Lions 2017

First topic message reminder :

Looking at the recent internationals and to beat allblack you need pace and vision so this is my team so far! 1.m.vunipola 2.hartley 3.furlong 4.itoje 5.kruis 6.faletau 7.stander 8. B.vunipola 9. Youngs 10.ford 11.watson 12.farrell 13.joseph 14.l.williams 15. Hogg 16.best 17.mcgrath 18.lee 19 .henderson 20.o'brien 21.murray 22.henshaw 23.north

agreed.

My money at the moment would be on Ford starting at 10 with either Farrell at 12 or Halfpenny at 15.

The latter option would make a henshaw/Joseph centre partnership possible.

I'd much prefer to see a more creative 15 chosen than Halfpenny. If he's only in for his kicking (which wasn't awesome during the AIs it has to be said) I start to get flashbacks to South Africa 1997 and Neil Jenkins, chosen at Full Back put chosen just for his boot. He was terrible at full back! At least Halfpenny has some good fullback qualities and experience. But for me it has to be someone like Hogg or Liam Williams, but out of those two Hogg is the better Fullback on form.

TJ wrote:I don't rate Farrell at all. What he does is good for sure - but what he can't do is important and he simply does not have the extra skills in putting the guys outside him away a top 10 needs. too slow between the ears. To beat the all blacks you need tries and thus you need a ten who can consistently put the outside backs into space.

Do you mean like he does consistently for the European Champions?

TJ wrote:Improved yes - but not at the level a top ten needs. why does Jones play Ford at 10?

That is obvious. Because Ford is better at ten than any of the other options are at twelve.

Griff wrote:I'd much prefer to see a more creative 15 chosen than Halfpenny. If he's only in for his kicking (which wasn't awesome during the AIs it has to be said) I start to get flashbacks to South Africa 1997 and Neil Jenkins, chosen at Full Back put chosen just for his boot. He was terrible at full back! At least Halfpenny has some good fullback qualities and experience. But for me it has to be someone like Hogg or Liam Williams, but out of those two Hogg is the better Fullback on form.

In 2013 Half scored 49 out of the 79 points in the 3 tests, including a try. He should be selected for his points scoring ability.

Griff - I don't disagree with your analysis of halfpenny vs Williams, Hogg etc, but given that Ford is the most creative 10 but not the strongest place kicker, theres going to have to be a trade-off somewhere. You either give up ford's creativity in favour of a better kicker at 10 or you find a spot elsewhere for one.

On a different note, how good do people thing Tadhg Furlong is? A potential starter? I'd expect Sinckler to make a big push for a tour spot in the next six months, but perhaps it would be too much to take two young tightheads like those two.

Too soon for Furlong unless the other tightheads all get injured.

thomh wrote:Griff - I don't disagree with your analysis of halfpenny vs Williams, Hogg etc, but given that Ford is the most creative 10 but not the strongest place kicker, theres going to have to be a trade-off somewhere. You either give up ford's creativity in favour of a better kicker at 10 or you find a spot elsewhere for one.

On a different note, how good do people thing Tadhg Furlong is? A potential starter? I'd expect Sinckler to make a big push for a tour spot in the next six months, but perhaps it would be too much to take two young tightheads like those two.

Currently for Furlong and Cole are the front runners.

Furlong and Sinckler both impressed, Cole looked off the pace for much of the AIs. That said, I guess that Cole and Nel would be in pole position now, with Furlong a strong contender for the 3rd spot.

A lot could change in the 6N, though. If Sinckler continues to improve he could force his way into contention, because he offers so much in the loose.

Well Gatland already showed that he's open to taking a bolter as the third prop with Vunipola in 2013, so I wouldn't be at all surprised.

Nel needs to have a good 6N having been out injured recently. I think he is probably the best around tho

Gwlad wrote:

Griff wrote:I'd much prefer to see a more creative 15 chosen than Halfpenny. If he's only in for his kicking (which wasn't awesome during the AIs it has to be said) I start to get flashbacks to South Africa 1997 and Neil Jenkins, chosen at Full Back put chosen just for his boot. He was terrible at full back! At least Halfpenny has some good fullback qualities and experience. But for me it has to be someone like Hogg or Liam Williams, but out of those two Hogg is the better Fullback on form.

