform, despite being more popular than Plaid; and no appearance on QT on the 20th, although the tiny regional SNP party (who are not applicable for the vast majority of the population) will be there, as will the Lib Dems (who have polled behind Reform every time for the last 41 polls). And some think Reform get too much coverage...

by TRUSSMAN66 Mon 17 Jun 2024, 8:03 pm

Lee Anderson Ashfield is one to watch.....Started a rank outsider and now he is 11/10 with most bookmakers....

The ex Tory nutjob is finding some comfort with the electorate there..

by king_carlos Mon 17 Jun 2024, 8:06 pm

IFS wrote:Reform UK proposes tax cuts that it estimates would cost nearly £90bn per year, and spending increases of £50bn per year. It claims that it would pay for these through £150bn per year of reductions in other spending, covering public services, debt interest and working-age benefits.

This would represent a big cut to the size of the state. Regardless of the pros and cons of shrinking the state, or of any of their specific measures, the package as a whole is problematic. Spending reductions would save less than stated, and the tax cuts would cost more than stated, by a margin of tens of billions of pounds per year. Meanwhile the spending increases would cost more than stated if they are to achieve their objectives …

Even with the extremely optimistic assumptions about how much economic growth would increase, the sums in this manifesto do not add up. Whilst Reform’s manifesto gives a clear sense of priority, a government could only implement parts of this package, or would need to find other ways to help pay for it, which would mean losers not specified.

The widespread apathy to politics in this country really isn't helped by manifesto's basically just being a long list of s**t that won't feasibly happen.

by Duty281 Mon 17 Jun 2024, 8:30 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Lee Anderson Ashfield is one to watch.....Started a rank outsider and now he is 11/10 with most bookmakers....

The ex Tory nutjob is finding some comfort with the electorate there..

Not sure Anderson was ever a rank outsider, and certainly with the return of Farage as leader his chances are now very strong.

As I mentioned earlier, Survation are predicting Reform to win seven seats:

North West Norfolk (10/1 with the bookmakers)
Great Yarmouth (7/2)
Mid Leicestershire (12/1)
Ashfield (13/8; but there's a strong independent candidate so MRP analysis will struggle)
Clacton (1/5)
Exmouth and Exeter East (16/1)
South Suffolk (20/1)

There's some real long shots there, which further indicates to me that Survation are wide of the mark, but they might be geniuses. They're saying Reform have a 70% chance of winning North West Norfolk, but the bookmakers putting it at 10/1...

by lostinwales Mon 17 Jun 2024, 10:26 pm

Duty281 wrote:Donations for the first week of the election campaign...

Labour £926k; Tories £574k; Lib Dems £455k; Reform £140k

BuT WHerE is REforM'S moNEy cOMing FRom?!!!!!!!

They are campaigning in a very particular way, relying on bots and trolls with the gullible slowly being dragged in by being persuaded that loads of other people are also going to vote the same way. It's expensive

by **navyblueshorts** Tue 18 Jun 2024, 9:49 am

Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Donations for the first week of the election campaign...

Labour £926k; Tories £574k; Lib Dems £455k; Reform £140k

BuT WHerE is REforM'S moNEy cOMing FRom?!!!!!!!
Nice try, but the rest of us are probably asking this question more broadly than the narrow official donations since the start of the current GE campaign.

OK, so are you as interested in the combined £87m donated to the Lib/Lab/Con trio in 2023, or just the tiddlers that Reform get in comparison?

I'm interested in knowing whom the backers of the various parties are. Stop the whataboutery - this was about Reform, but happy to extend to the bent Tories as well if you like?

Since you appear to ignore stuff you don't like, I'll repost here. Reform are bent; it's just a matter of time before it all comes out.

by Duty281 Tue 18 Jun 2024, 9:56 am

navyblueshorts wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Donations for the first week of the election campaign...

Labour £926k; Tories £574k; Lib Dems £455k; Reform £140k

BuT WHerE is REforM'S moNEy cOMing FRom?!!!!!!!
Nice try, but the rest of us are probably asking this question more broadly than the narrow official donations since the start of the current GE campaign.

