Political round up.............

First topic message reminder :

LionsV2 wrote:

Galted wrote:

As much as I agree with you that much of the reason for the Leave vote was the racism and pig-ignorance of the likes of Lionsv2 and old people, I'm not sure the questions you're asking are particularly relevant.  I'd quite like a cut in local crime but couldn't name a single local criminal.

I beg your pardon?

No doubt the mods will do nothing about that.

He said you were “PIG IGNORANT”. I’ve heard of hard of hearing before but not hard of reading.

I think people are going to be disappointed if they want to see a winner at the Elections..

Labour should poll well in multicultural London..

Tories should do well taking 100 UKIP seats and some Labour in the Midlands.

Expect some victories for the Lib dems in rural areas..

Don't think it will be career ending for any leader.

Already voted in the local elections as had postal vote - voted Green. My council is Labour run and I'm generally happy with how they are doing (despite the cuts they have maintained a lot of services that have been cut back in other boroughs) though they have such a large majority there are couple of signs of complacency creeping in. Therefore I'd be happy for a few more opposition councillors, and the Greens are generally pushing Labour to be even more radical on housing, in addition to the environmental policies so they got my vote.

Fair enough...I voted Green in June 17...Had the luxury of a non marginal..

The Lib dems have pretty much gone from 5/4 to 1/3 overnight to hold the borough of Sutton..

Whiether it is Windrush or Postal vote counters have been relaying their experiences is another matter.

I will be voting Green for the locals, too.

@Trussman - interesting about Sutton, though to be honest given where we are in the electoral cycle I would have been surprised if the Lib Dems lost that one. Looking at the London councils in more detail, Lib Dems will be expecting to get one out of Richmond and Kingston whilst Labour are challenging hard to win Wandsworth and Hillingdon and are looking to pick up a lot of seats in Kensington and Westminster, though may fall short of winning overall majorities. Barnet is a tricky one to call - until a couple of months ago, due to the council being in disarray and losing their majority I would have made Labour favourites to win this one but the anti-semitism row may damage their chances in an area with large number of Jewish voters.

Labour will hope to win Trafford, the lone Tory controlled local authority in Greater Manchester - this one could be v close. Portsmouth may be an interesting one to watch - UKIP are defending a lot of seats which they are likely to lose, but its unclear on who will benefit the most from this.

What does this Home Secretary have to do to get sacked ??

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:What does this Home Secretary have to do to get sacked ??

More to the point what does this government have to do to be booted out? Calamitous would best sum it up.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:What does this Home Secretary have to do to get sacked ??

More to the point what does this government have to do to be booted out? Calamitous would best sum it up.

Lose a general election.

the recall of mp's act? or doesn't this count?

Someone in the Tory party is doing a number on Amber Rudd..

May comes in to 7/4.....To go this year...

Think she will do ok in the Locals....

Can't see how she survives the Custom's Union headache.

To the surprise of virtually no-one, Sajid Javid is the new home secretary.

I'm glad that the Windrush scandal has had some traction. It feels to me that after years of relentless Sun/Express/Mail scare stories about immigration and the government adopting a pretty UKIP position on the issue that finally the tide has turned, thanks to the outcry on this story, even if just a little bit.

Whilst the likes of Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre will be v happy with the deportation targets, the reality is that implementing the 'hostile environment' has a toll on many on a personal level, and its good this has finally belatedly been brought to the attention of the masses.

The Windrush scandal got the government of the day falling over themselves to make amends.

Telford on the other hand...

Duty281 wrote:

Ent wrote:Local election results will be more interesting than poll results.

Should be Labour dominance in those, no matter what.

8 years of Tory government + protest vote + low turnout + being held in mainly Labour-friendly areas which, with the collapse of UKIP, have little opposition = an easy day in May.

Might have to rein in those expectations a tad, as Labour have suffered a slight hit in polling over the past couple of weeks.

Labour should sweep this government off the board in any seat slightly competitive

except in derby where Labour are not exactly popular due to them screwing up so much...

The Tories have 2/3 of the 13% UKIP vote from last time..

They are also ahead in all the polls..

But are they right ??..

Polls Don't matter now !!