In 2013 Half scored 49 out of the 79 points in the 3 tests, including a try. He should be selected for his points scoring ability.

I never get this argument about kickers getting a load of points

The main kicker of course is going to get loads more points than anyone else

But it is the team that get them into the position to kick them

Most kickers get around 80% of kicks now a days so for that you could replace any kicker and not reduce the points and not affect the game one bit

It is what that kicker does as well (i.e. The real rugby)

Riskysports wrote:

Gwlad wrote:

Griff wrote:I'd much prefer to see a more creative 15 chosen than Halfpenny. If he's only in for his kicking (which wasn't awesome during the AIs it has to be said) I start to get flashbacks to South Africa 1997 and Neil Jenkins, chosen at Full Back put chosen just for his boot. He was terrible at full back! At least Halfpenny has some good fullback qualities and experience. But for me it has to be someone like Hogg or Liam Williams, but out of those two Hogg is the better Fullback on form.

In 2013 Half scored 49 out of the 79 points in the 3 tests, including a try. He should be selected for his points scoring ability.

I never get this argument about kickers getting a load of points

The main kicker of course is going to get loads more points than anyone else

But it is the team that get them into the position to kick them

Most kickers get around 80% of kicks now a days so for that you could replace any kicker and not reduce the points and not affect the game one bit

It is what that kicker does as well (i.e. The real rugby)

'Real rugby' is about scoring points and winning. Kicking points is part of the game. Every % point that a kicker offers in his conversion rate lends itself to success. Kickers are part of real rugby and i never get the argument that their kicking ability somehow infers they are less able as a player because they are so prolific with the boot; the fact that the last 2 Lions tours were won because of the exceptional performance of kickers rather illustrates the point that a good kicker is important, a great kicker can make all the difference between success and failure. Ask Jonny, or Jannie De Beer or Neil Jenkins what they think of the difference kicking can make to a game. Half is the most consistent points scorer in NH rugby from the boot, that and that alone gets him the nod at 15, even though i would love to see Hogg there.

Gwlad wrote:

'Real rugby' is about scoring points and winning.

I look forward to the English and Irish Lions.

I also look forward to your support.

Gwlad wrote:

Riskysports wrote:

Gwlad wrote:

Griff wrote:I'd much prefer to see a more creative 15 chosen than Halfpenny. If he's only in for his kicking (which wasn't awesome during the AIs it has to be said) I start to get flashbacks to South Africa 1997 and Neil Jenkins, chosen at Full Back put chosen just for his boot. He was terrible at full back! At least Halfpenny has some good fullback qualities and experience. But for me it has to be someone like Hogg or Liam Williams, but out of those two Hogg is the better Fullback on form.

In 2013 Half scored 49 out of the 79 points in the 3 tests, including a try. He should be selected for his points scoring ability.

I never get this argument about kickers getting a load of points

The main kicker of course is going to get loads more points than anyone else

But it is the team that get them into the position to kick them

Most kickers get around 80% of kicks now a days so for that you could replace any kicker and not reduce the points and not affect the game one bit

It is what that kicker does as well (i.e. The real rugby)

'Real rugby' is about scoring points and winning. Kicking points is part of the game. Every % point that a kicker offers in his conversion rate lends itself to success. Kickers are part of real rugby and i never get the argument that their kicking ability somehow infers they are less able as a player because they are so prolific with the boot; the fact that the last 2 Lions tours were won because of the exceptional performance of kickers rather illustrates the point that a good kicker is important, a great kicker can make all the difference between success and failure

I am not saying a great kicker is not important and an important part of the game

But I get confused when pundits and fans stated they scored x number of points so they are great as they scored more that others.

I think halfpenny on the last tour was a fantastic kicker AND player exceptionally well in most other aspects as well

That is the difference.

Cyril wrote:

Gwlad wrote:

'Real rugby' is about scoring points and winning.

I look forward to the English and Irish Lions.

I also look forward to your support.