OK, so are you as interested in the combined £87m donated to the Lib/Lab/Con trio in 2023, or just the tiddlers that Reform get in comparison?
I'm interested in knowing whom the backers of the various parties are. Stop the whataboutery - this was about Reform, but happy to extend to the bent Tories as well if you like?

Since you appear to ignore stuff you don't like, I'll repost here. The 'tiddlers' that Reform gets? Yeah, right. Not only 'tiddlers', but shady 'tiddlers' at that.

Yes, tiddlers.

The Tories received £57m in donations in 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. Labour £40m. Lib Dems £11m. SNP and Greens just over a million. Reform? £280k.

Tiddlers.

by **navyblueshorts** Tue 18 Jun 2024, 9:57 am

king_carlos wrote:
IFS wrote:Reform UK proposes tax cuts that it estimates would cost nearly £90bn per year, and spending increases of £50bn per year. It claims that it would pay for these through £150bn per year of reductions in other spending, covering public services, debt interest and working-age benefits.

This would represent a big cut to the size of the state. Regardless of the pros and cons of shrinking the state, or of any of their specific measures, the package as a whole is problematic. Spending reductions would save less than stated, and the tax cuts would cost more than stated, by a margin of tens of billions of pounds per year. Meanwhile the spending increases would cost more than stated if they are to achieve their objectives …

Even with the extremely optimistic assumptions about how much economic growth would increase, the sums in this manifesto do not add up. Whilst Reform’s manifesto gives a clear sense of priority, a government could only implement parts of this package, or would need to find other ways to help pay for it, which would mean losers not specified.

The widespread apathy to politics in this country really isn't helped by manifesto's basically just being a long list of s**t that won't feasibly happen.

Manifestos should be, at least in some way, a legally binding document.

by **navyblueshorts** Tue 18 Jun 2024, 9:59 am

lostinwales wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Donations for the first week of the election campaign...

Labour £926k; Tories £574k; Lib Dems £455k; Reform £140k

BuT WHerE is REforM'S moNEy cOMing FRom?!!!!!!!

They are campaigning in a very particular way, relying on bots and trolls with the gullible slowly being dragged in by being persuaded that loads of other people are also going to vote the same way. It's expensive

We all know what they did w/ the Brexit referendum, even if no-one has been had up for it. They're doing the same now.

by Duty281 Tue 18 Jun 2024, 10:05 am

navyblueshorts wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Donations for the first week of the election campaign...

Labour £926k; Tories £574k; Lib Dems £455k; Reform £140k

BuT WHerE is REforM'S moNEy cOMing FRom?!!!!!!!

They are campaigning in a very particular way, relying on bots and trolls with the gullible slowly being dragged in by being persuaded that loads of other people are also going to vote the same way. It's expensive
We all know what they did w/ the Brexit referendum, even if no-one has been had up for it. They're doing the same now.

Trying to overcome spending and media disadvantages?

by TRUSSMAN66 Tue 18 Jun 2024, 11:33 am

Duty281 wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Lee Anderson Ashfield is one to watch.....Started a rank outsider and now he is 11/10 with most bookmakers....

The ex Tory nutjob is finding some comfort with the electorate there..

Not sure Anderson was ever a rank outsider, and certainly with the return of Farage as leader his chances are now very strong.

As I mentioned earlier, Survation are predicting Reform to win seven seats:

...

Anderson was 4/1 two weeeks ago and Labour something like 4/9.....I know because like all decent people I want to see the back of the Cretin so I looked Ashfield up.

Survation poll suggests "Don't knows" are breaking for Labour close to 2 to 1 over the Cons....But I do expect some movement to Con eventually but like mentioned before Reform is the stinger.....If they remain close it's a bonfire.

by Samo Tue 18 Jun 2024, 11:44 am

Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Donations for the first week of the election campaign...

Labour £926k; Tories £574k; Lib Dems £455k; Reform £140k

BuT WHerE is REforM'S moNEy cOMing FRom?!!!!!!!

