Wales v Australia, 5 November

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WALES v AUSTRALIA  
5 November 2016
KO: 14:30 GMT
Principality Stadium, Cardiff

Live on BBC Sports

Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant Referees: Jérôme Garcès (France), Federico Anselmi (Argentina)
TMO: Simon McDowell (Ireland)

A. Head to Head

39 Played 39
10 Won 28
1 Drawn 1
28 Lost 10
596 Points 912

B. Recent Form

10 October 2015:
Twickenham Stadium
15 – 6 to Australia
2015 Rugby World Cup Pool A

8 November 2014:
Millennium Stadium
28 – 33 to Australia
2014 Autumn International

30 November 2013:
Millennium Stadium
26 – 30 to Australia
2013 Autumn International

1 December 2012:
Millennium Stadium
12 – 14 to Australia
2012 Autumn International

23 June 2012:
Sydney Football Stadium
20 – 19 to Australia
Welsh Tour of Australia

16 June 2012:
Etihad Stadium
25 – 23 to Australia
Welsh Tour of Australia

9 June 2012:
Suncorp Stadium
27 – 19 to Australia
Welsh Tour of Australia

3 December 2011:
Millennium Stadium
18 – 24 to Australia
2011 Autumn International

C. Teams


WALES 

15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Rhys Webb, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Luke Charteris, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Samson Le, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Gethin Jenkins

Replacements: 16 Scott Baldwin, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Tomas Francis, 19 Cory Hill, 20 James King, 21 Gareth Davies, 22 Sam Davies, 23 Hallam Amos

AUSTRALIA  

15 Israel Folau, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Reece Hodge, 11 Henry Speight, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Lopeti Timani, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 David Pocock, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore (c), 1 Scott Sio

Replacements: 16 Tolu Latu, 17 James Slipper, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Rob Simmons, 20 Scott Fardy, 21 Nick Frisby, 22 Quade Cooper, 23 Sefa Naivalu

I just checked out their second rows. Both taller and heavier than our own. Going to be difficult to outmuscle them. Then you have their predatory back row who will turnover or win penalties if we go wide. Then you have their backs like Foley, Phipps and Folau who are intelligent yet, in the case of the latter, explosive players who can win the 1 on 1's.

Just don't quite see where we can get on top in any of the departments - kicking aside (possibly).

Both their locks are taller and heavier than Clarteris ?

I don't think things are that bad to be fair - we have a fantastic half back pairing, if North is on form then he will take some stopping plus there is a nice balance to our backrow.

I wasn't thinking about Charteris to be fair.

GavinDragon wrote:I wasn't thinking about Charteris to be fair.

Was going to say, there's nearly 7ft and 20 stone of him.

Their lineout jumpers aren't the tallest mind.

6'8 and 6'7 I think. Brad Davies is 6'5. But then we have more height in the back row.

Apparently their 8 has played a lot of 2nd row this year for his club side, so probably helps with lineout options

Are any of your back rowers regular jumpers?

Tipuric, yes.

I think Moriarty can jump. Lydiate less so, but would be a clever option as no one would expect it.

Yeah - sorry that's what I meant.

Lydiate's not a lineout option.

Set piece is clearly where this game will be played. As mentioned, Wales wil be way off the pace, and if they don't want to lose the game in the final quarter, they'll need to get set piece dominance early they can use for penalties later in the game, or they'll have to have blown them out the water early on with points, which is the less likely option.

Ken Owens has been a fantastic thrower, but then has struggled (long with other areas of his game) this season with the Scarlets, and sometimes with Wales too. I think it's more likely we'll look to have a go at their scrum, and hope their lineout is a bit flaky, as I seemed to get the impression from the RC that is was. Samson won't last an hour, so let's hope Francis has been off the pies and is willing to put a big shift in off the bench.

I agree. I would have a go at their scrum, although it has been improved since Ledesma has been involved.

It's that close to the game, it's one of those where you know, deep down, Wales probably won't really better Australia enough in any department, scrum included, to get the win, but equally I'm convincing myself that, yeah, we're going to do it, finally get the monkey off the back, and get a well deserved win.

Quietly optimistic. I think there's a lot that's not right with Welsh rugby at the moment, but all things considered, it hasn't been a bad 12 months for the national team. Did alright in the WC, where the Aus game was the best performance I thought, then equally did quite well in the 6N, bar England and tacking the Ireland game by the scruff of the neck. NZ tour can be viewed as decent as well. Each of those periods had Wales doing certain things well, if not putting in the 'complete' game.

