Keith Earls and the number 13

First topic message reminder :

So Munster have named Keith Earls at outside centre against Treviso. This is now Earls' third match in a row where he has played 13 and looks set to continue this against Castres and Northampton. Given his past experience here for Munster, Ireland and Lions is he a certainty to play there against Wales?

Also has anybody convinced anyone in 11 pages about who the next 13 should actually be?

I have to admit though that our fellow Munster men have made some good points about Earls being a more natural centre. If he can work on his distribution that is.

Rory_Gallagher wrote:Also has anybody convinced anyone in 11 pages about who the next 13 should actually be?

No, but we've narrowed it down to Earls, Cave, O'Malley, Spence and Griffin.....

Surely the objective is to have a few options - horses for courses, form etc. - not a nailed down certainty.

I'm greately amused by the way some posters criticise Kidney for being too conservative, yet freak out when he drops one of the favoured ones for someone else. Would it not be more interesting for instance, if it was a tight call between Tommy Bowe & Andrew Trimble and it didn't really matter which one of them started?

Is this post still going!

O'Malley isn't even in contention this year. He needs to bulk up some more and work on his defence. Sure, he looks sharp and talented, but the likes of Roberts and Rougerie would destroy him at test level at the moment, I think. He is very small. He has to develop more, physically, but also mentally (he can switch off sometimes), before he's even considered for test rugby.

Spence's size will make the transition to test rugby that bit easier for Spence, but he needs to work on his passing. It's not up to standard. I really don't know much about Griffin. Do people think he could make the step up now? And I have to admit I haven't seen Cave play much either. Bowe is also an option I'd prefer but nobody else seems to agree.

If it's to be Earls, then we can make it work. Sexton will have to be the brains of midfield and but Earls into positions where he can do his worst to the opposition. Defences can be terrified by the type of raw pace he has, if he can get into space.

Griffin outplayed O'Malley but its a big step up from Connacht to international so maybe he needs some time with the Wolfhounds. Definitely one for the future though.

555 Posts!!!!!

Thanks for adding to it

I don't think Earls has the size or defence to be a Test 13. Also I don't think he's done enough to be in the starting 15!

By the way I haven't watched Ulster much this year. Why hasn't Spence wroked well at 12? Could he not be employed as a simple but effective crash ball merchant?

That is exactly how he was used and our back play suffered as a result.
We became very predictable.

Sorry to say that him not playing at 12 has improved our variation.

Dont blame the player - blame the management who seemed to think that Spence on the crash ball and Trimble coming inside to do the same was all we needed to do.
Without that option we look a better team.

Spence needs a good creative 12 inside him to get the best out of him. He isn't a 12, his passing isn't good enough and he is simply used as a one dimensional crash ball centre. I still think he and Marshall looked the future centre partnership for Ulster and Ireland. They looked almost perfect, and with time and experience they could become fantastic.

Sin é wrote:Surely the objective is to have a few options - horses for courses, form etc. - not a nailed down certainty.

I'm greately amused by the way some posters criticise Kidney for being too conservative, yet freak out when he drops one of the favoured ones for someone else. Would it not be more interesting for instance, if it was a tight call between Tommy Bowe & Andrew Trimble and it didn't really matter which one of them started?

I thought the TWO of them should have played in the RWC. But with Fitz back in great form, I think it will be either/or. Id pick Trimble. I believe Deccie wont.

Also, Cave & O Malley should get a run with the A's.

And Feckless, O Malley handled Rougerie in France, v ASM. Nay bodder. It was like watching a kid trying to stop a giant, but he did. And, I agree, he needs another year to bulk up and to lose those lapses in concentration.

Gibson wrote:
And Feckless, O Malley handled Rougerie in France, v ASM. Nay bodder.

True but a couple of weeks later the fat AB no 10 who plays for Bath and then Eoin Griffin were brushing him aside like he didn't exist. If he can't sort that out he can't join the party, it doesn't matter how good he is.

Gibson wrote:

Sin é wrote:Surely the objective is to have a few options - horses for courses, form etc. - not a nailed down certainty.

I'm greately amused by the way some posters criticise Kidney for being too conservative, yet freak out when he drops one of the favoured ones for someone else. Would it not be more interesting for instance, if it was a tight call between Tommy Bowe & Andrew Trimble and it didn't really matter which one of them started?