They are campaigning in a very particular way, relying on bots and trolls with the gullible slowly being dragged in by being persuaded that loads of other people are also going to vote the same way. It's expensive
We all know what they did w/ the Brexit referendum, even if no-one has been had up for it. They're doing the same now.

Trying to overcome spending and media disadvantages?

by Luckless Pedestrian Tue 18 Jun 2024, 12:06 pm

Duty281 wrote:Reform's manifesto/contract highlights:

- Freeze non essential immigration; Bar student dependents; Employer immigration tax to incentivise hiring British workers; Deport foreign criminals; stop the boats; Deport child grooming gang offenders with dual nationality
- Cut foreign aid by 50%
- Improve efficiency of HMRC
- Lift the tax threshold to £20k; Scrap VAT on energy bills; Lift the profit threshold for corporation tax to £100k, and lower corporation tax to 20%; Zero basic tax to be paid by frontline health workers for three years
- Speed up the process for building houses on brownfield sites
- New NHS voucher scheme
- Promote clean nuclear power
- 8,000 new police officers every year; get them on the street; increase stop and search; expand prisons
- Scrap interest on student loans
- Increase army recruitment and defence spending
- Replace the House of Lords with a smaller, elected chamber; Reform postal voting; Implement PR; A British Bill of Rights
- Scrap the TV License
- St George's Day and St David's Day to be made a bank holiday

Cheers, Nige.

Isn't feasibility a factor here at all? How do you propose to force countries of origin to take these people? How to you propose to force France to accept the return of people crossing the Channel? How do you expect businesses to survive if you cut their workforces overnight?

This is pie in the sky, I'm sorry. These are complex problems, they don't have simple solutions.

by TRUSSMAN66 Tue 18 Jun 2024, 12:13 pm

Probably be bribing the coastguards to sink the boats...

by Duty281 Tue 18 Jun 2024, 12:22 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Reform's manifesto/contract highlights:

- Freeze non essential immigration; Bar student dependents; Employer immigration tax to incentivise hiring British workers; Deport foreign criminals; stop the boats; Deport child grooming gang offenders with dual nationality
- Cut foreign aid by 50%
- Improve efficiency of HMRC
- Lift the tax threshold to £20k; Scrap VAT on energy bills; Lift the profit threshold for corporation tax to £100k, and lower corporation tax to 20%; Zero basic tax to be paid by frontline health workers for three years
- Speed up the process for building houses on brownfield sites
- New NHS voucher scheme
- Promote clean nuclear power
- 8,000 new police officers every year; get them on the street; increase stop and search; expand prisons
- Scrap interest on student loans
- Increase army recruitment and defence spending
- Replace the House of Lords with a smaller, elected chamber; Reform postal voting; Implement PR; A British Bill of Rights
- Scrap the TV License
- St George's Day and St David's Day to be made a bank holiday

Cheers, Nige.

Isn't feasibility a factor here at all? How do you propose to force countries of origin to take these people? How to you propose to force France to accept the return of people crossing the Channel? How do you expect businesses to survive if you cut their workforces overnight?

This is pie in the sky, I'm sorry. These are complex problems, they don't have simple solutions.

Business can go and hire British workers, rather than hunt for cheap foreign labour. People who cross the channel can be towed back to the northern coast of France (do it again and again until there's no more crossings and no more deaths), and processing centres can be set up in France. The UK already deports people (around 5,000-10,000 a year) forcibly, though the numbers have come down under the Tories compared to New Labour (I think), this is just an expansion of deportation numbers - so do it the same way that deportations are currently done, I guess.

by Luckless Pedestrian Tue 18 Jun 2024, 12:28 pm

If it was as easy as that, don't you think the Tories would have done it by now?

by Duty281 Tue 18 Jun 2024, 12:33 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:If it was as easy as that, don't you think the Tories would have done it by now?

The Tories favour the policy of mass immigration and they have little interest in deporting foreign criminals. They've made the asylum and immigration systems of the UK the most open they've ever been in the country's history.