@Trussman: Like other local elections, this set of elections are about which parts of the electorate are most motivated to come out - generally speaking Labour voters tend to stay at home more. However, at this stage of the electoral cycle and with anger mounting in many areas about local authority cuts and Windrush saga I think many Tory supporters won't bother voting whilst more Labour voters will be out in force than usual. That said, the UKIP collapse will benefit the Tories in smaller towns/rural areas (e.g. Great Yarmouth).

I predict the following:

Near collapse of UKIP - with their total no. of councillors left down to around 12.
Labour to win around 150 councillors, and take Barnet, Wandsworth, Trafford, Swindon and a couple of others but miss out on Westminster, Kensington & Chelsea, and Hillingdon.
Tories to do v badly in London and most of the big urban areas, but pick up a few councillors at UKIPs expense in more rural areas, keeping their net losses bit lower than what one might expect.
Lib Dems: to do significantly better than last time, but with patchy results - they'll do well in South West London, retaking at least one out of Richmond and Kingston, and will have some big gains in some areas, but miss out targets in other areas - I reckon they'll pick up around 50 seats.
Greens: to win around a dozen seats, mainly inner London boroughs plus a couple of other metropolitan areas.

well, i voted just now. Can't wait for tomorrows results

What excellent analysis....Cheers..

I think you over state Labour...

Think they will take Barnet but nowhere else in London..

Swindon has Photo ID so they won't take that..

Not sure about some of the others...Can't see Labour taking Trafford..

But who knows...

You certainly are more clued up than me that is for sure.

UKIP will lose all their councillors that were elected four years ago. They’ve already lost half during the course of the cycle, today they will lose the rest. The only councillors they’ll have left, nationally, will be the ones voted in in 2015/2016.

The Tories might actually make small gains, as might the Lib Dems. The elections have come at the worst possible time for Labour, but they should still make significant inroads and be the ‘winners’ of these elections.

Now, I need to sink a couple of vodkas and vote for the Green Party.

Polls are interesting things....

Yougov...Con 42...Lab 38

Comres..Con 40..Lab 40..

Basically the data was the same but the turnout weighting different..

Why I think though polls are useful....Never put too much faith in them..

Noticeable that Tory friendly Yougov have only started showing good leads just before Election time.

Polls can be used to dishearten or invigorate..

@Trussman - you're right, I think I was overstating Labour - I think whilst they will do well on the whole they well miss out on some of those targets, so I'm going for Trafford to go No Overall Control (Labour largest party) and Tories to hang on by fingertips in Wandsworth (no Lib Dem or other councillors outside big two there so its one or other) - I do think Hillingdon could go to No Overall Control though.

Uryu Ishida seems confident that Labour will do badly in Derby. To be fair Labour have struggled a bit in East Midlands of late and there may be some local factors accounting for unpopularity there - I reckon this one will go No Overall Control.

Been reading that the voter ID trials haven't been going well, and apparently its caught out a lot of older (lifelong Tory?) voters - not sure whether it will have too much effect on actual results but I'm expecting to see a few stories come out about it - from what I've read people were just refused a vote without polling station clerks actually marking down whether voters had taken ID with them or not.

well  although NOC was the result i think some of derby will be glad that 1 of those seats was lost by labour was its leaders seat. He imo wasnt doing a good job at all, though surprised it was taken by UKIP.

@Uryu - UKIP have collapsed just about everywhere else so for them to win that seat is really against the prevailling trend.

Still quite a few results to come in, but my summary would be:

UKIP: disastrous night - and since the EU referendum (which was arguably their biggest success story) they are facing an existential crisis - if we stay in the Customs Union though expect a resurgence of sorts.
Conservatives: Held fairly steady on the whole, considering events of the past few months. They have done enough to avoid any immediate challenges to Theresa May. Clearly they are picking up most of the Brexit vote which used to go to UKIP.
Labour: They've done OK but performance has been more patchy than they would have liked. I'm inclined to agree they didn't manage expectations too well. Barnet aside (which is a v disappointing result and where the anti-semitism stuff has hurt them) they've done pretty well in London - look at the number of seats they've picked up in places like Hammersmith & Fulham and Redbridge which used to be Tory councils recently. Plymouth and Trafford are v good results but not a huge amount to cheer other than that so far.
Greens: Better than average, but not spectacular so far. With some more inner London (safe Labour) councils to declare they'll be hoping to pick up more seats.
Lib Dems: The only party who can really claim they've 'won' on the night - fantastic result for them in Richmond, plenty of gains elsewhere off both Tories and Labour and if they can retake Kingston they'll show they're really back as a force in south-west London. I think they're still some way off recovering from the hammering they took after being in the coalition but for once, they'll be smiling

hey, heres hoping Derby is ran better. Though do you think people are looking locally at their options or at whats happening nationally?