I thought the TWO of them should have played in the RWC. But with Fitz back in great form, I think it will be either/or. Id pick Trimble. I believe Deccie wont.

Also, Cave & O Malley should get a run with the A's.

And Feckless, O Malley handled Rougerie in France, v ASM. Nay bodder. It was like watching a kid trying to stop a giant, but he did. And, I agree, he needs another year to bulk up and to lose those lapses in concentration.

The two of them did play in the world cup

Rodders,
You've mentioned that a few times. Prone to exaggeration mo chara?

When O Malley came on v Bath, we looked a different team in attack. Really lit us up. I was at the game. Didnt see him being run over either.

As for Griffen, yes he had a good game v O Malley. But brushing him aside like he didnt exist? I dont think so.

His positional defensive work must improve. He missed two tackles v Connacht, I agree, but let's be fair here.

Sin é wrote:

Gibson wrote:

Sin é wrote:Surely the objective is to have a few options - horses for courses, form etc. - not a nailed down certainty.

I'm greately amused by the way some posters criticise Kidney for being too conservative, yet freak out when he drops one of the favoured ones for someone else. Would it not be more interesting for instance, if it was a tight call between Tommy Bowe & Andrew Trimble and it didn't really matter which one of them started?

I thought the TWO of them should have played in the RWC. But with Fitz back in great form, I think it will be either/or. Id pick Trimble. I believe Deccie wont.

Also, Cave & O Malley should get a run with the A's.

And Feckless, O Malley handled Rougerie in France, v ASM. Nay bodder. It was like watching a kid trying to stop a giant, but he did. And, I agree, he needs another year to bulk up and to lose those lapses in concentration.

The two of them did play in the world cup

At the SAME time Sin?

Gibson wrote:Rodders,
You've mentioned that a few times. Prone to exaggeration mo chara?

Cough cough....pot....kettle.... .....if O'Malley is the chosen one, and superior to all comers, as you have also suggested on several occaisions perhaps it isn't too much too expect that he doesn't fall off one on ones so easily.....

Gibson wrote:

Sin é wrote:

Gibson wrote:

Sin é wrote:Surely the objective is to have a few options - horses for courses, form etc. - not a nailed down certainty.

I'm greately amused by the way some posters criticise Kidney for being too conservative, yet freak out when he drops one of the favoured ones for someone else. Would it not be more interesting for instance, if it was a tight call between Tommy Bowe & Andrew Trimble and it didn't really matter which one of them started?

I thought the TWO of them should have played in the RWC. But with Fitz back in great form, I think it will be either/or. Id pick Trimble. I believe Deccie wont.

Also, Cave & O Malley should get a run with the A's.

And Feckless, O Malley handled Rougerie in France, v ASM. Nay bodder. It was like watching a kid trying to stop a giant, but he did. And, I agree, he needs another year to bulk up and to lose those lapses in concentration.

The two of them did play in the world cup

At the SAME time Sin?

opps, sorry, I didn't get that you were just trying to get a dig in at Earls.

Just to explain again - it would freshen up the team and make Ireland a little less predictable if we had more than one option for each position (I.e., that Trimble & Fitz scored* as many tries as Bowe & Earls when playing on the wings - it would make it a much harder selection to make - something any coach would like).

*the flaw in their game - they don't score enough tries to be top wingers.

Wow some discussion gone on about the Irish 13 shirt here!

For me its fairly simple. In the here and now Cave is the best 13 available to Ireland and should play this 6 nations. He runs good lines, is strong on defence, isnt as slow as some make out and has been in form for some time now.

Earls is a natural finisher for me and although his pace at 13 is a very scary weapon to have he would be best utilised on the wing. He hasnt the distribution to play in midfield and would question his decision making. Hes the one that should be finishing the chances off not trying to create them.

For the future O'Malley is currently the front runner with some good performances for Leinster but curremtly is questionable defensivly and has a tendancy to lapse off late on. My bet for the future 13 is Spence. Has all the attributes to make a top 13. Runs good lines at pace and has the size you want to see from your 13. Shame he didnt play much at 13 for Ulster over the world cup period. Ulster missed a great chance there to get young Marshall gametime at 12 and leave Spence/Cave battle it out at 13. Spence could have even played from the wing and looked to come infield on the big carries

Keith who?

HERSH wrote:Keith who?