If you're referring to the boats, they've just shown zero interest/competence in solving this issue and only have only offered a token idea of Rwanda (which they know will never be followed through) in an effort to motivate their voting base.

Why do you think taking the boats back to France and setting up joint processing centres in France is a non-goer?

by Luckless Pedestrian Tue 18 Jun 2024, 12:38 pm

Are the French obliged to accept the return of these boats? They're not carrying French citizens. This is a shared problem, we can't wash our hands of responsibility.

UK centres in France to assess asylum claims, I'm all for that.

by Duty281 Tue 18 Jun 2024, 12:50 pm

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Are the French obliged to accept the return of these boats? They're not carrying French citizens. This is a shared problem, we can't wash our hands of responsibility.

UK centres in France to assess asylum claims, I'm all for that.

By the same token, are the British obliged to accept these boats? They're not carrying British citizens. The French wash their hands of responsibility every time one of these boats leaves the north of their country, and then it becomes our issue.

Stop the boats crossing and stop the deaths. Then work out the numbers we can take in for asylum each year based on a calculation of resources - rather than adopting a come one come all policy which has been favoured and has led to us running out of room and needing to put asylum seekers on barges or in hotels - and apply a more rigorous standard to who gets granted refuge.

An added idea might also be to boost the salaries and training of the asylum decision makers, people who currently get paid under 30k to do a very important role (!), and remove the indirect incentive that they have to grant asylum (refusing someone is a hell of a lot more work than accepting someone), whilst also working on ways to retain them in that role for longer periods (there's currently a very high turnover) to boost expertise.

by TRUSSMAN66 Tue 18 Jun 2024, 1:00 pm

...I like the idea of low paid workers having to reach 20,000 before they get taxed....

Rents...Food and everything else isn't cheap for people these days and as Roosevelt noted lower paid workers spend and rich people put away.....So the money goes back in to the economy any way...

The rest of their "Contract" is pie in the sky..

by TRUSSMAN66 Tue 18 Jun 2024, 1:55 pm

Deltapoll..

Lab 46 =
Con 19 -2
Ref..16 +4
Lib..10 +1

Looking at 50 Liberal gains on this poll....

by the-goon Tue 18 Jun 2024, 3:12 pm

Samo wrote:Another Reform candidate being stood down after troublesome views have came out. Who’d’ve thought that a ~~political party~~ private company pretending to be a political party founded and led by a racist fascist would be attracting such troublesome people. Its a mystery.

A racist and a fascist? A serious accusation indeed, you know it is because the left never use those words often at all...

I think you forgot all "phobes" too. Really make your point.

by Duty281 Tue 18 Jun 2024, 3:29 pm

Duty281 wrote:and no appearance on QT on the 20th, although the tiny regional SNP party (who are not applicable for the vast majority of the population) will be there, as will the Lib Dems (who have polled behind Reform every time for the last 41 polls). And some think Reform get too much coverage...

Remedied, thankfully.

On Tuesday, the BBC announced it will add a Question Time leaders’ special featuring representatives from Reform UK and the Green Party, to be broadcast on the evening of June 28 with Bruce as host.

Mr Farage said he was “pleased” the BBC “acknowledge” the rising support for his party, while renewing his demand to be included in the broadcaster’s June 26 head-to-head debate between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/bbc-adds-time-show-reform-123508030.html?guccounter=1

by Samo Tue 18 Jun 2024, 3:34 pm

the-goon wrote:
Samo wrote:Another Reform candidate being stood down after troublesome views have came out. Who’d’ve thought that a ~~political party~~ private company pretending to be a political party founded and led by a racist fascist would be attracting such troublesome people. Its a mystery.

A racist and a fascist? A serious accusation indeed, you know it is because the left never use those words often at all...

I think you forgot all "phobes" too. Really make your point.

His racism and fascism are well documented at this point.

by lostinwales Tue 18 Jun 2024, 4:43 pm

Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Donations for the first week of the election campaign...