Mixed reports on 5 live phone in.

Lots of people saying they voted differently to GE as they were happy with their local council/didn't want a labour council.

A lot of nimby types voting for change in council due to planning permissions currently granted and opposition promising to stop the building.

Some saying they voted a certain way because of party position on leaving eu, some on the big headline grabbers in winrush and anti semitism.

Labours best - and the Tories worst - performance since 1971 and this is still being spun by some as a defeat.

Labour performed below expectations. Everyone else met or exceeded theirs. Boring night.

Labour just finished the night winning 20 seats in Tower Hamlets and taking the Council..

Something in the Election for everybody.

I did write above that I thought it would be draw..

No change of Leaders.....The stalemate continues.

The biggest farce was listening to May trying to paint losing 33 councillors as some sort of a success. If she really believes that then it is an admittance of how dire the Tories have been in power. The Lib Dems will be far the happiest with the results as it is another sign of green shoots of recovery. Labour are disappointed as they set their goals so high but still they did gain 77 councillors so it is certainly more reason to be happier than the Tories.

CaledonianCraig wrote:The biggest farce was listening to May trying to paint losing 33 councillors as some sort of a success..

Well, it is a success - they were expected to lose around 75-100 councillors. She can be happy with how they've done. Happier than Corbyn, certainly.

Duty281 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:The biggest farce was listening to May trying to paint losing 33 councillors as some sort of a success..

Well, it is a success - they were expected to lose around 75-100 councillors. She can be happy with how they've done. Happier than Corbyn, certainly.

I cannot see losing councillors as a success. Losing being the keyword here. I get the idea that it is some form of damage limitation but the fact that is what the Tories were looking for speaks volumes for the political mess they are in. Labour's results are being hyped up as more of a loss yet they are in a mess of their own with anti-semitism so their performance was better.

The opposition usually makes good gains in local elections.

Was an underwhelming performance from labour.

The Tories made gains last May and lost their majority in June..

Suggests Labour struggles to get out the vote until it matters.

Could just say a lot about the last election campaign.

Have to see the turnout stats etc but could be more conservativr voters turned out than normal for locals.

Many possibilities.

Will be interesting to see what statistics come out about turnout but in my opinion in this election on the whole the only people who've been super motivated have been remain minded voters in South West London and Brexit minded voters in Midlands and parts of East England (as well as the odd council where there have been local issues at play e.g. environmental issues in Trafford, which helped deliver 2 seats out of the blue for the Greens).

I've read on some forums e.g. Guardian website, UKPollingReport of some people using these elections to claim that Momentum activists are ineffective - I agree up to a point for *local elections* where apathy still can reign supreme but do think in certain constituencies the big get out the vote ground game from Momentum activities would still work in a general election - time will tell of course.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:The biggest farce was listening to May trying to paint losing 33 councillors as some sort of a success..

Well, it is a success - they were expected to lose around 75-100 councillors. She can be happy with how they've done. Happier than Corbyn, certainly.

I cannot see losing councillors as a success. Losing being the keyword here. I get the idea that it is some form of damage limitation but the fact that is what the Tories were looking for speaks volumes for the political mess they are in. Labour's results are being hyped up as more of a loss yet they are in a mess of their own with anti-semitism so their performance was better.

When in government, that party tends to get a kicking at local election time.

In 1997, Labour had about 6,000 more elected officials in local government than the Tories; in 2010, the Tories has about 4,500 more.

Currently, Labour have about 3,000 fewer than the Tories. Labour are so far off overhauling a terrible government after eight years that it is almost laughable.

What a stupid post...

1. Labour lost the Local Elections last year and then came within about 10 seats of a LABOUR-SNP coalition.

2. On Thursday's figures Labour would be the largest Party.

3. Labour get a bigger turnout and more tactical votes in GE's..

4. They are neck and neck in the Polls..

5. Miliband had a great night in 2014 locals as did Hague against Blair and both got hammered.....Complete opposite to Corbyn last year.