Lead by Hartley no doubt.
You forgot the Scots…how arrogant. I am sure that the English contingent will be World Class……amazing really that we haven't even played the 6 Nations yet and you've already decided there is no place for Scots and Welsh players when the boss and his main sidekick are Welsh coaches.
But if you're right I am sure the support will be much more magnanimous in defeat than was the support for the victorious Welsh Lions in 2013.

Riskysports wrote:

Gwlad wrote:

Riskysports wrote:

Gwlad wrote:

Griff wrote:I'd much prefer to see a more creative 15 chosen than Halfpenny. If he's only in for his kicking (which wasn't awesome during the AIs it has to be said) I start to get flashbacks to South Africa 1997 and Neil Jenkins, chosen at Full Back put chosen just for his boot. He was terrible at full back! At least Halfpenny has some good fullback qualities and experience. But for me it has to be someone like Hogg or Liam Williams, but out of those two Hogg is the better Fullback on form.

In 2013 Half scored 49 out of the 79 points in the 3 tests, including a try. He should be selected for his points scoring ability.

I never get this argument about kickers getting a load of points

The main kicker of course is going to get loads more points than anyone else

But it is the team that get them into the position to kick them

Most kickers get around 80% of kicks now a days so for that you could replace any kicker and not reduce the points and not affect the game one bit

It is what that kicker does as well (i.e. The real rugby)

'Real rugby' is about scoring points and winning. Kicking points is part of the game. Every % point that a kicker offers in his conversion rate lends itself to success. Kickers are part of real rugby and i never get the argument that their kicking ability somehow infers they are less able as a player because they are so prolific with the boot; the fact that the last 2 Lions tours were won because of the exceptional performance of kickers rather illustrates the point that a good kicker is important, a great kicker can make all the difference between success and failure

I am not saying a great kicker is not important and an important part of the game

But I get confused when pundits and fans stated they scored x number of points so they are great as they scored more that others.

I think halfpenny on the last tour was a fantastic kicker AND player exceptionally well in most other aspects as well

That is the difference.

?

Kickers should be compared only with other kickers on conversion rates but if one player offers much the same as another but their kicking can bring 20 points to the scoreboard then clearly they are the better player in terms of scoring points. Much as i would love to see Hogg at 15 if there is a need for a kicker Half gets the nod because he produces more for the team.

There won't be a need because Sexton & or Farrell will be starting & if Daly comes into the equation he kicks longer than anyone & has more to his game than 1/2p.

You will not beat the all blacks with a game based around goalkicking. You will need to score multiple tries each game

Gwlad wrote:

Riskysports wrote:

Gwlad wrote:

Riskysports wrote:

Gwlad wrote:

Griff wrote:I'd much prefer to see a more creative 15 chosen than Halfpenny. If he's only in for his kicking (which wasn't awesome during the AIs it has to be said) I start to get flashbacks to South Africa 1997 and Neil Jenkins, chosen at Full Back put chosen just for his boot. He was terrible at full back! At least Halfpenny has some good fullback qualities and experience. But for me it has to be someone like Hogg or Liam Williams, but out of those two Hogg is the better Fullback on form.

In 2013 Half scored 49 out of the 79 points in the 3 tests, including a try. He should be selected for his points scoring ability.

I never get this argument about kickers getting a load of points

The main kicker of course is going to get loads more points than anyone else

But it is the team that get them into the position to kick them

Most kickers get around 80% of kicks now a days so for that you could replace any kicker and not reduce the points and not affect the game one bit

It is what that kicker does as well (i.e. The real rugby)

'Real rugby' is about scoring points and winning. Kicking points is part of the game. Every % point that a kicker offers in his conversion rate lends itself to success. Kickers are part of real rugby and i never get the argument that their kicking ability somehow infers they are less able as a player because they are so prolific with the boot; the fact that the last 2 Lions tours were won because of the exceptional performance of kickers rather illustrates the point that a good kicker is important, a great kicker can make all the difference between success and failure

I am not saying a great kicker is not important and an important part of the game

But I get confused when pundits and fans stated they scored x number of points so they are great as they scored more that others.

I think halfpenny on the last tour was a fantastic kicker AND player exceptionally well in most other aspects as well

That is the difference.

?

