Political round up.............

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Astonishing win in terms of margin. I was surprised that the ex-Labour candidate polled as low as 8%, but I guess word spread about his removal and he was viewed, effectively, as another independent.

Even if he wasn't removed, I think Galloway still wins, so it was a stroke of luck for Starmer in that he can ignore this defeat.

I thought Galloway would be out when the GE rolls around; now I'm not 100% sure. The issue of Gaza is hurting Labour amongst its once almost guaranteed Muslim vote.

I think this result shows that an Islamic party, if led by a brilliant campaigner, is a very viable option for the future. They could stand in areas where the Muslim population is relatively high and maybe win a couple of dozen seats at a GE, being similar to the SNP in terms of insurgency.

The biggest swing we'll probably ever see. 131 might not be the wipeout predicted but it's a disaster from where we started.

Similarly a disaster night for the SNP. Independence argument dead in the water

Steve Baker sat in studio while they predict on the screen he has less than 1% chance of winning

Perfect

Exit poll shows a massive majority for Lab, no surprise.
SNP, oh dear ...

Wow, Rees Mogg has a 47% chance of winning. He was considered dead in the water. Even Mordaunt has a 25% chance, which gives her a fighting chance of staying on and being the next leader (if she wants it).

If the exit poll is correct, the MRPs have definitely all overstated Labour and understated the Tories. Though credit to Survation for getting 13 for Reform on their last poll!

Think we might still have a few surprises. It's going to be very difficult to predict Reform, so I could see a bit of variance either way on that 13 prediction. Similar for the SNP, where the margins are very small. It doesn't quite add up Labour underperforming overall (relative to polling expectation), but the SNP only getting 10 seats.

Galloway's predicted to lose apparently

Yeah, 99% likely for Labour according to the exit poll.

Reform have apparently won both seats in Barnsley, according to the exit poll. This is however an issue, because they've withdrawn support from the Reform candidate in Barnsley North, so he'll be an independent, presumably, if he wins.

Reform may have also won Bassetlaw (56% chance), which is hilarious because the Reform candidate is 86 years old. That must surely break a record?

Duty281 wrote:Yeah, 99% likely for Labour according to the exit poll.

Reform have apparently won both seats in Barnsley, according to the exit poll. This is however an issue, because they've withdrawn support from the Reform candidate in Barnsley North, so he'll be an independent, presumably, if he wins.

Reform may have also won Bassetlaw (56% chance), which is hilarious because the Reform candidate is 86 years old. That must surely break a record?

There's hope for Biden yet!

Lib Dems have barely gained any votes from five years ago, they may have even lost votes, but they've gained 50 seats. FPTP is such nonsense.

Labour might have only got 36% of the vote? Goodness.

BBC - "It appears the Conservatives have suffered heavily in places where more than a third of households have a mortgage - a reflection perhaps of the damage done by former prime minister Liz Truss’s "fiscal event"."

Given that some people (on social media not on here) were talking up the LDs, or even Reform as the official opposition, I think the Tories would happily take the bread crumb of getting more MPs than all the other smaller parties combined. It's very bad, but not the wipeout/end of the Tory party that some were predicting.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Given that some people (on social media not on here) were talking up the LDs, or even Reform as the official opposition, I think the Tories would happily take the bread crumb of getting more MPs than all the other smaller parties combined. It's very bad, but not the wipeout/end of the Tory party that some were predicting.

Agree with that. They can rebuild from here and Nigel's hopes of replacing the Tories are a long way off still.

Very good first result for Reform. Turnout down 6/7% in this constituency from five years ago.

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Given that some people (on social media not on here) were talking up the LDs, or even Reform as the official opposition, I think the Tories would happily take the bread crumb of getting more MPs than all the other smaller parties combined. It's very bad, but not the wipeout/end of the Tory party that some were predicting.

Agree with that. They can rebuild from here and Nigel's hopes of replacing the Tories are a long way off still.

In that case, I've changed my mind!

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Given that some people (on social media not on here) were talking up the LDs, or even Reform as the official opposition, I think the Tories would happily take the bread crumb of getting more MPs than all the other smaller parties combined. It's very bad, but not the wipeout/end of the Tory party that some were predicting.