Labour are a million miles from power ??

ABSOLUTE CRAP.

Yep, rant as much as you like, Labour are light years away from 326 Parliamentary seats.

We’re closer to the great Labour Split, than we are to the next Labour government.

Pathetic response..

Putting you straight is ranting....Bless.

Nothing to suggest Labour are a million miles away from power..

London results alone say nighty night to...Boris...Rudd...Greening..

My advice don't make silly statements..

Oddschecker...Next General Election betting...

Con....Evens
Lab.....Evens

Yep a million miles away folks..

Duty281 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:The biggest farce was listening to May trying to paint losing 33 councillors as some sort of a success..

Well, it is a success - they were expected to lose around 75-100 councillors. She can be happy with how they've done. Happier than Corbyn, certainly.

I cannot see losing councillors as a success. Losing being the keyword here. I get the idea that it is some form of damage limitation but the fact that is what the Tories were looking for speaks volumes for the political mess they are in. Labour's results are being hyped up as more of a loss yet they are in a mess of their own with anti-semitism so their performance was better.

When in government, that party tends to get a kicking at local election time.

In 1997, Labour had about 6,000 more elected officials in local government than the Tories; in 2010, the Tories has about 4,500 more.

Currently, Labour have about 3,000 fewer than the Tories. Labour are so far off overhauling a terrible government after eight years that it is almost laughable.

That holds no bearing on my point. The Tories (in power) are one of only two parties that will ever hold power in Westminster and their main opponents are going through their own turmoil over anti-semetics and yet they have lost over 30 councillors. In no way shape or form can it be painted any sort of show of support or optimism for the party. And lest we forget how many votes they undoubtedly hoovered up from the former UKIP voters.

Yes, trust the odds.  

No party overhauls another without making significant gains in locals first. Learn history.

35% versus 35% at this election. Corbyn’s Labour are a joke.

Heed your own advice, and stop with the silliness. Corbyn has about as much chance of getting a majority in the next GE as Vince Cable does.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:The biggest farce was listening to May trying to paint losing 33 councillors as some sort of a success..

Well, it is a success - they were expected to lose around 75-100 councillors. She can be happy with how they've done. Happier than Corbyn, certainly.

I cannot see losing councillors as a success. Losing being the keyword here. I get the idea that it is some form of damage limitation but the fact that is what the Tories were looking for speaks volumes for the political mess they are in. Labour's results are being hyped up as more of a loss yet they are in a mess of their own with anti-semitism so their performance was better.

When in government, that party tends to get a kicking at local election time.

In 1997, Labour had about 6,000 more elected officials in local government than the Tories; in 2010, the Tories has about 4,500 more.

Currently, Labour have about 3,000 fewer than the Tories. Labour are so far off overhauling a terrible government after eight years that it is almost laughable.

That holds no bearing on my point. The Tories (in power) are one of only two parties that will ever hold power in Westminster and their main opponents are going through their own turmoil over anti-semetics and yet they have lost over 30 councillors. In no way shape or form can it be painted any sort of show of support or optimism for the party. And lest we forget how many votes they undoubtedly hoovered up from the former UKIP voters.

Predicted to lose 75-125. Only lost 30 or so.

A narrow majority of former UKIP seats went to the Tories, many went to Labour.

Theresa May will be happy. Her position was made more secure by Thursday’s elections. Labour missed most of their targets.

Duty281 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:The biggest farce was listening to May trying to paint losing 33 councillors as some sort of a success..

Well, it is a success - they were expected to lose around 75-100 councillors. She can be happy with how they've done. Happier than Corbyn, certainly.

I cannot see losing councillors as a success. Losing being the keyword here. I get the idea that it is some form of damage limitation but the fact that is what the Tories were looking for speaks volumes for the political mess they are in. Labour's results are being hyped up as more of a loss yet they are in a mess of their own with anti-semitism so their performance was better.

When in government, that party tends to get a kicking at local election time.

In 1997, Labour had about 6,000 more elected officials in local government than the Tories; in 2010, the Tories has about 4,500 more.