Kickers should be compared only with other kickers on conversion rates but if one player offers much the same as another but their kicking can bring 20 points to the scoreboard then clearly they are the better player in terms of scoring points. Much as i would love to see Hogg at 15 if there is a need for a kicker Half gets the nod because he produces more for the team.

But that is the entire point. Most of the kickers (Farrel, Halfpenny etc) are equally consistent. So we should be looking at other aspects of their game.

If we have 2 kickers of similar standard, then I would want to best option for bringing more to the team.

The whole kicker first, then player, in my mind is the wrong way round

Halfpenny isn't the best full back in Wales let alone for the Lions. The argument of kicking falls over when you have Sexton, Farrell and Bigger likely to be involved as well.

TJ wrote:You will not beat the all blacks with a game based around goalkicking.  You will need to score multiple tries each game

Probably true, and something Gatland himself has stated ... or at least that they need to be adventurous.
So yes most likely the starting 10 wont be Biggar or Farrell on that basis. But having a bench option who has nerve, solid goal and tactical kicking, and who doesn't make errors to gift the opposition soft scores is a perfect foil for the more attacking/creative/fruity starter.

I know you have huge personal issues with Farrell on the basis that you didn't rate him early career and cant admit you were wrong, but he is one of the best fly halves out there, and has done a surprisingly good job for England at 12 and has played test rugby at 13. None of the other serious contenders for the 10 shirt offer cover on other positions. Only Sexton matches him for pedigree.
The argument that he's not playing test rugby at 10 doesn't hold much water, he's playing top level European and Jeff rugby there, and is well experienced in the position.

There will be at least 3 10's picked, Farrell has a strong chance of being one along with Sexton, Ford and Biggar ...Russell Id see as the least likely of the 5 as the one with the most glaring limitations and fruitiness.

I doubt Farrell will be first choice for the starters shirt though, and could miss out altogether. Sexton is arguably the big star, Ford the most creative, and Biggar the most Welsh. Farrell is the most "dependable" and flexible...arguably the best bench option if paired with a more creative starter (then theres the idea of picking established partnerships, although it would be a surprise to see him line up at 12 for the Lions as a starter)

Its going to be the source of a lot of whining whoever gets picked. But whilst scoring some tries is going to be pretty important Id like to think we can close out games and take the 3 and two pointers on offer as well as playing fast and loose and hoping to win a shoot out. Indeed in playing that attacking game you really don't want players who are prone to making big mistakes being told to play with gay abandon, that's when things can go hatefully wrong.

As someone mentioned above England have won big and scored a lot of tries against New Zealand with Farrell as starting 10. As have Ireland with Sexton. As it stands at the moment they would be my two picks for a Lions side, with Farrell on the bench.


If we end up with Halfpenny at fullback because we have an unreliable kicker at 10 that really is an epic fail on the " need to score tries" mantra. Even Howley came out with reservations around him at 15 for Wales. I really don't see that happening. He will most likely tour because Wales but he has really lost the attacking flair he had on the wing in his early career. The guy has a lot of pedigree but if you're looking to put together a side that will win a cricket score game then there has to be better options in the outside backs.

Not an endorsement of anybody, but the FH picks for Oz were Sexton and Farrell.

Given we have the same coach you'd have to say that for anyone else to get ahead of those two they would have to be playing significantly better than either of them. Given how well Ireland and England are playing at the moment that is a tough task.

ESPN's team of the week,

15. Simon Zebo (Munster)

The Munster fullback was involved in much of the good work during his side's mauling of Leicester. Countered well, led the kick chase and scored a lovely try linking up with Conor Murray.

14. Keelan Giles (Ospreys)

This kid has serious pace. The 18 year old Ospreys winger scored two tries against Grenoble, one of which from 60 metres out where he burned several defenders to score. 11 tries from seven games.

13. Luke Marshall (Ulster)

Two crucial tries for Ulster as they got a big win over Clermont. Ran a beautiful line on the first try to open the scoring. Dealt with the threat of the dangerous Wesley Fofana.

12. Garry Ringrose (Leinster)

The young Ireland centre looks right at home as Leinster continue to build from strength to strength. Ringrose ran 49 metres from his 12 carries and scored the opening try against Northampton.