The disappointing thing is Wales haven't seemed able to knit together all those component parts that seem to go well intermittently in consecutive games for a while now. Poor player depth doesn't help. But when the pack does well, our attack then tends to bottle it (Aus WC). If we're playing good attacking rugby, we might have an off day with discipline, perhaps due to fitness (tiredness seemed to be a problem against SA in WC and NZ this Summer). Defence even had problems last season, typically our solid foundation. We're very prone to a shaky lineout, too, which disrupts everything.

The sad thing is that culmination of 'good' things should have come last WC, but didn't quite seem to happen. Next WC is going to be the swansong for the vast majority of this so called golden generation, at least Warburton's era rather than the Ryan Jones side a decade ago, and they're likely to call it a day if they make it til then. I think it represents the best chance for Wales to do the one significant thing (aside from beating the All Blacks) they haven't in the last decade, and that's win a World Cup.

The best way to do that? Get top 4 in the rankings when the draw is made. I don't think we have the player depth to win a World Cup the traditional way. England can lose 8 players to injury before the tournament, and drop another 8 players from the squad due to poor form, and still be competitive when rotating their squad when necessary in the latter stages. Wales are the polar opposite. We need to carry players once we get to that stage, because the drop off in quality is so significant. It's why, if we can avoid playing a SANZAR team in the group, top it, and get the (barring a horrible upset in the other groups) "easier" side of the draw, it would be huge.

I'd like trying to win the World Cup to be the frame of reference for everything the national team does now. It's why picking someone like Cuthbert is slightly confusing. Now's the time to develop depth, if it's there. Howley has previous form for being less rigid in his favouritism than Gatland (think bringing Byrne back into the squad, if not playing him), so hopefully there might be room for genuine challengers as and when they deserve it and not just the token 19 year olds "training" with the squad/holding tackle bags/putting on their best Australian accents.

Let's go out and get four wins from four. SA are clearly having trouble. I think that's the most obvious win, when Wales are up to speed, and (unless they play themselves into surprisingly good form), a tired and homesick SA just trying to get through the game and the end of their season. But Australia are still beatable, if the team has the right frame of mind. It's why AWJ being missing in sad circumstances is such a loss in this regard.

Still, I'm hoping for the best. Is that just blind optimism as the game draws closer though?

I think we could win 3/4. As maiow says, the timing of the SA game favours us, and we should be able to put together something disciplined and cohesive enough to see off Arg. But despite losing 3/6 in this year's Rugby championship, Oz look plenty good enough to win on Saturday - and their scrum looked fine.

Recent interview with Rob Howley by Nick Webb.

Webb: "So Robert tell me how you plan to beat Australia?"
Howley: "Basically fam, we've got the Lions back 3."
Webb: "Umm... Robert have you payed attention to players playing-form as of late?"
Howley: "Nah fam. The Lions back 3 is going to run all over them mate."

This thread seems awfully quiet for a build up to a International game

GavinDragon wrote:This thread seems awfully quiet for a build up to a International game

Not much more to say - we've been here so many times before, closely matched teams but Wales not having the minerals to close out the game or comeback at the death.

I don't know if I would even celebrate winning the game its become such a farce.

Ha. Depends on the nature of the game I suppose. I certainly don't count our 12-6 win over South Africa as a big scalp given how many they had missing.

GavinDragon wrote:Ha. Depends on the nature of the game I suppose. I certainly don't count our 12-6 win over South Africa as a big scalp given how many they had missing.

It'll bringn some much needed closure.

GavinDragon wrote:This thread seems awfully quiet for a build up to a International game

I can't get that excited about the AIs.

Do we all agree with CW comments about us only being content to win 6n and beat England?

It's SCW. Don't forget the S.

I disagree with everything the arch self publicist says but I def disagree with this.

I was ecstatic after we beat Aus in 2008, beating any SA team is brilliant, his beloved red rose hasn't managed it in quite some time.

I loved our progress in the last couple of RWC - helping knock out the hosts was a little bit sweeter as it was England and I live here but it was certainly not the be all and end all.

Yes, but we posters on here are far more interested in rugby that 75% of those who go through the turnstyles at the PS.

True dat.

TBH while England are aguably the second best side in the world right now, I'd still trade a clean sweep this Autumn for a 4th or 5th place in the 6n. We do need to start beating SH teams just to end the psychological block we have with them.

GavinDragon wrote:TBH while England are aguably the second best side in the world right now, I'd still trade a clean sweep this Autumn for a 4th or 5th place in the 6n. We do need to start beating SH teams just to end the psychological block we have with them.