Exactly.

Oh I remember him, he was that Lion who couldn't catch the ball in SA

I notice that against Clermont & Leicester, Cave missed a few tackles (3). Considering he only made 7 tackles in the two games, that is a high proportion between two game when the opposition is a bit stronger.

I read elsewhere that Cave is Ulster's captain of defence - if that is the case, he isn't doing a great job as they missed 12 (out of 61) in the game against Clermont. In the Leicester game Ulster missed 14 out of 92 tackles made.

In the world cup warmup games Earls played in the centre x 2 times.

France in France - 5/1 (made 5, missed 1)
England in Aviva - 6/1.

The time he played in the centre against Wales (scoring 2 tries) his tally was 11/0. (Roberts & Hook were the centres).

I've had a quick look through Earls' tackling record in the HCup - and its pretty good. Certainly as good, if not better than Caves.

Info is from scrum.com

HERSH wrote:Keith who?

The Earl of Thomond.

Danny_Boy wrote:Wow some discussion gone on about the Irish 13 shirt here!

For me its fairly simple. In the here and now Cave is the best 13 available to Ireland and should play this 6 nations. He runs good lines, is strong on defence, isnt as slow as some make out and has been in form for some time now.

Earls is a natural finisher for me and although his pace at 13 is a very scary weapon to have he would be best utilised on the wing. He hasnt the distribution to play in midfield and would question his decision making. Hes the one that should be finishing the chances off not trying to create them.

For the future O'Malley is currently the front runner with some good performances for Leinster but curremtly is questionable defensivly and has a tendancy to lapse off late on. My bet for the future 13 is Spence. Has all the attributes to make a top 13. Runs good lines at pace and has the size you want to see from your 13. Shame he didnt play much at 13 for Ulster over the world cup period. Ulster missed a great chance there to get young Marshall gametime at 12 and leave Spence/Cave battle it out at 13. Spence could have even played from the wing and looked to come infield on the big carries

Nice summary but with one error . Luke Marshall was not available for a number of games because of injury.

Sin whats the stats for an apple versus an orange?...

HERSH wrote:Oh I remember him, he was that Lion who couldn't catch the ball in SA

Well ..that's a bad fault sure enough...but a worse one is having the ball and still not knowing what to do with it. I remember that guy

Sin, there's more to defense than tackling.

For example, Dan Parks is a poor defender. He left a massive gap which Heaslip walked through to put O'Brien in against Cardiff. The gap was so big he didn't even have a chance to attempt a tackle, therefore he didn't miss one. See warra mean?

Mickado wrote:Sin, there's more to defense than tackling.

For example, Dan Parks is a poor defender. He left a massive gap which Heaslip walked through to put O'Brien in against Cardiff. The gap was so big he didn't even have a chance to attempt a tackle, therefore he didn't miss one. See warra mean?

I do see what you mean. Munster have one of the best defences in the Magners (conceeding 14 tries so far). Cave is Ulster's captain of Defence, and Ulster have let in 23 tries. The Ospresys have let in 13 & Scarlets 14 (both teams not known for having brilliant defence).

Sin é wrote:

Mickado wrote:Sin, there's more to defense than tackling.

For example, Dan Parks is a poor defender. He left a massive gap which Heaslip walked through to put O'Brien in against Cardiff. The gap was so big he didn't even have a chance to attempt a tackle, therefore he didn't miss one. See warra mean?

I do see what you mean. Munster have one of the best defences in the Magners (conceeding 14 tries so far). Cave is Ulster's captain of Defence, and Ulster have let in 23 tries. The Ospresys have let in 13 & Scarlets 14 (both teams not known for having brilliant defence).

Sin.. you are a joke my friend. Though you do bring me some laughs, and I would get bored without your wonderful posts!

And I would assume the majority of those tries came from the Leinster match against our youth also

WHEN DOES DECCIE NAME THE TEAM I CANNOT TAKE THIS ANYMORE.

Rugby is a team game - maybe the other 14 take some of the blame.

Cave is an excellent organizer with a sharp rugby brain

Sin é wrote:I notice that against Clermont & Leicester, Cave missed a few tackles (3). Considering he only made 7 tackles in the two games, that is a high proportion between two game when the opposition is a bit stronger.