11. Sean Maitland (Saracens)

Prospered against a weak Sale outfit. A brace of tries as Saracens routed Sharks. Second finish was a lovely in and out to make his opposite number look like he wasn't there.

10. Finn Russell (Glasgow)

Pulled the strings in one of Glasgow's biggest wins in Europe. 13 points off the boot and a try assist, not a bad day out especially when you're playing opposite Dan Carter.

9. Conor Murray (Munster)

It was touted as a big match up as the Ireland scrum-half went up against England's Ben Youngs, but there was no doubt who had the better match as Munster thrashed Leicester. Box kicking and passing was superb, and his cheeky pass to find Simon Zebo to score was magic.

1. Jack McGrath (Leinster)

Ireland have built some serious depth in the front row department. The Leinster loosehead along with his mate Tadhg Furlong put in a big shift against a Northampton side who pride themselves on their performance at the set-piece.

2. Rory Best (Ulster)

Captained Ulster brilliantly to an impressive win over Clermont. 10 lineout wins from as many throws, and did his core jobs well in a weekend where Dylan Hartley's stocks plummeted as a swinging arm saw him red carded and facing suspension.

3. Tadhg Furlong (Leinster)

A rare sight seeing a tighthead prop awarded man of the match in the Champions Cup but it was thoroughly deserved for the Ireland international. Bossed the scrum, and worked hard along the field, as he said in his post-match interview he certainly met Northampton "horn to horn."

4. Maro Itoje (Saracens)

Super outing from Maro who continues to grow after missing the autumn internationals through injury. Was all over Sale's lineout with four steals, while he also beat four defenders with ball in hand.

5. Joe Launchbury (Wasps)


Could've easily been awarded man of the match as Wasps beat Connacht. Came to the fore when it mattered most with two big turnovers at the ruck as Connacht looked dangerous, and scored his side's bonus-point try as he lumbered through from 20 metres out.

6. CJ Stander (Munster)

Monstrous game. Made a big 30-metre run early on which set the tone for Munster. Stander finished with 67 running metres from 20 carries, 10 tackles and four turnovers. How South Africa let him go is baffling.

7. Sam Warburton (Cardiff)

Led Cardiff well in the big upset result in the Challenge Cup as the Blues beat in-form Bath. Got around the park well and played a hand in two of his side's tries.

8. Nathan Hughes (Wasps)

Continues to impress while Billy Vunipola sits on the sidelines through injury. Did well to spin out of a tackle to score a try at a pivotal moment, ended the game with 62 metres gained from 11 carries.

Any more bolters who may come through who've not established themselves in their country's side yet? Thinking maybe, Daly, Slade, Robson for England. George as well though well within the setup.

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:ESPN's team of the week,
...
7. Sam Warburton (Cardiff)

Led Cardiff well in the big upset result in the Challenge Cup as the Blues beat in-form Bath. Got around the park well and played a hand in two of his side's tries.
....

You can only beat what is in front of you, and on paper this is a great result. Not such a surprise when you look at the team Bath put out

Maitland is a player who might take a wing slot. He's playing well right now and will most likely be a key feature in a Sarries squad in the lime light all the way up to selection day.

No 7&1/2 wrote:Any more bolters who may come through who've not established themselves in their country's side yet? Thinking maybe, Daly, Slade, Robson for England. George as well though well within the setup.

Van Der Flier and Furlong must have a real shot.

Right, let's deal with this goalkicker issue, then.

The most accurate assessment of how good a goalkicker is is the Saffer website goalkickers.co.za.

They assess not just how many kicks were successfully taken but how difficult the kicks were. Their methodology is here for people to read at their leisure:
http://goalkickers.co.za/#aboutSection

They produced this table for all kickers from the recent AIs series:

[th]RANK[/th][th]KICKER[/th][th]SUCCESS %[/th][th]AVG DIFFICULTY RATING(OUT OF 10)[/th][th]KICKER RATING(OUT OF 10)[/th][th]VALUE ADDED**[/th]

