Keith Earls and the number 13

First topic message reminder :

So Munster have named Keith Earls at outside centre against Treviso. This is now Earls' third match in a row where he has played 13 and looks set to continue this against Castres and Northampton. Given his past experience here for Munster, Ireland and Lions is he a certainty to play there against Wales?

Debators ...I am not discussing BOD's replacement. I am discussing who the best option is to play 13 in the 6N. BOD is injured so is irrelevent in this debate. I believe Cave is the best 13 currently in Irish rugby so don't see why it should be anyone else. We can discuss who will replace BOD in 2013 but right now it is about putting a square peg in a square hole.

Stag you feicer!

see geordan murphy has been offered an olive branch to come back for 6 nations. Cannot beat a bit of foward thinking. all a bit odd. murphy sounded almost embarrassed about things

Thomond wrote:Jaysus you Ulster lads are easy to wind up.

Ulster:
Leinster:
Connacht:
Munster: (but only when refs back is turned). When he is watching Munster =

Funny one Stag...and an absolutely clinically sound reading of the Provincial character. I'd have also put this guy beside Leinster but I won't hold it against you....


Anyway, back to the thread. A better game would be for us to ask ourselves bluntly who we think Kidney (and his fellow coaches because despite all the criticism that comes his way, I'm sure he does consult and look for feedback on choices) but, who HE will pick at 12 and 13.

Being honest, and basing it on what we know of Kidney, and given that first game up is against what looks like a resurgent and impressive Welsh side - who do we think HE'LL choose? For my part, I think it's a D'arcy/Earls combo. I'd risk saying a lot of people will suspect that - ie, as little risk as possible taken by Kidney.

...but then that says it all really - because we've all between us seen quite a lot of rugby, we all think we've roughly a good sense of what works where, we all see the general weakness in Irish sides recently; it being mostly inconsistency of performance and a general predictabilty in style. So inconsistently predictable would be the ironic sounding conclusion.

And given that this thread is awash with alternatives to both numbers,and given that people generally accept that the alternatives have merit and might legitmately be chanced; we all must come to the almost rubberstamped conclusion that Kidney will stick with what the French describe as 'predictable' selections. He won't make the opposition think too hard about the players in front of them. They'll have enough video playbacks to work on. And Wales, for starters, will certainly be preparing for the D'arcy/Earls coupling.

I'm not saying that twosome is wrong, I'm just saying that it's known - its strengths an its weakenesses. When are we going to start making opposing coaching sides do a little more homework on the players we send out to meet them?

Standulstermen wrote:
On a tangent. For arguments sake say earls gets the run of 6nations games and heineken cup games at 13 and performs (hardly beyond the realms of possibility). What role we he and BOD play in the summer tour to NZ. Do we shift earls again or move BOD to 12 or drop him

Just for the record - Earls' has 18 starts at HCup level at 13 (23 games) and I don't remember anyone saying he hadn't performed there. Some really good wins as well - USAP down there (French centre partnership - was a bonus point win).

btw, Cave has 15 HCup starts at 13.

Its going to be hard for Cave to break through. I was looking at his club record and he has never played in any other position other than 13 which is amazing. He has to start because he isn't much of a bench option, and do you really think it would be a good idea to start him against Wales in a must win game? Nearly all the others have first of all been subs or got a spot out on the wing to bring them in gently.

BOD spoke recently that he doesn't mind where he plays (he may want to wear No. 13 though). He also said that he has played 12 in the past inside John Kelly way back which nobody seems to realise.

SecretFly - glad to see everyone has gotten over the shock (or have very short memories) of Conor Murray making the world cup squad and Felix Jones nearly making it

Sin é wrote:

Standulstermen wrote:
On a tangent. For arguments sake say earls gets the run of 6nations games and heineken cup games at 13 and performs (hardly beyond the realms of possibility). What role we he and BOD play in the summer tour to NZ. Do we shift earls again or move BOD to 12 or drop him

Yeah...with O'Driscoll at 12, it might release even more 13 sparks and razzle dazzle from Earls.

dublin_dave wrote:see geordan murphy has been offered an olive branch to come back for 6 nations. Cannot beat a bit of foward thinking. all a bit odd. murphy sounded almost embarrassed about things

I read it as if there is an injury crisis, don't be surprised if Geordan is called up (and is willing to come). Don't think he will be in the 6Ns squad though.