Labour £926k; Tories £574k; Lib Dems £455k; Reform £140k

BuT WHerE is REforM'S moNEy cOMing FRom?!!!!!!!

They are campaigning in a very particular way, relying on bots and trolls with the gullible slowly being dragged in by being persuaded that loads of other people are also going to vote the same way. It's expensive
We all know what they did w/ the Brexit referendum, even if no-one has been had up for it. They're doing the same now.

Trying to overcome spending and media disadvantages?

I thought you were smarter than that.

by lostinwales Tue 18 Jun 2024, 4:45 pm

the-goon wrote:
Samo wrote:Another Reform candidate being stood down after troublesome views have came out. Who’d’ve thought that a ~~political party~~ private company pretending to be a political party founded and led by a racist fascist would be attracting such troublesome people. Its a mystery.

A racist and a fascist? A serious accusation indeed, you know it is because the left never use those words often at all...

I think you forgot all "phobes" too. Really make your point.

I guess where you see people on the political spectrum is relative to where the observer stands.

by Duty281 Tue 18 Jun 2024, 4:56 pm

lostinwales wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Donations for the first week of the election campaign...

Labour £926k; Tories £574k; Lib Dems £455k; Reform £140k

BuT WHerE is REforM'S moNEy cOMing FRom?!!!!!!!

They are campaigning in a very particular way, relying on bots and trolls with the gullible slowly being dragged in by being persuaded that loads of other people are also going to vote the same way. It's expensive
We all know what they did w/ the Brexit referendum, even if no-one has been had up for it. They're doing the same now.

Trying to overcome spending and media disadvantages?

I thought you were smarter than that.

Remain spent £19.3 million. Leave spent £13.3 million. Nearly 50% more than Leave. If we add in Cameron's leaflet, which said people should vote Remain, that's another £9m that can be added to the Remain side.

30 British newspapers/magazines endorsed Remain, compared to 14 for Leave.

Add in the big international organisations, multinational corporations, the majority of the political class etc....Leave were at a huge disadvantage.

Reform are at the same disadvantage, with biased coverage, inferior funding and getting blasted by the usual suspects at every point and turn.

by Samo Tue 18 Jun 2024, 5:03 pm

Duty281 wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Donations for the first week of the election campaign...

Labour £926k; Tories £574k; Lib Dems £455k; Reform £140k

BuT WHerE is REforM'S moNEy cOMing FRom?!!!!!!!

They are campaigning in a very particular way, relying on bots and trolls with the gullible slowly being dragged in by being persuaded that loads of other people are also going to vote the same way. It's expensive
We all know what they did w/ the Brexit referendum, even if no-one has been had up for it. They're doing the same now.

Trying to overcome spending and media disadvantages?

I thought you were smarter than that.

Remain spent £19.3 million. Leave spent £13.3 million. Nearly 50% more than Leave. If we add in Cameron's leaflet, which said people should vote Remain, that's another £9m that can be added to the Remain side.

30 British newspapers/magazines endorsed Remain, compared to 14 for Leave.

Add in the big international organisations, multinational corporations, the majority of the political class etc....Leave were at a huge disadvantage.

Reform are at the same disadvantage, with biased coverage, inferior funding and getting blasted by the usual suspects at every point and turn.

Name the newspapers. Leave might have only been backed by 14, but included in those 14 are The Mail, The Express, The Times, The Telegraph and The Sun - 5 of the most popular newspapers anywhere in the world, never mind just in Britain. You also need to compare readership numbers to get an accurate representation. This also shows that the highest % of articles across all newspapers in the lead up to the referendum were pro Leave.

by Duty281 Tue 18 Jun 2024, 5:07 pm

Ipsos with an MRP today - Labour 453, Tories 115, LDs 38, SNP 15, Greens 3, Reform 3.

That's a high for the Greens, would be curious to see which ones when the data is released. Tories at 115 is in between Survation and YouGov's polling. Quite low for the SNP and LDs compared to the other two.

by Duty281 Tue 18 Jun 2024, 5:17 pm

Samo wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Donations for the first week of the election campaign...