	7	Gordon McRorie	100.0% (3 out of 3)	7.13	10.000	2
	9	Elliot Daly	100.0% (1 out of 1)	9.45	10.000	2
	15	Ruan Combrinck	100.0% (1 out of 1)	7.83	10.000	1
	6	Elton Jantjies	100.0% (3 out of 3)	5.23	8.910	3
	4	Carlo Canna	100.0% (5 out of 5)	4.87	8.810	3
	1	Paddy Jackson	100.0% (13 out of 13)	3.99	7.760	6
	12	Edoardo Padovani	100.0% (2 out of 2)	3.69	7.720	1
	3	Yu Tamura	90.0% (9 out of 10)	4.42	6.890	3
	11	Baptiste Serin	100.0% (5 out of 5)	2.61	6.410	1
	14	Sonatane Takulua	83.3% (5 out of 6)	4.77	6.260	1
	17	Tommy Allan	100.0% (2 out of 2)	2.05	6.160	0
	8	Beauden Barrett	91.7% (11 out of 12)	3.15	5.980	2
	13	Aaron Cruden	100.0% (7 out of 7)	1.52	5.930	1
	18	Conor Murray	100.0% (1 out of 1)	1.66	5.690	0
	16	Greig Laidlaw	82.4% (14 out of 17)	4.03	5.540	1
	2	Leigh Halfpenny	81.8% (18 out of 22)	4.05	5.410	3
	19	Juan Martin Hernandez	100.0% (2 out of 2)	0.88	5.390	0
	5	Bernard Foley	80.0% (16 out of 20)	4.17	5.370	3
	10	Nicolas Sanchez	84.2% (16 out of 19)	3.56	5.360	2
	20	Amanak Lotoahea	100.0% (1 out of 1)	0.01	5.080	0
	21	Patrick Lambie	71.4% (5 out of 7)	4.89	4.940	0
	32	Owen Farrell	70.8% (17 out of 24)	4.31	4.300	-4
	22	Lima Sopoaga	66.7% (2 out of 3)	4.57	4.050	0
	25	Jonathan Sexton	71.4% (5 out of 7)	3.86	4.040	-1
	24	Maxime Machenaud	66.7% (10 out of 15)	4.64	3.950	-1
	23	Patrick Fa'apale	50.0% (1 out of 2)	5.05	1.790	-1
	29	Merab Kvirikashvili	50.0% (2 out of 4)	4.96	1.760	-2
	26	Johan Goosen	0.0% (0 out of 1)	8.47	0.000	-1
	27	Finn Russell	0.0% (0 out of 1)	6.59	0.000	-1
	28	Scott Spedding	0.0% (0 out of 1)	9.14	0.000	-1
	30	George Ford	33.3% (1 out of 3)	3.58	0.000	-3
	31	Nemani Nadolo	0.0% (0 out of 3)	7.62	0.000	-3
	33	Joey Carbery	25.0% (1 out of 4)	5.36	0.000	-5

They show that the most accurate of the 'go to' NH kickers was actually Paddy Jackson, then Greig Laidlaw, then Halfpenny. 

The question for everyone is whether the percentage increase that you get with Halfpenny over anyone else (if that is whom you are asking to kick) is worth the opportunity cost that comes with losing another player to put Halfpenny in there. 

For me, it's not even a decision. The likes of Hogg or Liam Williams bring so very much more in every other facet in their game, that I would not lose the skills of either one of those players to accommodate Halfpenny. 

Either that, or we just agree to select Laidlaw. 

Would be great if it were a bigger sample of games/kicks George!

Still with Daly as the first choice wing center and fullback its does mean they can pick anyone they like at 10 as he can do all the kicking as well.

Joking aside the kicking percentages of the NZ pair are pretty frightening. You cant argue that the All Blacks aren't treating this aspect of the game as important.

Good points in that big post gooseberry. Its not I have personal issues with Farrell - tho - its that i want a 10 whos main attribute is breaking open defences.

Rest of your analysis pretty good tho and you are right - he could make a very effective "closer". As for playing centre - we have plenty of good specialist centres and while I accept he has a lot of experience there its not like the lions have any shortage of good cenre specialists ,

Gooseberry wrote:Would be great if it were a bigger sample of games/kicks George!

If you go on the website, they do analyses on every major tournament over the past couple of years (including the last RwC). 

Incidentally, Barrett is an awful goalkicker, percentage wise. Quite a few All Blacks tries are scored under the posts.