Sin é wrote:SecretFly - glad to see everyone has gotten over the shock (or have very short memories) of Conor Murray making the world cup squad and Felix Jones nearly making it

Sin é....we're not back to O'Leary again, are we???? I give Kidney (and his coaching team - I'm not after his neck, believe me) credit for Murray. I just don't want him sitting on his laurels, however forced the final selection was . But keep it coming. Keep us guessing. Keep movement through the side. No, not runaway train movement but enough to get the 'predictable' tag off our backs.

To be honest with Jones injured I would still prefer him over the alternatives if Kearney was injured bar, possibly Earls.

Please not Fitzgerald or Duffy

SecretFly wrote:

Sin é wrote:

Standulstermen wrote:
On a tangent. For arguments sake say earls gets the run of 6nations games and heineken cup games at 13 and performs (hardly beyond the realms of possibility). What role we he and BOD play in the summer tour to NZ. Do we shift earls again or move BOD to 12 or drop him

Yeah...with O'Driscoll at 12, it might release even more 13 sparks and razzle dazzle from Earls.

That combination ended up with 2 tries from Earls' against Wales in Earls' first 6Ns.

Sin é wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Sin é wrote:

Standulstermen wrote:
On a tangent. For arguments sake say earls gets the run of 6nations games and heineken cup games at 13 and performs (hardly beyond the realms of possibility). What role we he and BOD play in the summer tour to NZ. Do we shift earls again or move BOD to 12 or drop him

Yeah...with O'Driscoll at 12, it might release even more 13 sparks and razzle dazzle from Earls.

That combination ended up with 2 tries from Earls' against Wales in Earls' first 6Ns.

I wasn't joking. I meant it. I wouldn't mind that combination at all.

SecretFly wrote:

Sin é wrote:SecretFly - glad to see everyone has gotten over the shock (or have very short memories) of Conor Murray making the world cup squad and Felix Jones nearly making it

Sin é....we're not back to O'Leary again, are we???? I give Kidney (and his coaching team - I'm not after his neck, believe me) credit for Murray. I just don't want him sitting on his laurels, however forced the final selection was . But keep it coming. Keep us guessing. Keep movement through the side. No, not runaway train movement but enough to get the 'predictable' tag off our backs.

No, we're not back to O'Leary. Murray made the squad and then became the starting SH at the world cup. He got the nod ahead of both Reddan & Boss. Judging by all the message boards were hoptting, quite a few people were 'surprised' and I doubt if there was too much video available of Murray available. Jones making the squad ahead of Geordan as well was a bit of a surprise to some people.

Unfortunately, we don't a) have the numbers like Fracne and b) or the time (30 games v. 10/12) like Clubs to have a different lineup every week.

I don’t remember one person on here who was surprised that Murray made the world cup squad.

Sin é wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Sin é wrote:SecretFly - glad to see everyone has gotten over the shock (or have very short memories) of Conor Murray making the world cup squad and Felix Jones nearly making it

Sin é....we're not back to O'Leary again, are we???? I give Kidney (and his coaching team - I'm not after his neck, believe me) credit for Murray. I just don't want him sitting on his laurels, however forced the final selection was . But keep it coming. Keep us guessing. Keep movement through the side. No, not runaway train movement but enough to get the 'predictable' tag off our backs.

No, we're not back to O'Leary. Murray made the squad and then became the starting SH at the world cup. He got the nod ahead of both Reddan & Boss. Judging by all the message boards were hoptting, quite a few people were 'surprised' and I doubt if there was too much video available of Murray available. Jones making the squad ahead of Geordan as well was a bit of a surprise to some people.