Labour £926k; Tories £574k; Lib Dems £455k; Reform £140k

BuT WHerE is REforM'S moNEy cOMing FRom?!!!!!!!

They are campaigning in a very particular way, relying on bots and trolls with the gullible slowly being dragged in by being persuaded that loads of other people are also going to vote the same way. It's expensive
We all know what they did w/ the Brexit referendum, even if no-one has been had up for it. They're doing the same now.

Trying to overcome spending and media disadvantages?

I thought you were smarter than that.

Remain spent £19.3 million. Leave spent £13.3 million. Nearly 50% more than Leave. If we add in Cameron's leaflet, which said people should vote Remain, that's another £9m that can be added to the Remain side.

30 British newspapers/magazines endorsed Remain, compared to 14 for Leave.

Add in the big international organisations, multinational corporations, the majority of the political class etc....Leave were at a huge disadvantage.

Reform are at the same disadvantage, with biased coverage, inferior funding and getting blasted by the usual suspects at every point and turn.

Name the newspapers. Leave might have only been backed by 14, but included in those 14 are The Mail, The Express, The Times, The Telegraph and The Sun - 5 of the most popular newspapers anywhere in the world, never mind just in Britain. You also need to compare readership numbers to get an accurate representation. This also shows that the highest % of articles across all newspapers in the lead up to the referendum were pro Leave.

The Times backed Remain, as did the Mirror which is one of the more popular papers. Could add for balance the Sunday Times backed Leave, but equally the Mail on Sunday backed Remain.

In terms of circulation figures in 2016, the Evening Standard and the Mirror would be in the top five for newspapers, which both backed Remain. Add in as well the Financial Times, Economist, New Statesman and the Independent, plus the Guardian. Some big publications there. As well as the Guardian.

This is just one small facet of the Remain campaign's resource dominance, though, and not as significant as their huge funding advantages and the backing they got from the vast majority of big businesses and influential people.

by **Pr4wn** Tue 18 Jun 2024, 5:32 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Samo wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Donations for the first week of the election campaign...

Labour £926k; Tories £574k; Lib Dems £455k; Reform £140k

BuT WHerE is REforM'S moNEy cOMing FRom?!!!!!!!

They are campaigning in a very particular way, relying on bots and trolls with the gullible slowly being dragged in by being persuaded that loads of other people are also going to vote the same way. It's expensive
We all know what they did w/ the Brexit referendum, even if no-one has been had up for it. They're doing the same now.

Trying to overcome spending and media disadvantages?

I thought you were smarter than that.

Remain spent £19.3 million. Leave spent £13.3 million. Nearly 50% more than Leave. If we add in Cameron's leaflet, which said people should vote Remain, that's another £9m that can be added to the Remain side.

30 British newspapers/magazines endorsed Remain, compared to 14 for Leave.

Add in the big international organisations, multinational corporations, the majority of the political class etc....Leave were at a huge disadvantage.

Reform are at the same disadvantage, with biased coverage, inferior funding and getting blasted by the usual suspects at every point and turn.

Name the newspapers. Leave might have only been backed by 14, but included in those 14 are The Mail, The Express, The Times, The Telegraph and The Sun - 5 of the most popular newspapers anywhere in the world, never mind just in Britain. You also need to compare readership numbers to get an accurate representation. This also shows that the highest % of articles across all newspapers in the lead up to the referendum were pro Leave.

The Times backed Remain, as did the Mirror which is one of the more popular papers. Could add for balance the Sunday Times backed Leave, but equally the Mail on Sunday backed Remain.

In terms of circulation figures in 2016, the Evening Standard and the Mirror would be in the top five for newspapers, which both backed Remain. Add in as well the Financial Times, Economist, New Statesman and the Independent, plus the Guardian. Some big publications there. As well as the Guardian.

This is just one small facet of the Remain campaign's resource dominance, though, and not as significant as their huge funding advantages and the backing they got from the vast majority of big businesses and influential people.