I read elsewhere that Cave is Ulster's captain of defence - if that is the case, he isn't doing a great job as they missed 12 (out of 61) in the game against Clermont. In the Leicester game Ulster missed 14 out of 92 tackles made.

In the world cup warmup games Earls played in the centre x 2 times.

France in France - 5/1 (made 5, missed 1)
England in Aviva - 6/1.

The time he played in the centre against Wales (scoring 2 tries) his tally was 11/0. (Roberts & Hook were the centres).

I've had a quick look through Earls' tackling record in the HCup - and its pretty good. Certainly as good, if not better than Caves.

Info is from scrum.com

You know if you had actually led with your last 3 words you could have saved people reading what is in essence an irrelevant post. Can we not please just leave this futile debate.

geoff998rugby wrote:Rugby is a team game - maybe the other 14 take some of the blame.

Cave is an excellent organizer with a sharp rugby brain

He is the Captain of Defence - which has conceeded 23 tries so far this season in the Magners.

Cave has missed a fair few tackles for somone who is lauded as being a good tackler and Ulster have leaked a fair few tries in the Rabbo this year and Cave is the organiser.

geoff998rugby wrote:Rugby is a team game - maybe the other 14 take some of the blame.

Funny you should say that, geoff. I was going to say WHY can't we even change the Name of this Thing - as it's perfectly obvious it's moved far, far away from Earls. I'd say it's gone to a new Galaxy, with lots of matematicians and statisticians who aren't much good with phasers on stun but who can certainly lull you into a stupor on 'number of linebreaks per 7.30 PM start home game per season on an empty stomach.'

Standulstermen wrote:

Sin é wrote:I notice that against Clermont & Leicester, Cave missed a few tackles (3). Considering he only made 7 tackles in the two games, that is a high proportion between two game when the opposition is a bit stronger.

I read elsewhere that Cave is Ulster's captain of defence - if that is the case, he isn't doing a great job as they missed 12 (out of 61) in the game against Clermont. In the Leicester game Ulster missed 14 out of 92 tackles made.

In the world cup warmup games Earls played in the centre x 2 times.

France in France - 5/1 (made 5, missed 1)
England in Aviva - 6/1.

The time he played in the centre against Wales (scoring 2 tries) his tally was 11/0. (Roberts & Hook were the centres).

I've had a quick look through Earls' tackling record in the HCup - and its pretty good. Certainly as good, if not better than Caves.

Info is from scrum.com

You know if you had actually led with your last 3 words you could have saved people reading what is in essence an irrelevant post. Can we not please just leave this futile debate.

The tries conceeded are from the Rabbo website.

And even the tackles made etc. are comparative if you don't agree with the methodology they use when collating them.

SecretFly wrote:

geoff998rugby wrote:Rugby is a team game - maybe the other 14 take some of the blame.

Funny you should say that, geoff. I was going to say WHY can't we even change the Name of this Thing - as it's perfectly obvious it's moved far, far away from Earls. I'd say it's gone to a new Galaxy, with lots of matematicians and statisticians who aren't much good with phasers on stun but who can certainly lull you into a stupor on 'number of linebreaks per 7.30 PM start home game per season on an empty stomach.'

Are the verbal claims of fans more relevant than actual data.

BTW, its a team game for Earls as well - and he is not the Captain of Defence - but somehow or other he is the poor defender/tackler.

Sin é wrote:

SecretFly wrote:I'd say it's gone to a new Galaxy, with lots of matematicians and statisticians who aren't much good with phasers on stun but who can certainly lull you into a stupor on 'number of linebreaks per 7.30 PM start home game per season on an empty stomach.'

Are the verbal claims of fans more relevant than actual data.

Sin é, I'm not at all pointing you out exclusively as the only one digging this topic into the ground with stats. There have been quite a few. Hell, I've even been known to engage in the old stat battle myself occasionally.
My point was more that the decent into intricate stats symbolically means that people have made up their minds on this subject a long time ago and won't be changing it no matter what the stat is that is thrown at them.
I'm saying there are fourteen other positions in a side and we have (is it three weeks left) to discuss perhaps other positions, other topics. Nope, not trying to force anyone away from this one - it's a free world. But just pointing out that perhaps nearly 600 posts on Earls at 13 is a tad like overkill when it's a team game.

But carry on. I still find it entertaining...in ways. I always like to see how many twists a tale can manage as it passes from one teller to another.