Unfortunately, we don't a) have the numbers like Fracne and b) or the time (30 games v. 10/12) like Clubs to have a different lineup every week.

We have enough quality to keep it interesting, both for ourselves and the opposition. I'm not talking about running out 7 or 8 different players per game. I'm talking about losing our 'predictable' tag, and that stretches to personel whether we like the tag or not. In your heart of hearts you agree with me Sin é.

SecretFly wrote:
Anyway, back to the thread. A better game would be for us to ask ourselves bluntly who we think Kidney (and his fellow coaches because despite all the criticism that comes his way, I'm sure he does consult and look for feedback on choices) but, who HE will pick at 12 and 13.

Kidney will pick D'arcy and Earls. No question about it. I would pick McFadden and Cave because they are the best players in their positions available.

D'arcy and Earls present a low risk option for Kidney because he has the support of the bulk of the media, pundits and ex-pros etc and therefore he will avoid critcism if that duo doesn't perform.

Rodders, I would be inclined to say that the reason Kidney picks a low risk option is that he DOESN'T have the support of the media, fans and pundits and is likely to cop big criticism in defeat.

what would represent an acceptable performance lads? i can see France winning it

3rd would be acceptable just if we blood some new players score some tries and play some exciting rugby. if we finish 3rd or 4th doing neither i will be hoping for a change in coach.

Thats what I mean stag, he picks the options that will get him least stick if it goes wrong. He's under big pressure from the IRFU and the media which gives him very little freedom to go against populous opinion.

Most southern fans see very little of Ulster play therefore the feeling amongst most Ireland fans is that beyond Earls and McFadden there is little option at 13.

If Cave gets selected and doesn't perform then Kidney will get far more stick than if he selects Earls.

roddersm wrote:
Most southern fans see very little of Ulster play therefore the feeling amongst most Ireland fans is that beyond Earls and McFadden there is little option at 13.

Hard to see it, if they don't broadcast it, Rodder! Sorry, that's below the belt in a wicked kind of way. Em, having said that, scrap it - it's not below the belt at all *cough*. Forget I said anything actually ......

In fairness Rodds, I said if Cave were picked I'd be happy enough, but I prefer Earls. Not like its a choice betwen say, me and Cave. or me and Earls!

SecretFly wrote:Hard to see it, if they don't broadcast it, Rodder!

Thats the crux. I have the opportunity to watch Munster and Leinster a fair bit but unfortunately there is very little coverage for Ulster outside of NI, bar the odd HEC game.

Declan Kidney comes to a lot of games at Ravenhill unlike Eddie O'Sullivan when he was in charge.

In fact O'Sullivan comes to a higher % of games since he stopped being the Irish coach than when he was - and I not exaggerating either

Is he after a job

sky sports for big hc games about it and occasional rabo game on setanta.

justice for ulster actually lets not go there

in all seriousness. lads see my earlier post. what represents progress and a good performance in 6 nations. i may be a bit hard on kidney at times but some are far too soft on him.

How many Ulster games does George Hook, Neil Francis and Gerry Thornley come to per season?

roddersm wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Hard to see it, if they don't broadcast it, Rodder!

Thats the crux. I have the opportunity to watch Munster and Leinster a fair bit but unfortunately there is very little coverage for Ulster outside of NI, bar the odd HEC game.

Oh I can get BBC NI where I am....just! But I was hinting more at the no show last week, even for their own fans. No live coverage.

So rods, your view is that we're not going to win anyway so we should start Cave!

I think Kidney picks the options which he thinks we have the best chance of getting a result with.

Of course he is under pressure to get results (the more wins, the more money for the IRFU - prize money, sponsor bonus etc).

The other side of the coin with regard to Cave is that he would be put into a pivotal spot in a team that he has been training with for a week in front of a home crowd in a pivotal match in the competition and then head off to France and play an away match in France (has Cave ever been on the winning side away to a French team?).

Kidney might get stick alright for doing that to a player for his international debut.

roddersm wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Hard to see it, if they don't broadcast it, Rodder!