The straw clutching is real with this one.

by **Pr4wn** Tue 18 Jun 2024, 5:35 pm

The Reform "contract" is, very clearly, a bunch of unfunded, unworkable nonsense. We all know that Duty was a big fan of the last PM that did her best to bankrupt the country and it was, of course, the fault of some dastardly cabal that the master plan didn't work out.

It'll be the same if any of this garbage gets implemented. These are not serious people with serious policies. They're people that, just like Jeremy Corbyn, live for being in opposition and moaning about the status quo, without presenting any real, feasible solutions. Just pie in the sky populism.

by Duty281 Tue 18 Jun 2024, 6:07 pm

Duty281 wrote:Ipsos with an MRP today - Labour 453, Tories 115, LDs 38, SNP 15, Greens 3, Reform 3.

That's a high for the Greens, would be curious to see which ones when the data is released. Tories at 115 is in between Survation and YouGov's polling. Quite low for the SNP and LDs compared to the other two.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls/ipsos-election-mrp

The implied vote shares from this are Reform at 12% and Tories at 25%, which may be a bit low and a bit high respectively.

The three that they say Reform will win are Clacton, Ashfield and NW Leicestershire. Ashfield, obviously, difficult to predict. NW Leicestershire is a 28/1 shot with the bookmakers. It's different to Mid Leicestershire, which is the one Survation think Reform could take.

Greens are backed by this MRP in Bristol Central, Waveney Valley (9/1) and North Herefordshire (8/1), but not in Brighton where they're projected to lose.

Just over 100 seats which are too tight to call, mainly ones that are narrowly Tory but could swing to Labour.

by TRUSSMAN66 Tue 18 Jun 2024, 6:13 pm

Duty281 wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Ipsos with an MRP today - Labour 453, Tories 115, LDs 38, SNP 15, Greens 3, Reform 3.

That's a high for the Greens, would be curious to see which ones when the data is released. Tories at 115 is in between Survation and YouGov's polling. Quite low for the SNP and LDs compared to the other two.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls/ipsos-election-mrp

The implied vote shares from this are Reform at 12% and Tories at 25%, which may be a bit low and a bit high respectively.

The three that they say Reform will win are Clacton, Ashfield and NW Leicestershire. Ashfield, obviously, difficult to predict. NW Leicestershire is a 28/1 shot with the bookmakers. It's different to Mid Leicestershire, which is the one Survation think Reform could take.

Greens are backed by this MRP in Bristol Central, Waveney Valley (9/1) and North Herefordshire (8/1), but not in Brighton where they're projected to lose.

Just over 100 seats which are too tight to call, mainly ones that are narrowly Tory but could swing to Labour.

I don't buy the projection at all.......No one gives the Greens a prayer in North Herefordshire....Reform won't win in NW Leicestershire either..

115 a little high for the Tories and the 13 point difference with Reform looks out of whack....Outlier.

by TRUSSMAN66 Tue 18 Jun 2024, 7:36 pm

MRP interesting seats....

Waveney Valley has Greens 33% vs Reform 29%.....fighting it out.

Which is funny because Con is favorite with Labour 2nd with the oddsmakers....

Liz Truss safe SW Norfolk seat.....Con 31 v Reform 30.......????

Lee Anderson in Ashfield.......Ref 61 v Lab 22 ???????...Anderson is second favourite in that seat.

It's an interesting poll for sure.

by Duty281 Tue 18 Jun 2024, 10:06 pm

Yeah, it's definitely a bit wild! Couldn't help but laugh that they're forecasting Nigel to get *52%* in Clacton.

by the-goon Wed 19 Jun 2024, 8:00 am

Duty281 wrote:
Samo wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Donations for the first week of the election campaign...

Labour £926k; Tories £574k; Lib Dems £455k; Reform £140k

BuT WHerE is REforM'S moNEy cOMing FRom?!!!!!!!

They are campaigning in a very particular way, relying on bots and trolls with the gullible slowly being dragged in by being persuaded that loads of other people are also going to vote the same way. It's expensive
We all know what they did w/ the Brexit referendum, even if no-one has been had up for it. They're doing the same now.