Agree with that. They can rebuild from here and Nigel's hopes of replacing the Tories are a long way off still.

In that case, I've changed my mind!

Behave! And go and pick up your winnings from my bank balance being wiped out sooner than the Tories.

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Given that some people (on social media not on here) were talking up the LDs, or even Reform as the official opposition, I think the Tories would happily take the bread crumb of getting more MPs than all the other smaller parties combined. It's very bad, but not the wipeout/end of the Tory party that some were predicting.

Agree with that. They can rebuild from here and Nigel's hopes of replacing the Tories are a long way off still.

In that case, I've changed my mind!

Behave! And go and pick up your winnings from my bank balance being wiped out sooner than the Tories.

Was it the pre-22:59 bet on the first result?

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Given that some people (on social media not on here) were talking up the LDs, or even Reform as the official opposition, I think the Tories would happily take the bread crumb of getting more MPs than all the other smaller parties combined. It's very bad, but not the wipeout/end of the Tory party that some were predicting.

Agree with that. They can rebuild from here and Nigel's hopes of replacing the Tories are a long way off still.

In that case, I've changed my mind!

Behave! And go and pick up your winnings from my bank balance being wiped out sooner than the Tories.

Was it the pre-22:59 bet on the first result?

Aye, it's all going south.

Actually 29% for Reform in that first constituency. That's very high and much better than UKIP in 2015.

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Given that some people (on social media not on here) were talking up the LDs, or even Reform as the official opposition, I think the Tories would happily take the bread crumb of getting more MPs than all the other smaller parties combined. It's very bad, but not the wipeout/end of the Tory party that some were predicting.

Agree with that. They can rebuild from here and Nigel's hopes of replacing the Tories are a long way off still.

In that case, I've changed my mind!

Behave! And go and pick up your winnings from my bank balance being wiped out sooner than the Tories.

Then on Monday, he can give Jeeves that small pay rise he was asking for.

Or maybe wait until Labour's promised tax cuts come in, Jules?

The Reform candidate in my constituency recently had to admit he was staunchly anti-monarchist (after an old tweet was found where he compared the Royals to Nazis). Rather an odd stance for someone wanting to bring back traditional British values, I thought.

Pal Joey wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Given that some people (on social media not on here) were talking up the LDs, or even Reform as the official opposition, I think the Tories would happily take the bread crumb of getting more MPs than all the other smaller parties combined. It's very bad, but not the wipeout/end of the Tory party that some were predicting.

Agree with that. They can rebuild from here and Nigel's hopes of replacing the Tories are a long way off still.

In that case, I've changed my mind!

Behave! And go and pick up your winnings from my bank balance being wiped out sooner than the Tories.

Then on Monday, he can give Jeeves that small pay rise he was asking for.

Or maybe wait until Labour's promised tax cuts come in, Jules?

Depends if I have any change left over from snorting my coke through £50 notes.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Pal Joey wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Given that some people (on social media not on here) were talking up the LDs, or even Reform as the official opposition, I think the Tories would happily take the bread crumb of getting more MPs than all the other smaller parties combined. It's very bad, but not the wipeout/end of the Tory party that some were predicting.

Agree with that. They can rebuild from here and Nigel's hopes of replacing the Tories are a long way off still.

In that case, I've changed my mind!

Behave! And go and pick up your winnings from my bank balance being wiped out sooner than the Tories.

Then on Monday, he can give Jeeves that small pay rise he was asking for.

Or maybe wait until Labour's promised tax cuts come in, Jules?

Depends if I have any change left over from snorting my coke through £50 notes.

Make sure you get the ones with Charlie on them.

Duty281 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Given that some people (on social media not on here) were talking up the LDs, or even Reform as the official opposition, I think the Tories would happily take the bread crumb of getting more MPs than all the other smaller parties combined. It's very bad, but not the wipeout/end of the Tory party that some were predicting.

Agree with that. They can rebuild from here and Nigel's hopes of replacing the Tories are a long way off still.