Thats the crux. I have the opportunity to watch Munster and Leinster a fair bit but unfortunately there is very little coverage for Ulster outside of NI, bar the odd HEC game.

Most of us see all the Heineken Cup games and would also see all the interpros.

dublin_dave wrote:what would represent an acceptable performance lads? i can see France winning it

3rd would be acceptable just if we blood some new players score some tries and play some exciting rugby. if we finish 3rd or 4th doing neither i will be hoping for a change in coach.

Acceptable performance?? Well, I won't publish it but a few days ago I got this thought that wouldn't go away - we're going to win the Championship. Damn, I published it!.

Anyway, I do hope we (as in the English speaking members of the Six Nations fraternity) don't get bogged down in the 'invincible French' thing again this year. A lot of it was going down last year and it gets to the point where if you debate the idea, you are seen as some kind of bizarre curiosity idiot who isn't capable of understanding greatness.

France will be France this year again. They'll have powerful games against some and will struggle against others. The Championship might still come off but I think saying they'll have to work for it is not heresy.

On recent 'form' I'd settle for 3rd but would be much more contented with 2nd. 1st is NOT beyond us.

dublin_dave wrote:
in all seriousness. lads see my earlier post. what represents progress and a good performance in 6 nations. i may be a bit hard on kidney at times but some are far too soft on him.

Winning the home games is a must, and in good style, not just armwrestling and stuttering our way to scrappy wins.

There's no shame in losing away to France and England but I'll be disappointed if we only win 3 from 5, although in reality we may struggle to win more than 2 unless there is a big improvment from the RWC.

roddersm wrote:How many Ulster games does George Hook, Neil Francis and Gerry Thornley come to per season?

I think I have seen Thornley a couple of times

Hook and Francis I have never seen - to be honest Francis wouldn't get out alive

geoff998rugby wrote:
to be honest Francis wouldn't get out alive

As valid a reason for not showing up as you're ever likely to get....

Sin é wrote:Most of us see all the Heineken Cup games and would also see all the interpros.

Exactly so thats only a handful of games a season. Ulsters HEC games get very little coverage on TG4 or RTE. By contrast a fair view of Leinster and Munsters RABO games are availble on TG4 or RTE and all of the HEC games are on TG4 or Sky.

A lot of the opinions on Cave are just based on rhetoric rather than watching him play on a regular basis.

Thomond wrote:Jaysus you Ulster lads are easy to wind up.

Yet one bad word about ROG and the Munster boys go into a flurry of stats, comparisons and excuses?

Anyways, Sin, you mentioned BOD and Earls playing together and unfortunately I do not remember this. Was BOD at 12, or Earls?

roddersm wrote:

Sin é wrote:Most of us see all the Heineken Cup games and would also see all the interpros.

Exactly so thats only a handful of games a season. Ulsters HEC games get very little coverage on TG4 or RTE. By contrast a fair view of Leinster and Munsters RABO games are availble on TG4 or RTE and all of the HEC games are on TG4 or Sky.

A lot of the opinions on Cave are just based on rhetoric rather than watching him play on a regular basis.

Anyone who would actually have an opinion on who should replace BOD will have seen all the contenders. Are you trying to tell me that everyone in Ulster will have watched more than a handfull of Munster & Leinster games?

Rory_Gallagher wrote:Anyways, Sin, you mentioned BOD and Earls playing together and unfortunately I do not remember this. Was BOD at 12, or Earls?

It was 1 half of rugby after D'arcy go injured. BOD moved to 12 and Earls scored two tries. Unfortunately we didn't get to see that combo again as we wouldn't be having this debate now as one way or another we'd know whether Earls was up to it or not.

Sin é wrote:
Anyone who would actually have an opinion on who should replace BOD will have seen all the contenders. Are you trying to tell me that everyone in Ulster will have watched more than a handfull of Munster & Leinster games?

No I'm telling you that I have.....so you don't have an opinon on who should play centre then?

Was this 2010? That was the year I did not watch any rugby whatsoever bad times.