We do better against SH teams when he have a NH ref. Not thrilled about having Joubert ref

Just have to be bloody good at the breakdown. We cannot afford runners to get isolated tomorrow. Id be happy with up the jumper stuff (providing we get over the gainline)

GavinDragon wrote:Just have to be bloody good at the breakdown. We cannot afford runners to get isolated tomorrow. Id be happy with up the jumper stuff (providing we get over the gainline)

I'd take a 3-0 win

GavinDragon wrote:Just have to be bloody good at the breakdown. We cannot afford runners to get isolated tomorrow. Id be happy with up the jumper stuff (providing we get over the gainline)

Tips will be isolated a little v Pocock and Hooper. Jenkins will help, but I know the way we play means we will be isolated more.

Yes he will RG which is why carrying short, where we should have front 5 forwards available, will negate their threat - strength in numbers and all that. Problem is if we are not dynamic enough in carrying and don't get over the gainline, we are stuffed.

RiscaGame wrote:

GavinDragon wrote:Just have to be bloody good at the breakdown. We cannot afford runners to get isolated tomorrow. Id be happy with up the jumper stuff (providing we get over the gainline)

Tips will be isolated a little v Pocock and Hooper. Jenkins will help, but I know the way we play means we will be isolated more.

Bit worried about that myself.

I hope Howley isn't afraid to make changes if certain players are having poor games.

Whose likely to be back from Injury soon ?

Warbs and SW Im guessing ? Hopefully Sanjay ?

If warburton is playing 6 for the Blouse this weekend, then he's a cert. Sanjay is dependant on training early next week, but expected to be ok. No word on Scott yet, is there?

I still dont know if hes injured or just being rested.

Faletau is still the biggest loss but I'd much rather they not rush him back/

Dodger's Dragon aired and ready, already?
Excellent.

Good luck Wales

The Wallabies are struggling to engineer tries and you guys are good in defence. Kick the points.

I honestly believe that if Wales can stick to Edwards' defensive structure and Halfpenny kicks his goals then Wales will win this.

I would be more confident if Liam Dubya was on the field but even so.

Nice to see Wales has some alternatives to Warbuton, who has not been at his best for quite some time.

ebop wrote:Good luck Wales

The Wallabies are struggling to engineer tries and you guys are good in defence. Kick the points.

Not anymore we're not. I'm almost glad to be missing today's game so will be staying away - also it's become rather tedious watching us lose to SH teams and Craig Joubert.

One shocking stat for me is Halfpenny has scored just 1 try in his last 27 games for wales, i think if wales want to be among the top 4 sides in the world they need to play halfpenny on the wing and liam williams when fit should resume at full back, its such a big part of the southern hemisphere game to have a full back that can counter attack and score tries, it comes as no surprise to me that we have such a poor record against the top sides.
In saying that i hope he has a stormer today, looking forward to the game!

JD2 out with hamstring, SW in

Should have started with SW anyway IMO we will be much more likely to score tries with him in midfield

PotNoodleMiner wrote:Should have started with SW anyway IMO we will be much more likely to score tries with him in midfield

Hes not fully fit

If he isn't fully fit, then I guess North is having a bash at 13 at some point then.

George Carlin wrote:I honestly believe that if Wales can stick to Edwards' defensive structure and Halfpenny kicks his goals then Wales will win this.

I would be more confident if Liam Dubya was on the field but even so.

Nice to see Wales has some alternatives to Warbuton, who has not been at his best for quite some time.

Tipuric has outplayed warburton for years at regional level but Gatland has his favourites that must play all the time........

ebop wrote:Good luck Wales

The Wallabies are struggling to engineer tries and you guys are good in defence. Kick the points.

We used to be.

Just switched on the telly to see which channel the Wales/Oz game is on, BBC1, oh bugger, that means Eddie Butler will be commenting, with all his gaffs, 5 seconds behind the run of play commentary and droning voice. Can't the BBC see the crispness and technical punditry of Sky and BT, the upto date knowledge of the commentors and all the TV wizardry which goes with modern day sporting transmissions.

True Raven wrote:

George Carlin wrote:I honestly believe that if Wales can stick to Edwards' defensive structure and Halfpenny kicks his goals then Wales will win this.

I would be more confident if Liam Dubya was on the field but even so.

Nice to see Wales has some alternatives to Warbuton, who has not been at his best for quite some time.

Tipuric has outplayed warburton  for years at regional level but Gatland has his favourites that must play all the time........

Years spent standing on the wing does not a good open-side make. Next you'll be telling us James Davies is next in line.

Before you reply, I acknowledge Tips is in very good form right now. It's great what the guy can accomplish when he actually plays like a flanker.

Best of luck to the Welsh fans out there today, really hoping you get a win. Its a good chance here as the Aussies have been out of form.

Serious question.. If the 4th game isn't selling out against a team like Australia, is there enough of a financial incentive to keep doing them?

Guess anything is better than nothing if you're being greedy.