Keith Earls and the number 13

First topic message reminder :

So Munster have named Keith Earls at outside centre against Treviso. This is now Earls' third match in a row where he has played 13 and looks set to continue this against Castres and Northampton. Given his past experience here for Munster, Ireland and Lions is he a certainty to play there against Wales?

Sin é wrote:

Notch wrote:

Sin é wrote:Are the verbal claims of fans more relevant than actual data.

YES. With a capital Y.

Your data tells us nothing about how tries are conceded. For instance, an intercept try has more to do with poor decision making in attack than defence. And your data is from a source known for inaccuracy.

So you can see why its not taken seriously.

OK, has Cave missed any tackles in the games against Clermont or Leicester (I'm ignoring Aironi as they would not be particularly challenging)?

Have Ulster conceeded 23 tries in the Rabbo Direct?

Do you think Ulster is good as a defensive unit? If you think its good, do you think Cave as the Captain of Defence should get some of the credit. If you think its poor, does that reflect on him as the Captain of the Defence?

Yes, Cave has missed tackles in both games. Yes, I think we are good as a defensive unit right now. I think the strength of our defence reflects well on Cave but thats not the reason why i think he's a good defender.

I think he's a good defender because I observe the following things when I watch him play; awareness of where he needs to position himself, good decision making, good technique in the tackle and ability to effectively communicate with the players around him.

I think the main reason, Sin, we have conceded tries is because we have turned over too much ball. For instance we conceded four tries in our last two games. Three of them came after losing possession; in two a loose pass went to ground mere metres from the tryline and an opposition player dived on it. One was a lineout ball five metres out which went to an opponent who went over to score.

The other try we conceded was due to Terblanche getting sucked in too narrow and a good cross kick being put in for O'Dea.

It was an error by Terblanche in terms of positioning. That's the fact. The opinion/interpretation then is Terblanche is not accustomed to playing there and got it wrong.

So only one of those tries came from a defensive error- thats whats simply looking at the stats don't tell you. If you want to be able to use these stats in an argument, you need to go deeper. 23 tries were conceded by Ulster, x came from missed tackles, x came from interceptions, x came from turnovers... That would be a relevant stat. Then looking at what players missed the tackle, miscued the pass. Who made the error.

Just the 23 tries conceded by Ulster proves nothing. It shows us nothing. It does not further our understanding of why those tries were conceded and what Cave's role in our defence is, positive or negative. It's a non sequitir without the analysis to back it up. And analysis can only be done by watching the game of rugby.

So, if you're asking whether our actually watching the game trumps your use of stats- the answer is yes. A good, methodical use of stats is irrefutable. But you use of stats? Amateurish. So vague as to prove nothing and be less useful than an educated guess. Presented without the context that would make them worth you even typing them.

He's good though. Really good. :dressedorange:

lads any thoughts on who should play 13?

600 plus posts im going mad ted. feel like bill murray in groundhog day.

roll on the 6 nations. deccie put an end to this and name the team.

lets hope both get some gametime at 13 and play splendidly in a resurgent irish back division

Dave. Oh Helloo Daaaave.

The answer was always in the heading. It always has been. Stag is a contrary Munster bollix. It was a WUM from the start.
The discussion was fun, but realistically irrelevant. As are most of the posts on here.
We all know that. We just dont say it out loud.

Keep schtum.

FFS Notch why did you have to go and ruin the debate by talking some sense!

Anyways I've changed my mind.... Earls for 13!....

Awww...so Notch got the Prize for being the 600th post?

Sorry, I missed that. Was the Iceland finger food and the glass of Aldi wine just 'to die for?'

Notch wrote:

Sin é wrote:

Notch wrote:

Sin é wrote:Are the verbal claims of fans more relevant than actual data.

YES. With a capital Y.

Your data tells us nothing about how tries are conceded. For instance, an intercept try has more to do with poor decision making in attack than defence. And your data is from a source known for inaccuracy.

So you can see why its not taken seriously.

OK, has Cave missed any tackles in the games against Clermont or Leicester (I'm ignoring Aironi as they would not be particularly challenging)?

Have Ulster conceeded 23 tries in the Rabbo Direct?

Do you think Ulster is good as a defensive unit? If you think its good, do you think Cave as the Captain of Defence should get some of the credit. If you think its poor, does that reflect on him as the Captain of the Defence?

Yes, Cave has missed tackles in both games. Yes, I think we are good as a defensive unit right now. I think the strength of our defence reflects well on Cave but thats not the reason why i think he's a good defender.

I think he's a good defender because I observe the following things when I watch him play; awareness of where he needs to position himself, good decision making, good technique in the tackle and ability to effectively communicate with the players around him.