Trying to overcome spending and media disadvantages?

I thought you were smarter than that.

Remain spent £19.3 million. Leave spent £13.3 million. Nearly 50% more than Leave. If we add in Cameron's leaflet, which said people should vote Remain, that's another £9m that can be added to the Remain side.

30 British newspapers/magazines endorsed Remain, compared to 14 for Leave.

Add in the big international organisations, multinational corporations, the majority of the political class etc....Leave were at a huge disadvantage.

Reform are at the same disadvantage, with biased coverage, inferior funding and getting blasted by the usual suspects at every point and turn.

Name the newspapers. Leave might have only been backed by 14, but included in those 14 are The Mail, The Express, The Times, The Telegraph and The Sun - 5 of the most popular newspapers anywhere in the world, never mind just in Britain. You also need to compare readership numbers to get an accurate representation. This also shows that the highest % of articles across all newspapers in the lead up to the referendum were pro Leave.

The Times backed Remain, as did the Mirror which is one of the more popular papers. Could add for balance the Sunday Times backed Leave, but equally the Mail on Sunday backed Remain.

In terms of circulation figures in 2016, the Evening Standard and the Mirror would be in the top five for newspapers, which both backed Remain. Add in as well the Financial Times, Economist, New Statesman and the Independent, plus the Guardian. Some big publications there. As well as the Guardian.

This is just one small facet of the Remain campaign's resource dominance, though, and not as significant as their huge funding advantages and the backing they got from the vast majority of big businesses and influential people.

by the-goon Wed 19 Jun 2024, 8:05 am

Samo wrote:
the-goon wrote:
Samo wrote:Another Reform candidate being stood down after troublesome views have came out. Who’d’ve thought that a ~~political party~~ private company pretending to be a political party founded and led by a racist fascist would be attracting such troublesome people. Its a mystery.

A racist and a fascist? A serious accusation indeed, you know it is because the left never use those words often at all...

I think you forgot all "phobes" too. Really make your point.

His racism and fascism are well documented at this point.

By who? Liars and smear merchants?

I saw Reform want to enshrine free speech protections. How fascist. Everyone knows the driving force of fascism is the protection of free speech.

Obviously the kinder and gentler form of politics is assaulting political opponents. That's like, the total opposite of fascism. Duh!

by Samo Wed 19 Jun 2024, 9:40 am

the-goon wrote:
Samo wrote:
the-goon wrote:
Samo wrote:Another Reform candidate being stood down after troublesome views have came out. Who’d’ve thought that a ~~political party~~ private company pretending to be a political party founded and led by a racist fascist would be attracting such troublesome people. Its a mystery.

A racist and a fascist? A serious accusation indeed, you know it is because the left never use those words often at all...

I think you forgot all "phobes" too. Really make your point.

His racism and fascism are well documented at this point.

By who? Liars and smear merchants?

I saw Reform want to enshrine free speech protections. How fascist. Everyone knows the driving force of fascism is the protection of free speech.

Obviously the kinder and gentler form of politics is assaulting political opponents. That's like, the total opposite of fascism. Duh!

Yeah, liars and smear merchants. Thats exactly it.

by **superflyweight** Wed 19 Jun 2024, 10:04 am

lostinwales wrote:
Duty281 wrote:
navyblueshorts wrote:
lostinwales wrote:
Duty281 wrote:Donations for the first week of the election campaign...

Labour £926k; Tories £574k; Lib Dems £455k; Reform £140k

BuT WHerE is REforM'S moNEy cOMing FRom?!!!!!!!

They are campaigning in a very particular way, relying on bots and trolls with the gullible slowly being dragged in by being persuaded that loads of other people are also going to vote the same way. It's expensive
We all know what they did w/ the Brexit referendum, even if no-one has been had up for it. They're doing the same now.

Trying to overcome spending and media disadvantages?

I thought you were smarter than that.

Really?

by Sponsored content