Mebbe not replacing them but with Labours vote not really going anywhere, bleeding votes to reform probably means the next leader will lean Nigel's way as the easiest way back

Galloway loses. Good riddance.

Rees Mogg out

Looks like the exit poll vastly overstated reform

Exit poll gave IDS less than 1% chance of winning and he held on. So a bit wonkier than usual this year

Liz Truss has lost and ****ed off before the declaration apparently

She turned up after about 10 minutes of everyone standing on stage then refused to speak

Loads of big scalps being taken - including a couple of shocking Labour defeats.

My only concern is theres still a couple of moonhowling headbangers in the Tory party like Braverman and Badenoch who will try and drag the party further right.

Starmer should use his overwhelming majority to excise out the wacko elements of his party. Can't see the Tories recovering for the next election so he should get at least two terms. Interesting that the SNP have collapsed and Scotland have returned to Labour. In the past the Scots produced some excellent / competent politicians. I hope that Starmer is his own man and doesn't blindly follow the foreign policies of the US (and EU).

Samo wrote:Loads of big scalps being taken - including a couple of shocking Labour defeats.

My only concern is theres still a couple of moonhowling headbangers in the Tory party like Braverman and Badenoch who will try and drag the party further right.

Fair to say the machine behind the conservative party probably wanted Mordaunt after putting her up for the live debates. That won't happen now I assume.

Cleverley maybe I guess. Braverman might make this look a good night for them. Badenoch useless for anything bar fighting culture wars

An utterly bizarre election, as the dust settles.

Two things are true. Labour have won a massive majority, the biggest since 1997/2001. They have achieved it on 34% of the vote (!) if the BBC is to believed. Nearly two thirds have rejected Starmer, but his party have won 65% of the seats. Such a bad system.

The Tories have done better than expected, with nearly 24% of the vote and around 120 seats. After 14 years, they were only 10% off Labour. Shocking.

I've never seen a more reluctant landslide. Starmer inherits a bad situation and a distrustful public. The polls overestimated Labour and underestimated the Tories.

Lib Dems barely improve their vote (up about half a percent) and gain 63 seats! SNP have collapsed, that's great. Over represented for far too long in Parliament.

As I thought, Reform's figure of 13 was dicey. 4/5 seats in the end, but not the worst thing. 14% is a little disappointing after a strong start.

Greens, best night ever for them. Up to nearly 7% of the vote and up to 4 seats.

Utterly depressing to see certain independents elected to Parliament, and a grim foreshadowing of what is to come. Huge congratulations to Jess Phillips and Shabana Mahmood for winning their seats, but we're in for a very dark future in some places, and I'll await to see how Labour deal with it.

Delighted for Nigel, obviously. Numerous heavyweight Tories lost, but Jeremy Hunt clung on. Shocking to see Streeting nearly lost, and Ashworth. I'm sure there's plenty of results I'll find out later.

Overall, concerning times. It seems to be an election where people mostly wanted the Tories out, but the endorsement of Labour is ice cold. The case for PR is stronger than ever.

Getting the Tories out the primary thing yeah. Though Labour have prioritised an extremely efficient vote compared to the last few elections, which I guess has worked out, if arriving at a fairly shallow vote share. 5 years time will have to be a much more targeted defense.

It's a massively shallow vote share. I don't think a single poll had Labour this low, or the Tories this close.

I thought Nigel's intervention made zero difference to the overall race e.g. Starmer was winning a good majority with or without Nigel getting involved. Now, I'm not so sure. Might have actually been looking at a hung parliament, or a May like majority, if Nigel had stayed on GB News.

So Labour only got 34% of vote? Shows that the voting public totally sick to death of politics!

This I think sums it all up :

"Former minister Steve Baker, who lost his Wycombe seat to Labour, told the BBC he was glad to have lost, adding: “thank God I’m free”.

He added that it had been a privilege to be an MP, but politicians now suffered lots of abuse and his house is now "like Fort Knox”."

Basically being an MP must be a rubbish job, and being PM has to be the worst. So much abuse even from own side as no doubt Starmer will find out.

Think certain ex MPs should probably look in the mirror as to why that is the case

Oh absolutely, some pretty much get what they deserve but not all.