I think the main reason, Sin, we have conceded tries is because we have turned over too much ball. For instance we conceded four tries in our last two games. Three of them came after losing possession; in two a loose pass went to ground mere metres from the tryline and an opposition player dived on it. One was a lineout ball five metres out which went to an opponent who went over to score.

The other try we conceded was due to Terblanche getting sucked in too narrow and a good cross kick being put in for O'Dea.

It was an error by Terblanche in terms of positioning. That's the fact. The opinion/interpretation then is Terblanche is not accustomed to playing there and got it wrong.

So only one of those tries came from a defensive error- thats whats simply looking at the stats don't tell you. If you want to be able to use these stats in an argument, you need to go deeper. 23 tries were conceded by Ulster, x came from missed tackles, x came from interceptions, x came from turnovers... That would be a relevant stat. Then looking at what players missed the tackle, miscued the pass. Who made the error.

Just the 23 tries conceded by Ulster proves nothing. It shows us nothing. It does not further our understanding of why those tries were conceded and what Cave's role in our defence is, positive or negative. It's a non sequitir without the analysis to back it up. And analysis can only be done by watching the game of rugby.

So, if you're asking whether our actually watching the game trumps your use of stats- the answer is yes. A good, methodical use of stats is irrefutable. But you use of stats? Amateurish. So vague as to prove nothing and be less useful than an educated guess. Presented without the context that would make them worth you even typing them.

Yeah, but when Sexton came on he had 30 minutes to change the game and he couldn't.

Sh!t, sorry, wrong thread.

Well said Notch.

Notch wrote:Just the 23 tries conceded by Ulster proves nothing. It shows us nothing. It does not further our understanding of why those tries were conceded and what Cave's role in our defence is, positive or negative. It's a non sequitir without the analysis to back it up. And analysis can only be done by watching the game of rugby.

Boom...owned! ...that's a great post!

Notch, I'm not the Ulster coach. I don't need to go into why, how trys are scored. You & I are not coaching the team - but if you are happy with the defence, fair enough. I know I wouldn't be.

By the way, I never asked 'whether our actually watching the game trumps your use of stats".

What I will ask though is, do the stats back up what you claim (which is how I use them).

Watch games and decide don't read Stats and decide.
Stats are useful items of information but context is everything.

Going by the stats no Newcastle, Wasps or Worcester player should even be considered for England as their stats would not match players from better teams.

Those stats you quote also include Best and Ferris - on that basis why will they be in the Ireland team against Wales - the stats say they shouldn't be

geoff998rugby wrote:Watch games and decide don't read Stats and decide.
Stats are useful items of information but context is everything.

Going by the stats no Newcastle, Wasps or Worcester player should even be considered for England as their stats would not match players from better teams.

Those stats you quote also include Best and Ferris - on that basis why will they be in the Ireland team against Wales - the stats say they shouldn't be

Where have I said that context isn't a factor. (I even asked Notch to supply one, but instead I got a wordy excuse as to why Ulster has conceeded these tries).

Notch stated I didn't watch the games, that doesn't mean its correct. I've stated repeatedly that Cave is a fine player, but maybe lacking pace. I've never really noted his defence on the pitch (and I do know where the problems are in Ulster - its not with either Ferris or Best - and the stats support that opinion).

However, Cave is Captain of Defence and if Ulster were very good defensively, he would deservedly get the plaudits. He has to take some of the flak if Ulster's defence is poor, particularly when some are claiming that this is a reason to start him at 13 in the 6Ns instead of Earls, whose defence, apparently is poor!

And by the way, there are not too many players from those two 3 teams to make the England squad - 2 in fact (Joe Simpson & Rob Webber from Wasps).

Stats (or information) can be useful. Archer against Ulster did wellish in the 1st half. 2nd half he was not so good. A possible reason for the fall-off in his performance in the 2nd half could be that he was exhausted - the guy was Munster's top tackler. No doubt, someone will tell him to pace himself in his next match and stop tackling everything that moves!

Earls has an X-factor that none of the other centre candidates have, he will play regardless of what we think.

Thomond wrote:Earls has an X-factor that none of the other centre candidates have, he will play regardless of what we think.

That's an ABSOLUTE disgrace that they've turned the Six Nations into a global laughing stock and rebranded it a singing competition. Cop on, ERC!!!

Thomond wrote:Earls has an X-factor that none of the other centre candidates have, he will play regardless of what we think.

I might have agreed with you until I saw Darren Cave's performance last night- awesome.

Notch wrote:

Thomond wrote:Earls has an X-factor that none of the other centre candidates have, he will play regardless of what we think.

I might have agreed with you until I saw Darren Cave's performance last night- awesome.

He was good.

He wasn't awesome.

He should be in the squad and might get a bench spot.

I'd be happy to discuss having Wallace at 12 though

Thomond wrote:Earls has an X-factor that none of the other centre candidates have, he will play regardless of what we think.