Currently, Labour have about 3,000 fewer than the Tories. Labour are so far off overhauling a terrible government after eight years that it is almost laughable.

That holds no bearing on my point. The Tories (in power) are one of only two parties that will ever hold power in Westminster and their main opponents are going through their own turmoil over anti-semetics and yet they have lost over 30 councillors. In no way shape or form can it be painted any sort of show of support or optimism for the party. And lest we forget how many votes they undoubtedly hoovered up from the former UKIP voters.

Predicted to lose 75-125. Only lost 30 or so.

A narrow majority of former UKIP seats went to the Tories, many went to Labour.

Theresa May will be happy. Her position was made more secure by Thursday’s elections. Labour missed most of their targets.

The point remains that choices available are pathetic. People including PM trying to paint their party in losing 30+ councillors in a duopoly as some form of victory says it all it really does.

People on this forum know my views but lets just sidestep them for now as this is somewhat of a separate issue. If I were living outwith Scotland (and yes have lived in England) my choices of me voting for a party are one of two if my vote is to count for anything. Either Labour with its anti-semetism or Tories whose policies I find utterly abhorrent - I'd sooner abstain than vote Tory. My point is that surely there must be a window open out there for a new party with new ideas, new ideals, new standards of competency with new options? I would say there is certainly a chasm there and an opportunity out there to scoop up hundreds of thousands of disenchanted voters.

Tories won the Locals by 9% last year....Labour won seats the month after..

Labour are Even money to win the next General Election..

Labour get more tactical votes in General Elections than Tories because local issues are less in play.

Corbyn probably won't be leader..

Labour are level in the Polls with Survation...Opinium and Mori...

A million miles away...Is just silly..

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:The biggest farce was listening to May trying to paint losing 33 councillors as some sort of a success..

Well, it is a success - they were expected to lose around 75-100 councillors. She can be happy with how they've done. Happier than Corbyn, certainly.

I cannot see losing councillors as a success. Losing being the keyword here. I get the idea that it is some form of damage limitation but the fact that is what the Tories were looking for speaks volumes for the political mess they are in. Labour's results are being hyped up as more of a loss yet they are in a mess of their own with anti-semitism so their performance was better.

When in government, that party tends to get a kicking at local election time.

In 1997, Labour had about 6,000 more elected officials in local government than the Tories; in 2010, the Tories has about 4,500 more.

Currently, Labour have about 3,000 fewer than the Tories. Labour are so far off overhauling a terrible government after eight years that it is almost laughable.

That holds no bearing on my point. The Tories (in power) are one of only two parties that will ever hold power in Westminster and their main opponents are going through their own turmoil over anti-semetics and yet they have lost over 30 councillors. In no way shape or form can it be painted any sort of show of support or optimism for the party. And lest we forget how many votes they undoubtedly hoovered up from the former UKIP voters.

Predicted to lose 75-125. Only lost 30 or so.

A narrow majority of former UKIP seats went to the Tories, many went to Labour.

Theresa May will be happy. Her position was made more secure by Thursday’s elections. Labour missed most of their targets.

The point remains that choices available are pathetic. People including PM trying to paint their party in losing 30+ councillors in a duopoly as some form of victory says it all it really does.

It says they understand history and the political system in the U.K.

It may seem an obvious thing to say but how both the Conservatives and Labour handle Brexit will have a big bearing on how the respective parties' fortunes pan out over the next few months.

At the moment, many Leave supporters are giving the government benefit of the doubt, whilst many Remain supporters on the left are giving Labour the benefit of the doubt.  Add to this the economy, and if things start going pear-shaped for the economy in a big way then expect things to start shifting in the polls.  

At the moment there is a feel of things bumping along - Labour holding up despite Corbyn's unpopularity/media treatment of him (delete as appropriate) and Conservatives holding up despite making a big mess of things of late.  Economy is also bumping along - not doing well by any stretch of the imagination but not terribly that huge parts of the electorate start to suffer.  Both Corbyn and May seem reasonably secure for the time being - although I sense that Tories are sharpening knives behind the scenes - expecting the likes of Gove are plotting for something in next 12-18 months.

I think we're in a period of calm before the next storm, but not too sure how things will pan out - all depends on Brexit.

And as an aside, I trust the media will devote as much time on this case as they have to the anti-semitism story in Labour - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44022663