SecretFly wrote:

geoff998rugby wrote:
to be honest Francis wouldn't get out alive

As valid a reason for not showing up as you're ever likely to get....

Possibly but give what he has written being hung, drawn and quartered would be too good for him

Rory_Gallagher wrote:Was this 2010? That was the year I did not watch any rugby whatsoever bad times.

March 2010 Rory...you didn't miss much....

Rory_Gallagher wrote:

Thomond wrote:Jaysus you Ulster lads are easy to wind up.

Yet one bad word about ROG and the Munster boys go into a flurry of stats, comparisons and excuses?

Anyways, Sin, you mentioned BOD and Earls playing together and unfortunately I do not remember this. Was BOD at 12, or Earls?

Earls started on the wing and D'Arcy got injured at about 20 mins in. Kearney came on and he moved in one. Earls had a great day - his tackling was excellent.

Worth reading the min. by min summary account here. Sexton had an awful day with the boot.

http://www.espnscrum.com/statsguru/rugby/match/94952.html

Of course, Sexton had to be mentioned Sin

I doubt he would have got a mention had he had a very good game, eh?

Sin é wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Sin é wrote:

Standulstermen wrote:
On a tangent. For arguments sake say earls gets the run of 6nations games and heineken cup games at 13 and performs (hardly beyond the realms of possibility). What role we he and BOD play in the summer tour to NZ. Do we shift earls again or move BOD to 12 or drop him

Yeah...with O'Driscoll at 12, it might release even more 13 sparks and razzle dazzle from Earls.

That combination ended up with 2 tries from Earls' against Wales in Earls' first 6Ns.

Yeah they looked really promising as a centre combo that day. I wanted to see more. But Kidney never tried it again, despite the fact that it seemed to work so well. Even back then we were talking about the Irish midfield as a potential problem. I just wish Kidney had done something about it instead of ending up with ROG/D'arcy/Injured BOD in the RWC quarter final.

roddersm wrote:

Sin é wrote:
Anyone who would actually have an opinion on who should replace BOD will have seen all the contenders. Are you trying to tell me that everyone in Ulster will have watched more than a handfull of Munster & Leinster games?

No I'm telling you that I have.....so you don't have an opinon on who should play centre then?

Of course I have an opinion - but I've seen Cave play live as well in the Ireland v. Connacht game - and I thought he was short on pace in comparison to Fergus McFadden.

Sin é wrote:Of course I have an opinion - but I've seen Cave play live as well in the Ireland v. Connacht game - and I thought he was short on pace in comparison to Fergus McFadden.

Thats a fair but debatable point. Cave is not the quickest of the options but he isn't slow either. Watch his try and assist on Friday or the try he set up against Munster for Terblanche. He is smart, excellent defensively, a good distibutor and has a decent kicking game. In fact he has all the skills you want in a centre and is the next best 13 to O'Driscoll imo.

roddersm wrote:He is smart, excellent defensively, a good distibutor and has a decent kicking game.

Sounds like a 12 to me.

McFadden isn't close to Cave as a 13 imo - always looked better as a 12

Rory_Gallagher wrote:Of course, Sexton had to be mentioned Sin

I doubt he would have got a mention had he had a very good game, eh?

Quote from match report:

"Sexton's been awful today, and this touchline conversion isn't an easy ask, and it's no surprise that he's missed it. Ireland have been average today, but they've been so, so clinical. Every single chance they've had, they've turned into a try. "

I saw that quote and looked up his kicking success rate - it was 43%. Just as well Earls scored 2 tries. Stephen Jones was 80%.

The problem is that if your OH can't punish the opposition for infringements, they just have a field day.

red_stag wrote:

roddersm wrote:He is smart, excellent defensively, a good distibutor and has a decent kicking game.

Sounds like a 12 to me.

Why because you need to be stupid, a poor defender, and have no passing or kicking game to play 13? .....ok Earls it is then.....

Done to death now lads. We have established who prefers cave and who prefers earls. Time to move on.