Now, this I do agree with. As a player he is very talented. The other candidate though I would add to that is Fitz. Both Fitz and Earls are very naturally talented players, and I feel they will play a huge part in the Ireland team wherever they are played.

Cave is a smarter, more solid and very consistent player who I think is the best option at 13 atm. However, he does not have that "x factor" that Earls or Fitzgerald have.

Though I didn't get to see the match last night, so I do not know how good Cave was

over to you now mr earls. i hope deccie is glued to all of these games and next week too. so much to play for in terms of places or is there??

From the highlights on TG4 Earls looked to have had another decent game...maybe he is a centre after all..... Cave had another very good game too so its all good. Over to you Mr McFadden...

roddersm wrote:From the highlights on TG4 Earls looked to have had another decent game...maybe he is a centre after all..... Cave had another very good game too so its all good. Over to you Mr McFadden...

The fact that one is 'decent' and one is 'very good' should surely speak for itself

Symantics JmD, symantics ....

You may think i am being pedantic about your use of symantics but i am sure that you mean semantics and since the word refers to the study of the meaning of a word or phrase, it is rather fundamental to get the FECKING SPELLING RIGHT!

Wales by 47 points

Gatts,

Wales overhyped. Had a decent tournooi at the WC. But. Check the HC.

Check reality. 3 Irish provinces, 1 in already, 2 on the edge of going through to the last 8. And. Maybe, just maybe, one Welsh side.

Ireland by 18. Min.

Wales, will be close to wooden-spoonists. Check the cycle.

Believe.

Gibosn...what's new...Welsh regions are always poor at HC and this year is no diff. Fact is that has no correlation to national performance v Ireland why would it...we won the last two and will win the next one.

I believe. Just not in what you're selling.

Just for that. Ireland by 20.

And yer orses handed to ye.

Everytime Wales rise, and get their hopes up, beyond realistic expectations. They crash. Being watching it for ions now.

Have a really nice time in aul Dubh Linn. Enjoy the pints and the shoppin anyway. We love the Welsh. Kindred spirits.

Ha ha that's good...it's hardly 'unrealistic' to beat a side you have beaten twice in 12 months....and frankly crumbled the last time you met.

Jaysus Gibbo... Do you ever sleep mate?

Gatts wrote:we won the last two and will win the next one

Correction:
You won one (played better and no contest).
A blind linesman and a blind ref gave you the other game; rather like a person picks up an OBE. You by no means "won" it. That is to say, you can talk about the intricacies of being a better side that won you the WC game, you can't use the same arguments about the previous one.

SecretFly wrote:

Gatts wrote:we won the last two and will win the next one

Correction:
You won one (played better and no contest).
A blind linesman and a blind ref gave you the other game; rather like a person picks up an OBE. You by no means "won" it. That is to say, you can talk about the intricacies of being a better side that won you the WC game, you can't use the same arguments about the previous one.

Why use a few words when you can spout BS and try and confuse the issue eh fly!

Didn't use any argument, don't have to, and i am not concerned with the intricacies you refer to. We won 19-13, scored more points, ref took his information from his linesman, no one disputes it was the wrong information but the RESULT STANDS

how do you like them apples?

As for your disgraceful remark about the OBE I suggest you take a long hard look at yourself in the mirror. Do you like what you see?

You're abilities 'won' you one game, Gatts - that's the apple that matter in the argument you were putting forward to Gibson.. The ref and linesman 'won' you the other one. If you have a stick to beat us with by reference to the last two wins, do keep it accurate.

But of course, the RESULT DOES STAND. Whew, aren't you delighted I agree with a number stat.

On the OBE - you get one, you don't 'win' one. Any OBE recipient would tell you that. So you be all offended if you so like, you find the emotion very easy to affect anyway, don't you

You really are a soloist aren't you fly.

I am so sick of your carping on about losing to us in the last 6 nations...i look forward to you losing again in 3 weeks and wonder what reason you will come up with this time. Don't forget we kicked your butts at RWC so you have your opportunity to regain some dignity but i think you know deep down you'll lose again because your backs just aren't up to it. In the meantime stop feeling sorry for yourself, its embarassing for you.

No team loses a game solely because a ref made a poor decision...these happen all the time and affect every team, IRELAND LOST BECAUSE THEY SCORED FEWER POINTS. Its a basic point but you obviously don't get it so best you get out the manual and read up on the basics.

I couldn't give a rats chuff whether you agree or not, your opinion is entirely irrelevant. What matters is you lost, twice.

As for an OBE notable recipients include Ian Botham and Viv Richards, Jonny, Lol and Billy Whizz....am i offended? no because you are ignorant, but your dismissal of such people's achievements is offensive.

Educate yourself.