Farrell would be my fly-half without a moments hesitation.

Best goal-kicker (imo).
Defensively very strong.
Winning mentality/leadership (6N Grand Slam, Aviva Prem & European Cup holder).

May not be as good with ball in hand as Ford or Sexton but it's not a weakness.

We have a lack of play maker 12s though. I suggest that's not what Gatland will look for there anyway.

And no I don't think Farrell is defensively strong, a step below Ford currently.

No 7&1/2 wrote:We have a lack of play maker 12s though. I suggest that's not what Gatland will look for there anyway.

Correct - Gatland has played with a smash merchant at 12 for years and I cannot see that changing. 

The likes of Henshaw, Dunbar and Roberts are the obvious candidates although JR's body seems to have taken a real hammering in recent years. Physician, heal thyself.

Tuilagi and Te'o as well possibly. You never know if Mallinder has a stormer he could be the best of both worlds but 99% too soon for him.

Interesting website, George. They certainly go to some lengths to try to analyse the performance of kickers.

I think they may be trying a bit hard to apply statistical analysis at too granular a level. Because each kick is a binary event - it either makes or it doesn't - it overemphasises the impact of someone making or missing any individual kick. Even a series probably isn't enough to form a reasonable view of an individual kicker this way - you probably need to look at a whole season.

Daly, for instance, scores highly for making one very difficult kick, and Jackson for making all his fairly easy ones. Whereas Halfpenny made more kicks than either of them but is marked down quite a long way for his misses - and Laidlaw, whose stats are almost identical to Halfpenny, is for some reason rated a better kicker but a lower value add.

What really is interesting, though, is looking at patterns in the different kickers for a given union. It's very noticeable that Sexton and Jackson both have a lower average difficulty than most kickers, as do Barrett and Cruden. Does that imply that their teams will go for the corner unless it's a sitter? Be interesting to watch how that evolves over time.

George Carlin wrote:Gatland has played with a smash merchant at 12 for years and I cannot see that changing. 

There is talk that he's in a Swiss lab trying to merge the genes of SOB and Hartley into one super sub-human Neanderthal unit. He told Hartley about the plan but Hartley didn't wait to hear the details on how you merge the genes. He tried his own theory out at the weekend.

Poorfour wrote: It's very noticeable that Sexton and Jackson both have a lower average difficulty than most kickers, as do Barrett and Cruden. Does that imply that their teams will go for the corner unless it's a sitter? Be interesting to watch how that evolves over time.

I sure hope so. Ruthless engagement is what I'm after. Corner the enemy whenever possible.

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:

Gwlad wrote:

majesticimperialman wrote:Just watched the Sarries v Sale game. And Kruis and Itoje did a dam site better than any think AWJ could do.

So do not think AWJ will go on the Lions tour.

No Gwalad this is not being anti Welsh. It is juts being honest.

That you're being honest just makes me infinitely feel better because you obviously don't have a clue if you don't think he'll even tour. I mean why would you take him right? No reason at all.
Lets just clarify this so i'm not confusing what you're saying…you watched Itoje and Kruis and they're great and that means AWJ won't tour….interesting maths, you didn't watch AWJ last night v Grenoble did you?

Also….. 'any think' are you for real?

That will be Grenoble 3rds by all accounts!

15 changes, I read.

No 7&1/2 wrote:Any more bolters who may come through who've not established themselves in their country's side yet? Thinking maybe, Daly, Slade, Robson for England. George as well though well within the setup.

Not sure he's been mentioned by many but I think Barclay should be in the conversation for open-side.

Had a great game for Scarlets against Toulon and has versatility to cover whole back-row (even though imo he'd still be best at 7).

So we getting anywhere near a consensus for a lions 15 yet?

Sexton at 10 seems as close as we get. Probably Murray with him as there is nothing much between him and Youngs but his familiarity with sexton gives him the nod.

Hogg at FB seems a majority vote if not consensus

Joseph at 13?

NO other position do we seem to have a settled choice. Gatland must have a headache!

some positions like lock we have an embarrassment of riches. Others like tighthead its rather different.

The crucial, absolutely critical question is what emphasis Gatland will place on the then current form of players when choosing his squad. 