Sin é wrote:Are the verbal claims of fans more relevant than actual data.

YES. With a capital Y.

Your data tells us nothing about how tries are conceded. For instance, an intercept try has more to do with poor decision making in attack than defence. And your data is from a source known for inaccuracy.

So you can see why its not taken seriously.

Ah Hersh, ever the James Blunt. True, in 2009 Ealrs had a shocking game in his first Lions game as a 21 year old. However, as any match report of any game he played thereafter on the tour he improved. Even planks like Stephen Jones (the journo) saw that.

But dont take my word for it, dig out the matches online or DVD etc and watch for yourself. You might have to open boh eyes but you'll see he was & is a good player, but dont worry, I dont expect you to admit that.

Look. We all know our Deccie well. Earls is Deccie's boy prodigy. Deccie is loyal to the point of distraction. => Earls will play at 13.

We have Trimble, Bowe, Fitzgerald and McFadden who can play on the wing.

There's a stat that wont go away.

Is that it? Are we there yet Da?

Id die laughing if it turns out its Darcy & McFadden in the centre.

Notch wrote:

Sin é wrote:Are the verbal claims of fans more relevant than actual data.

YES. With a capital Y.

Your data tells us nothing about how tries are conceded. For instance, an intercept try has more to do with poor decision making in attack than defence. And your data is from a source known for inaccuracy.

So you can see why its not taken seriously.

OK, has Cave missed any tackles in the games against Clermont or Leicester (I'm ignoring Aironi as they would not be particularly challenging)?

Have Ulster conceeded 23 tries in the Rabbo Direct?

Do you think Ulster is good as a defensive unit? If you think its good, do you think Cave as the Captain of Defence should get some of the credit. If you think its poor, does that reflect on him as the Captain of the Defence?

SecretFly wrote:

Sin é wrote:

SecretFly wrote:I'd say it's gone to a new Galaxy, with lots of matematicians and statisticians who aren't much good with phasers on stun but who can certainly lull you into a stupor on 'number of linebreaks per 7.30 PM start home game per season on an empty stomach.'

Are the verbal claims of fans more relevant than actual data.

Sin é, I'm not at all pointing you out exclusively as the only one digging this topic into the ground with stats. There have been quite a few. Hell, I've even been known to engage in the old stat battle myself occasionally.
My point was more that the decent into intricate stats symbolically means that people have made up their minds on this subject a long time ago and won't be changing it no matter what the stat is that is thrown at them.
I'm saying there are fourteen other positions in a side and we have (is it three weeks left) to discuss perhaps other positions, other topics. Nope, not trying to force anyone away from this one - it's a free world. But just pointing out that perhaps nearly 600 posts on Earls at 13 is a tad like overkill when it's a team game.

But carry on. I still find it entertaining...in ways. I always like to see how many twists a tale can manage as it passes from one teller to another.

So, do you want to start 14 threads for each position ?

There are only about 3 spots that will provide any discussion - there won't be much discussion about the starting front row for a start

The Stat on the number of times I've started a thread on any position, on any Irish side, on any forum site, in January of any given year amounts to - zero.

Like I said.... I just meant that .... - oh forget it. I give up. Set your phaser on 'Kill'

Sin é wrote:
OK, has Cave missed any tackles in the games against Clermont or Leicester (I'm ignoring Aironi as they would not be particularly challenging)?

Have Ulster conceeded 23 tries in the Rabbo Direct?

Do you think Ulster is good as a defensive unit? If you think its good, do you think Cave as the Captain of Defence should get some of the credit. If you think its poor, does that reflect on him as the Captain of the Defence?

Yes, Yes, Not particularly and Not necessarily.

Is Cave still a better defender than Earls? Yes.

I could elaborate on these answers Sin but it would go over your head I'm afraid and you'd only go and pull some more drivel of scrum.com.

Ah Rodders. Stats are the only thing the man has sin his Life.

Be nice. Keep promoting Ulster starlets who will never make it.

There goes two Christmas cards. Bu88er.

Gibson...if they are Ulster starlets then they have already made it...

That's it, end of the debate sorry guys.

I've heard his quit playing rugby and has decided to be BOD's right hand man, BOD has released a statement saying that from now on he'll be doing odd jobs around the house and cleaning his boots you know that sort of stuff, Oh no wait, his not fit to do that either.