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Category:Officers_of_the_Order_of_the_British_Empire&pagefrom=Del+Piano%2C+James%0AJames+del+Piano#mw-pages

Gatts you take this stuff too seriously sir, you do realise that this is just an internet forum were people express their opinions?...have you tried cammomile tea?

I knew all along there was a sour taste in your snout about me, 'Gatts'.
You don't like what I say because you don't like what I have to say, or how I say it. So yeah, you do care...care much too much.

You hate the very idea of that Welsh Six Nations game; and the ref, and the linesman, and the ballboy - the fairytale just doesn't sit right with your perceptions of Wales the Great. And so eternally (for it IS you Miaow) you try to slide the 'beaten twice' thing in, hoping that one day nobody will pick you up on it and the ballboy will finally have been forgotten.

It'll be a long wait if I'm around to spot it!!

On the OBE!!!!. You do not 'win' an OBE, you are awarded one. It-is-an-honour-not-a-game.

It will be Darcy and McFadden.

In the Centre for Ireland v Wales that is. Earls will need a huge game v Saints to take it now.

Carry on.

I'm just glad Earls was finally mentioned! He should at least be considered

Cave was the best Irish 13 at the weekend so IF fit........

Cave ruled out for six weeks; a very disappointing turn of events for Declan Kidney who would have been impressed by him on Friday night

Notch wrote:Cave ruled out for six weeks; a very disappointing turn of events for Declan Kidney who would have been impressed by him on Friday night

NOOOOOO

And seriously stop kidding yourself lads - Cave is the best 13 in Ireland currently. If you still have your delusions, just watch Ulster play please

That's it then. Definitely Earls at 13.

Can we now devote the next month to debating who will be at 12?

Thanks

Notch wrote:Cave ruled out for six weeks; a very disappointing turn of events for Declan Kidney who would have been impressed by him on Friday night

Very disappointed to hear that. Going on what we've seen this season so far he's definitely been the best 13 in Ireland. With any luck we may still feature towards the end.

As an aside, why is it that Ireland squads are always named long after the other nations (in general)? It's annoying.

Cos Kidney needs to think deeply and fastidiously consider every possible option open to him. It takes time to alter the squad and invent a game plan that works around it...

Then, he goes and picks the same players he always does and says "Feic it, sure we'll give it an aul lash"

Just joshin. Just joshin.

HELLO MMC!

Missed ya bud.

MMC wrote:

Notch wrote:Cave ruled out for six weeks; a very disappointing turn of events for Declan Kidney who would have been impressed by him on Friday night

Very disappointed to hear that. Going on what we've seen this season so far he's definitely been the best 13 in Ireland. With any luck we may still feature towards the end.

As an aside, why is it that Ireland squads are always named long after the other nations (in general)? It's annoying.

Probably because Kidney & his coaching staff like to watch them all playing in the Heineken Cup to check out their form.

On a recent Ruggamatrix pod cast, Les Kiss talked about how the coaching staff thrash a lot of stuff out on the way to games as they usually travel together.

Hard luck on Cave, being near but yet so far. Is he the new Barry Murphy?

No Cullen or MOD in front of Tuohy, Ryan, Toner thats all I ask
..and no TOL in front of Marshall either.

Bad news for Cave. Crying shame. Timing is shoite for Ulster & Ireland.

Yeah Sin, its a great move. Rounds 5 & 6 for him to see his best players really go for it and see who comes out trumps. I hope they ALL give him selection headaches.

geoff998rugby wrote:No Cullen or MOD in front of Tuohy, Ryan, Toner thats all I ask
..and no TOL in front of Marshall either.

+1.

geoff998rugby wrote:No Cullen or MOD in front of Tuohy, Ryan, Toner thats all I ask
..and no TOL in front of Marshall either.

Agree with all of those. Though surely Reddan, Murray and Boss will ensure that Marshall is down pecking order anyway.

geoff998rugby wrote:No Cullen or MOD in front of Tuohy, Ryan, Toner thats all I ask
..and no TOL in front of Marshall either.

Can't see Marshall being put in beside Sexton in a 6Ns game without having played together at least one or twice and a pack he has mostly (bar Ferris & Best) not played with before.

geoff998rugby wrote:No Cullen or MOD in front of Tuohy, Ryan, Toner thats all I ask
..and no TOL in front of Marshall either.

Match day locks will be Ryan, O'Connell and DOC on the bench. DOC to start against Scotland or Italy.

Toner,Tuohy and Marshall to play for the wolfhounds I reckon.

Marshall should start for the Wolfhounds. He's earned that at least. In great form.

Yeah, I reckon Murray, Reddan & Boss for the full squad.

Sin é wrote:
On a recent Ruggamatrix pod cast, Les Kiss talked about how the coaching staff thrash a lot of stuff out on the way to games as they usually travel together.

That's one stuffed Nissan Micro!