Tories 23.7% + Reform's 14.3% = 38%. Labour 33.8%.

Basically, going to be very tough for Starmer to win in 2029. Even a basic 10% swing from Lab to Tory will see Labour's vote lead eroded. But if Reform/Tory do a deal to stand aside in certain seats for the other party, it's going to be even tougher.

Overall, it's been the strangest election I can recall. The polling has got it wrong and had a bad night. This can happen with a new entrant to the race (Reform) and numerous independents confusing matters, but to get it wrong by this much is quite concerning for all the polling companies. The average Labour polling lead was in the high teens, and it's actually just 10%. Norstat got the closest. Labour were overvalued and the Tories undervalued.

The case for PR is stronger than ever. FPTP is the biggest nonsense you could ever wish to see. Johnson/Blair/Thatcher all got landslides bigger than they should have done, but at least they crossed 40% of the vote. For Starmer to get 410 seats with 34% of the vote is embarrassing.

The Tories haven't been destroyed, most disappointingly. They will rebuild and come again. Just like the polling companies will have to.

Strange day.

mountain man wrote:Oh absolutely, some pretty much get what they deserve but not all.

No one deserves abuse or threats of violence, however vehemently you disagree with them or they get things wrong.

Reform + Green = 6 million votes = 8 seats
Lib Dems = 3.5 million votes = 71 seats

Yay, love FPTP! Wonder how quiet the Lib Dems will be on FPTP now they haven't been shafted by it (for once).

Nigel needs to bang the drum very loudly for PR.

Wasn't sure why C4 put Dorries front and centre on their coverage but fair play, produced some great comedy

Agree there about PR, as it happens I was just discussing this with the wife. A very unfair system I think.

Duty281 wrote:

mountain man wrote:Oh absolutely, some pretty much get what they deserve but not all.

No one deserves abuse or threats of violence, however vehemently you disagree with them or they get things wrong.

I was referring to harsh criticism and scrutiny. Any actual abuse or violence, threats etc totally and utterly unacceptable and should be severely punished.

Since we like odds, next Tory leader:

Kemi Badenoch - 7/2
Tom Tugendhat - 5/1
Priti Patel - 13/2
Suella Braverman - 10/1
Nigel Farage - 11/1
James Cleverly - 12/1

Might be free votes to reclaim but it ain't a promising group

My guess is Badenoch.

We might find out quite soon as will Sunak want to stay on?

Would need to see what makeup of Tory MPs and what the process is.

But Badenoch is the most popular with Tory members, has been for a while, so she's a deserved front runner. Can she win support from the MPs, is the next and main question.

The Tories are in a frustratingly good place (for a defeat) and I don't expect any deals with Reform (other than the Tories asking for Reform to stand down). A great chance to wipe out the Tories has been missed. They only need a 2010 GE swing at the next election to cancel out Labour's vote share lead and, probably, get a hung parliament at worst.

With Starmer winning the lowest ever vote share of a party topping the polls in a UK GE, a swing back to the Tories is inevitable. There's no love for Starmer, and he hasn't got a magic wand to fix the country's ills, so there will be the inevitable drift back to the Tories over the next few years, like the past 14 years haven't happened. Won't be long before we see polls with the Tories leading again.

34%-24%. That is such a bad win. It's like England last weekend.

Nah he's gone for sure. You don't survive this.

Issue for Badenoch is there's a number of postal votes that didn't get sent out is supposedly higher than her winning margin, so Labour may be entitled to a by election if they ask for it. Though I'd probably want Kemi as leader

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4ng3j1pnpqo

Sleepwalking to disaster. Will Starmer have the balls to call this out, or shall we just look to this as our future in numerous towns and cities?

Has anyone mentioned that slab faced pr*ck Gullis losing his seat? Couldn't happen to a 'nicer' person.

Now he can shut his braying mouth, the grifting gobsh*te.

Mind the windows Tino. wrote:Has anyone mentioned that slab faced pr*ck Gullis losing his seat? Couldn't happen to a 'nicer' person.

Now he can shut his braying mouth, the grifting gobsh*te.

It's such a shame Brendan Clarke-Smith is out of a job too.