The 2005 disaster is quite literally what happens if you choose purely on reputation rather than current form. 

It is generally acknowledged that you need calm heads out there but to pick 'safe' choices in the hope that they 'come good on the day' is the sort of stuff that makes Lions fans incredibly angry.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:

Gwlad wrote:

majesticimperialman wrote:Just watched the Sarries v Sale game. And Kruis and Itoje did a dam site better than any think AWJ could do.

So do not think AWJ will go on the Lions tour.

No Gwalad this is not being anti Welsh. It is juts being honest.

That you're being honest just makes me infinitely feel better because you obviously don't have a clue if you don't think he'll even tour. I mean why would you take him right? No reason at all.
Lets just clarify this so i'm not confusing what you're saying…you watched Itoje and Kruis and they're great and that means AWJ won't tour….interesting maths, you didn't watch AWJ last night v Grenoble did you?

Also….. 'any think' are you for real?

That will be Grenoble 3rds by all accounts!

15 changes, I read.

Just to clarify 1 player from the previous game started against us, 5 of the bench the previous weekend started against us and 2 were on the bench for both games, so hardly 3rd choice. Don't know what the hierarchy is about the players that took part, but going that Grenoble had lost their previous 6 games in succession, I wouldn't mind betting that some who were on the bench the previous weekend were first choice a few weeks earlier.

Finally we were nowhere near full strength either, I could at least change half a dozen from our squad that would enhance our team from the one that started this game, and a few more to our 23.

George Carlin wrote:The crucial, absolutely critical question is what emphasis Gatland will place on the then current form of players when choosing his squad. 

The 2005 disaster is quite literally what happens if you choose purely on reputation rather than current form. 

It is generally acknowledged that you need calm heads out there but to pick 'safe' choices in the hope that they 'come good on the day' is the sort of stuff that makes Lions fans incredibly angry.

George, I'm sure there was an article a few months ago, not sure if it was an interview with Gatland but the general gist of it was that the best 35, 36, 37 selected were not the best players available for every position, some were selected for their personality, affability etc. I expect the same for this tour.
Finally, I was one of the people at the time of the 2009 tour that said Grewcock shouldn't have travelled, because of his hot headedness, we were proved correct, I feel exactly the same about Hartley, he should be nowhere near this Tour.

reallybored wrote:Farrell would be my fly-half without a moments hesitation.

Best goal-kicker (imo).
Defensively very strong.
Winning mentality/leadership (6N Grand Slam, Aviva Prem & European Cup holder).

May not be as good with ball in hand as Ford or Sexton but it's not a weakness.

The reasons you have given dont set him apart from the competition:

Best goal-kicker (imo). - Yes probably better than Sexton here, just.
Defensively very strong. - Not as good defender as Sexton.
Winning mentality/leadership (6N Grand Slam, Aviva Prem & European Cup holder). - Hasn't won as much as Sexton, twice six nations, 3 Heineken cups, 1 Lions tour, multiple pro 12.

Sexton as you say is also better with ball in hand.

I dont see your logic.

Sexton is a gifted flyhalf. My worry is how fragile he is physically. This is a brutal schedule and he can be a bit injury prone. That doesn't mean I wouldn't take him. He might sail through the series unscathed but it's probably worth bearing in mind.

GunsGermsV2 wrote:

reallybored wrote:Farrell would be my fly-half without a moments hesitation.

Best goal-kicker (imo).
Defensively very strong.
Winning mentality/leadership (6N Grand Slam, Aviva Prem & European Cup holder).

May not be as good with ball in hand as Ford or Sexton but it's not a weakness.

The reasons you have given dont set him apart from the competition:

Best goal-kicker (imo). - Yes probably better than Sexton here, just.
Defensively very strong. - Not as good defender as Sexton.
Winning mentality/leadership (6N Grand Slam, Aviva Prem & European Cup holder). - Hasn't won as much as Sexton, twice six nations, 3 Heineken cups, 1 Lions tour, multiple pro 12.

Sexton as you say is also better with ball in hand.

I dont see your logic.

What are you basing Sexton being a better defender on?

When did Sexton last win something?

Ok - so we don't even have consensus over Sexton!